Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

[Blessed Weather]

For understandable reasons - particularly given the current energy backdrop - early thoughts and forecasts about the upcoming winter have been appearing across the forum, including the model, autumn and ENSO threads.

It’s a little earlier than normal, but rather than such posts being scattered about and 'lost', here’s a new thread to capture your thoughts and to enjoy some early winter chat.  

Please use this thread for weather related discussion and avoid politics. Thank you.

For info, other related threads available are:

Does the possibility of a cold winter this year worry you?

Energy prices/crisis

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

For understandable reasons - particularly given the current energy backdrop - early thoughts and forecasts about the upcoming winter have been appearing across the forum, including the model, autumn and ENSO threads.

It’s a little earlier than normal, but rather than such posts being scattered about and 'lost', here’s a new thread to capture your thoughts and to enjoy some early winter chat.  

Please use this thread for weather related discussion and avoid politics. Thank you.

For info, other related threads available are:

Does the possibility of a cold winter this year worry you?

Energy prices/crisis

Sorry BW that will be my fault I didn't know where to post ECM seasonal model update.

Some talk of the Tonga eruption having an impact on the NH and the EC seasonal looks quite interesting at this early juncture..

[Blessed Weather]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Sorry BW that will be my fault I didn't know where to post ECM seasonal model update.

Some talk of the Tonga eruption having an impact on the NH and the EC seasonal looks quite interesting at this early juncture..

No problem nws, after all the ECM seasonal is still model output. Not saying that this was what happened, but speaking generally, if folk then want to get involved in follow-up discussion about the winter prospects it's better done here rather than the Mod thread.

If you don't mind, I'll reproduce the ECM seasonal forecast charts you posted to get this thread moving:

Some similarities to the ERA composite 500 heights anomaly for La Nina winters, no doubt a major input to the ECM forecasts?

Worth a read is the first look at winter 2022/23 by Severe Weather Europe (source of the chart above), written by our old friend and Netweather member Andrej:

Winter forecast 2022/2023* First in-depth look at Winter and how the weather patterns will develop under the new La Nina influence

 

[jules216]

I have got a firm idea of my best analog year for december - 2000. It ties with -1.6 NAO Sigma of latest EC monthly,Also with P.Roundy lowpass analogs. Actually a hybrid 2000/2020 is my favorite. The upshot of this is coldest weather to be in UK,Spain,Portugal with poorly placed east Európe high pressure. Lack of deep cold, but that to help strat warming later - Ural high, then coupled with weakening Nina a possiblity of colder shots second half of winter. Overal a little bit more southerly jet stream then 2013/14 but very wet winter in UK,possibly slightly colder

[summer blizzard]

I won't make a forecast at this stage but we have a La Nina, -PDO and are not in solar minimum, we also have a +QBO. 

-ONI Q1 (ignoring first years) - 1951, 1956, 1975, 1976, 1985, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2018, 2021, 2022

-PDO Q1 -  1951, 1952, 1953, 1954, 1955, 1956, 1957, 1962, 1966, 1967, 1969, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022

+QBO - 1979, 1981, 1983, 1985, 1986, 1988, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2021

Strongest potential analogies - 1951, 1956, 1975, 1976, 2000, 2009, 2021

99/00 and 20/21 are the strongest analogues potentially. 2009 gets discounted due to being at solar minimum and 1951, 1956, 1975 and 1976 are before standardised data for the QBO. 

[jules216]

39 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I won't make a forecast at this stage but we have a La Nina, -PDO and are not in solar minimum, we also have a +QBO. 

-ONI Q1 (ignoring first years) - 1951, 1956, 1975, 1976, 1985, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2018, 2021, 2022

-PDO Q1 -  1951, 1952, 1953, 1954, 1955, 1956, 1957, 1962, 1966, 1967, 1969, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022

+QBO - 1979, 1981, 1983, 1985, 1986, 1988, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2021

Strongest potential analogies - 1951, 1956, 1975, 1976, 2000, 2009, 2021

99/00 and 20/21 are the strongest analogues potentially. 2009 gets discounted due to being at solar minimum and 1951, 1956, 1975 and 1976 are before standardised data for the QBO. 

