Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

[Don]

2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

GLOSEA September update summary- meh

There are some positives and some negatives-

We haven’t got the deep blues over Greenland there and we’ve got troughing over the UK…which doesn’t preclude some decent polar NWly incursions. 

Seen worse charts but was hoping for a better update from GLOSEA!  Got potential to be ok for the northern half of the UK but probably pretty naff for the south.

[blizzard81]

2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

GLOSEA September update summary- meh

There are some positives and some negatives-

We haven’t got the deep blues over Greenland there and we’ve got troughing over the UK…which doesn’t preclude some decent polar NWly incursions. 

I think you summed up that one very nicely with the word 'meh'. It really is. What worries me is that it looks like a watered down version of the Ecm update. We all know how that model loves to over blow the heights over Greenland. 

[Don]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I think you summed up that one very nicely with the word 'meh'. It really is. What worries me is that it looks like a watered down version of the Ecm update. We all know how that model loves to over blow the heights over Greenland. 

It will hinge on how far south the jet will track.  At least there is no Euro slug and as others have pointed out, the Azores High is displaced a long way west!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

I wouldn't stress over the seasonals much and the GLO5EA looks better on the 500hpa view with blocking taking on the Omega shape and low pressure toward Spain / Africa 

[sebastiaan1973]

13 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

That is a La Nina feature but also aided by the warm N Pacific too, a feature since 2013/14 really. Someday it may swing back cold again

or not https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00461-2

[Catacol]

12 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I wouldn't stress over the seasonals much and the GLO5EA looks better on the 500hpa view with blocking taking on the Omega shape and low pressure toward Spain / Africa 

These 3 month smoothed average anomalies are about as much use as chocolate teapot but the big anomalies can signpost the dominant long wave pattern. I see two big features - the never ending north pacific high and the strong SCEuro anomaly. Both have become familiar "friends." In truth this is a poor long wave setup UK cold and remember the oceans are warm - so the cold air screaming through the US on a NW to SE trajectory exits the atlantic and fires up into vigorous low pressure. With that SCEuro high in place those lows stall right over the UK.

I'm going to clutch my stated straw. The ScEuro anomaly is good one for helping setup vortex stress. 2018 was built upon the same anomaly blocking the atlantic and creating vertical wave flux that caused a horrendous vortex shudder. Much then depends on exactly where that north pacific high sets up and how the alaskan low behaves. It is not beyond the bounds of possibility to get good wave 2 shots from this setup, and if an SSW occurs then these smoothed anomaly charts go out the window as far as I am concerned.

However from that chart I would favour a mild to average temperature winter with above average precipitation. SSW an outside bet to shake things up.

[Don]

2 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

or not https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00461-2

A rather grim reading, not only for what happens around our shores but also for marine life!  One slight positive is there has been a cooling during the last couple of weeks in the North Eastern Pacific but still remains very warm.

[Methuselah]

Well, apart from my having little or no ability to forecast the weather, in three months' time, there's really only one guess I'll make: with all that residual warm air over southern Europe, and the anomalously warm Atlantic SSTs, I'll guess that the only way we'll any sustained, deep cold will be via an SSW. Good for fuel bills; not so good for blizzard-watching?

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

1 hour ago, Catacol said:

These 3 month smoothed average anomalies are about as much use as chocolate teapot but the big anomalies can signpost the dominant long wave pattern. I see two big features - the never ending north pacific high and the strong SCEuro anomaly. Both have become familiar "friends." In truth this is a poor long wave setup UK cold and remember the oceans are warm - so the cold air screaming through the US on a NW to SE trajectory exits the atlantic and fires up into vigorous low pressure. With that SCEuro high in place those lows stall right over the UK.

I'm going to clutch my stated straw. The ScEuro anomaly is good one for helping setup vortex stress. 2018 was built upon the same anomaly blocking the atlantic and creating vertical wave flux that caused a horrendous vortex shudder. Much then depends on exactly where that north pacific high sets up and how the alaskan low behaves. It is not beyond the bounds of possibility to get good wave 2 shots from this setup, and if an SSW occurs then these smoothed anomaly charts go out the window as far as I am concerned.