You mean 2000/01 no? As you hit 2000x3 while 1999 only x 2. 

[summer blizzard]

5 minutes ago, jules216 said:

You mean 2000/01 no? As you hit 2000x3 while 1999 only x 2. 

Nope. 99/00 is a hit on all three. 00/01 fails on the QBO and PDO front. I should removed 1999 as a first year.

Edited September 6, 2022 by summer blizzard

[SunSean]

I massively prefer Spring & Summer but a Winter with a mix of snow and plenty of crisp cold but sunny days would make the season very enjoyable. Unfortunately we normally get dull and wet here lol. Having said that, i do have a strange feeling that December 2022 will feature snow.

[Don]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

99/00 and 20/21 are the strongest analogues potentially. 2009 gets discounted due to being at solar minimum and 1951, 1956, 1975 and 1976 are before standardised data for the QBO. 

Just have to hope 20/21 wins the race then! 

[jules216]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Nope. 99/00 is a hit on all three. 00/01 fails on the QBO and PDO front. I should removed 1999 as a first year.

2000 is a massive analog in regards to solar flux and qbo.

[jules216]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Nope. 99/00 is a hit on all three. 00/01 fails on the QBO and PDO front. I should removed 1999 as a first year.

On the -ONI q1 if you put 2000 not 1999 IT is confusing as I would presume you mean ONi of the first quarter of 2000 year, not q1 preceding winter that end in February 2000

[damianslaw]

11 hours ago, jules216 said:

I have got a firm idea of my best analog year for december - 2000. It ties with -1.6 NAO Sigma of latest EC monthly,Also with P.Roundy lowpass analogs. Actually a hybrid 2000/2020 is my favorite. The upshot of this is coldest weather to be in UK,Spain,Portugal with poorly placed east Európe high pressure. Lack of deep cold, but that to help strat warming later - Ural high, then coupled with weakening Nina a possiblity of colder shots second half of winter. Overal a little bit more southerly jet stream then 2013/14 but very wet winter in UK,possibly slightly colder

Interesting 2000 and 2020 Decembers, these did bring some cold weather at times, Dec 2020 a cold start and end, 2000 just a cold last week.

Jan-Feb 01 and 21 were quite similiar, mild conditions generally suppressed with some cold weather,but never particularly extreme. Dec 00 was very wet.

[Don]

27 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Interesting 2000 and 2020 Decembers, these did bring some cold weather at times, Dec 2020 a cold start and end, 2000 just a cold last week.

Jan-Feb 01 and 21 were quite similiar, mild conditions generally suppressed with some cold weather,but never particularly extreme. Dec 00 was very wet.

The Christmas to New Year cold spell in December 2000 was more potent than that in 2020.  However, there were definitely similarities between 00/01 and 20/21 and were both better the further north you went.  However, on balance I think 00/01 was probably a better winter overall with the cold weather in late February continuing well into March, whereas February 21 turned very mild after the cold second week and March was also mild.  I know April and May last year were cold, but that's too late really for decent winter weather.  That said, I wouldn't complain if we were to have a 20/21 repeat!

[damianslaw]

26 minutes ago, Don said:

The Christmas to New Year cold spell in December 2000 was more potent than that in 2020.  However, there were definitely similarities between 00/01 and 20/21 and were both better the further north you went.  However, on balance I think 00/01 was probably a better winter overall with the cold weather in late February continuing well into March, whereas February 21 turned very mild after the cold second week and March was also mild.  I know April and May last year were cold, but that's too late really for decent winter weather.  That said, I wouldn't complain if we were to have a 20/21 repeat!

Yes late Dec 2000 much more potent than 2020, but the cold lasted much longer into Jan 2021 than 2001.. at least in the north. Take the point second half of Feb and March of 2021 generally mild, unlike 2001. 

 

[John S2]

Early days, but model output plus what has happened so far this September suggest the possibility that Sept 2022 might finish wetter than average for much of the country. Historically there has been a significant difference between the winter CET following a dry August depending on whether September is wet or dry.

Group 1: 1976, 1981, 1984, 1995 - following winter CETs 3.2, 2.4, 2.7, 3.0 respectively, all 4 Septembers wet

Group 2: 1947, 1959, 1991, 2003 - following winter CETs 5.1, 4.6, 4.5, 4.7 respectively, all 4 Septembers dry

[Sunny76]

Going for an early cold winter, with a mild damp November, with many dull days. A mild start to December, with mostly cold and sunny weather from around the 10th until the new year.

A cold snowy week in the first half of January, with some very cold days and nights. 
 

Winter will turn milder in the second half of January with daytime temps reaching or staying above 10c. Staying dull and mild until the end of Feb.

[Don]

55 minutes ago, John S2 said:

Early days, but model output plus what has happened so far this September suggest the possibility that Sept 2022 might finish wetter than average for much of the country. Historically there has been a significant difference between the winter CET following a dry August depending on whether September is wet or dry.

Group 1: 1976, 1981, 1984, 1995 - following winter CETs 3.2, 2.4, 2.7, 3.0 respectively, all 4 Septembers wet

Group 2: 1947, 1959, 1991, 2003 - following winter CETs 5.1, 4.6, 4.5, 4.7 respectively, all 4 Septembers dry

Interesting comparisons there.  However, my concern for this September is that it's looking to be another potentially very warm month.  However, still fairly early days but the models do not show any sign of a significant cool down.

[damianslaw]

6 hours ago, John S2 said:

Early days, but model output plus what has happened so far this September suggest the possibility that Sept 2022 might finish wetter than average for much of the country. Historically there has been a significant difference between the winter CET following a dry August depending on whether September is wet or dry.

Group 1: 1976, 1981, 1984, 1995 - following winter CETs 3.2, 2.4, 2.7, 3.0 respectively, all 4 Septembers wet

Group 2: 1947, 1959, 1991, 2003 - following winter CETs 5.1, 4.6, 4.5, 4.7 respectively, all 4 Septembers dry

Interesting comparisons, been a long time since we had a Warm dry Aug, wet September, 1995 the last time, and I've noted the strong comparisons with 1995 and 2022 so far. 1976 also a strong comparator. 1976 and 1995 were nearer average temp wise though, 2022 is looking a mild possibly very mild one, but it may be the wet signal is the most important factor.

None of the winters were in the exceptional mild category at least, though the second group only produced temporary cold at times. Dec 76, 81 and 95 brought very cold Decembers interestingly.

[sebastiaan1973]

https://twitter.com/giacomomasato/status/1566529522106769409

Intresting view of things to come. 

Edited September 8, 2022 by sebastiaan1973

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

https://twitter.com/giacomomasato/status/1566529522106769409

Intresting view of things to come. 

I'm guessing Glosea seasonal will update soon ..

Might be interesting  

 

Edited September 8, 2022 by northwestsnow

[Don]

41 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm guessing Glosea seasonal will update soon ..

Might be interesting  

 

Hopefully it will move in line with the latest ECM seasonal update?!

Edited September 8, 2022 by Don

[Penrith Snow]

For what it's worth, summer 1976 was similar to 2022 and September/October 1976 were exceptionally wet and thundery with high SSTs.

November 1976 was pretty average but cold weather arrived in early December and persisted untill, early February with several notable snowfalls.

Winter 1976/77 was a cold, snowy one and the first cold winter for 6 years.

Would be nice to think that history would repeat itself 

Andy

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I am going for December being the best winter month for coldies this time round, with many cold days and frosty mornings with a snowfall or two in places.

I think it will turn unsettled from around Christmas day though, with many rainy periods and named storms. February will be quiet and closer to average with a mild springlike spell late in the month.

 

 

 

Edited September 8, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Earthshine]

Honestly have no idea what to expect this winter.  I'd err on the side of mild just because that seems to have been the standard for the last 10 years.  However this year has been remarkably extreme with the jet stream all over the place so perhaps we could tap into some cold!

[Don]

40 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Honestly have no idea what to expect this winter.  I'd err on the side of mild just because that seems to have been the standard for the last 10 years.  However this year has been remarkably extreme with the jet stream all over the place so perhaps we could tap into some cold!

Keeping a close eye on September currently!