However from that chart I would favour a mild to average temperature winter with above average precipitation. SSW an outside bet to shake things up.

Always appreciate your thoughts Catacol especially if there has been any SSW activity you really know your stuff in that area. I've said a couple of times one of the big things I'm intrigued to see for this autumn & winter are the possible effects of the record Atlantic SST's which are causing a bit of split opinions on possibilities (which is great, that's what the forum is about, it'd be a bit boring if we all approached Forecasting in the same way with the same opinions ) I'm thinking it could equal HIGH pressure in the Atlantic sector in a similar way the Pacific warm SST's have been creating the Pacific High through the last number of winters, which these seasonals posted by @CreweCold and @Uncertainy on the previous page suggest could happen.

  I'm trying to remember was there a SSW before the Feb 2021 easterly  

[damianslaw]

14 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I wouldn't stress over the seasonals much and the GLO5EA looks better on the 500hpa view with blocking taking on the Omega shape and low pressure toward Spain / Africa 

The strong heights over west atlantic seaboard correlate with the very high SSTs we have in that region right now.. and does seem therefore very plausible. Conversely we see the long wave trough over eastern atlantic seaboard.. it looks like the jet would be NW- SE aligned squeezed between heights to the SW and NE. This would allow for quite a bit of polar air influence. Whilst not a pattern conducive for signficant or sustained cold, it is also one not conducive for signficant or sustained mild either. Could result in a very changeable variable picture, sometimes mild, sometimes cold, sometimes rain, sometimes snowy, sometimes dry and frosty, sometimes stormy.. a real mix, most of our recent winters have been very homogenous with one type of weather dominating, often the wet mild variety. 17-18 and 20-21 only really varied winters since 12-13.

Edited September 12, 2022 by damianslaw

[Don]

45 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

  I'm trying to remember was there a SSW before the Feb 2021 easterly  

Yes there was on the 5th January.

[Don]

37 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

The strong heights over west atlantic seaboard correlate with the very high SSTs we have in that region right now.. and does seem therefore very plausible. Conversely we see the long wave trough over eastern atlantic seaboard.. it looks like the jet would be NW- SE aligned squeezed between heights to the SW and NE. This would allow for quite a bit of polar air influence. Whilst not a pattern conducive for signficant or sustained cold, it is also one not conducive for signficant or sustained mild either. Could result in a very changeable variable picture, sometimes mild, sometimes cold, sometimes rain, sometimes snowy, sometimes dry and frosty, sometimes stormy.. a real mix, most of our recent winters have been very homogenous with one type of weather dominating, often the wet mild variety. 17-18 and 20-21 only really varied winters since 12-13.

I think it could well be another winter which is better the further north you go, a bit like 20/21?  However, it might not be particularly great for areas south of the Midlands, often being on the wrong side of marginal?

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

  I'm trying to remember was there a SSW before the Feb 2021 easterly  

As Don has already said - yes there was. We were a bit unlucky in 2020/21. We got a pretty decent setup on the back of the SSW but there is still an element of luck to how things pan out and a really cold draw eluded us. It was chilly - there was a bit of white stuff around but a proper white out away from the usual favoured spots there was not!

Still - bring on the hunt. I have become much less optimistic than I was 10 years ago and have seen much less snow than was the case in my memorable younger days roughly 1979 to 1996 when good snow falls arrived on and off as the seasons rolled at a fairly decent rate.....but even in a warming world surrounded by heating oceans there is still that outlier year to hope for. 2010 took everyone by surprise. 2018 was glorious in its downwelling vortex chaos. Roll on the next moment of sheer barking madness.

Edited September 12, 2022 by Catacol

[sebastiaan1973]

In the autumn of 2020 Glosea5 overestimated La Nina. i suppose it's doing it again. You can read it yourself in the link below. 

I think we should keep in mind that Glosea5 overestimated the strength of La Nina in the autumn of 2020. Perhaps it's doing it again. 

 

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/asl.1126

Edited September 12, 2022 by sebastiaan1973

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

In the autumn of 2020 Glosea5 overestimated La Nina. i suppose it's doing it again. You can read it yourself in the link below. 

I think we should keep in mind that Glosea5 overestimated the strength of La Nina in the autumn of 2020. Perhaps it's doing it again. 

 

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/asl.1126

Difference this year is we have a triple dip La Nina which has only happened twice before since 1950

[Frost HoIIow]

4 hours ago, Catacol said:

As Don has already said - yes there was. We were a bit unlucky in 2020/21. We got a pretty decent setup on the back of the SSW but there is still an element of luck to how things pan out and a really cold draw eluded us. It was chilly - there was a bit of white stuff around but a proper white out away from the usual favoured spots there was not!

Still - bring on the hunt. I have become much less optimistic than I was 10 years ago and have seen much less snow than was the case in my memorable younger days roughly 1979 to 1996 when good snow falls arrived on and off as the seasons rolled at a fairly decent rate.....but even in a warming world surrounded by heating oceans there is still that outlier year to hope for. 2010 took everyone by surprise. 2018 was glorious in its downwelling vortex chaos. Roll on the next moment of sheer barking madness.

Haha yes why do we do it to ourselves? Get to now with these longer nights and I start to really look forward to the chase even if it's futile!

[Don]

1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

In the autumn of 2020 Glosea5 overestimated La Nina. i suppose it's doing it again. You can read it yourself in the link below. 

I think we should keep in mind that Glosea5 overestimated the strength of La Nina in the autumn of 2020. Perhaps it's doing it again. 

 

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/asl.1126

The CFSv2 is going for a moderate La Nina this winter.  Similar to 2020, we are also in a W-QBO.  However, solar activity is more active now, so that's something else to factor in.

[Don]

4 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Haha yes why do we do it to ourselves? Get to now with these longer nights and I start to really look forward to the chase even if it's futile!

I don't know?!  Every year I say, next year I will book a winter holiday to Canada but never do and instead get excited over the chase here lol!

[MP-R]

7 hours ago, Don said:

Yes there was on the 5th January.

Unfortunate really as we were already in the midst of a cold spell that broke a week or so later, to be replaced by a rather wet chilly mess for many (although a decent snowfall did occur from the west on the 24th).

[damianslaw]

33 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Unfortunate really as we were already in the midst of a cold spell that broke a week or so later, to be replaced by a rather wet chilly mess for many (although a decent snowfall did occur from the west on the 24th).

Scotland endured a consistently cold period from Christmas Eve through until mid February. As evidenced by the fact a number of lochs began to freeze by early February.

[MP-R]

14 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Scotland endured a consistently cold period from Christmas Eve through until mid February. As evidenced by the fact a number of lochs began to freeze by early February.

A good winter north of the border... followed by a very decent summer by their standards too. 

[Don]

8 minutes ago, MP-R said:

A good winter north of the border... followed by a very decent summer by their standards too. 

Indeed and I think it was a decent winter for the Midlands northwards?  Was an ok winter in the south (by recent standards!) with some cold and a little snow at times.  Like you say, there was a decent snowfall on the 24th January.

Edited September 12, 2022 by Don

[MP-R]

12 minutes ago, Don said:

Indeed and I think it was a decent winter for the Midlands northwards?  Was an ok winter in the south (by recent standards!) with some cold and a little snow at times.  Like you say, there was a decent snowfall on the 24th January.

Yes down here it was a decent winter compared to some of the worst, but at face value it was around what I would expect from a standard winter.

[CoxR]

The c3s mult-system forecast for Winter looks virtually identical to the one at this time last year...

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Found on twitter, I'm not sure where to find the charts on the meteo france site but looks like ECM charts