Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

[lassie23]

Everyone looking forward to a winter of constant SW winds and rain. My prediction for Christmas day 11c sunny.

[Don]

10 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Everyone looking forward to a winter of constant SW winds and rain. My prediction for Christmas day 11c sunny.

Us coldies always hope for something different for the upcoming winter, but in reality it's mostly always the same!! 

[Sunny76]

13 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Everyone looking forward to a winter of constant SW winds and rain. My prediction for Christmas day 11c sunny.

Sounds like 1987. Christmas Day that year very sunny and mild and around 13c or more. It felt like that. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Based purely on historic data I’ll go for a cold Christmas period this year.

[weathergeek]

13 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

It snow in London in late October 2008. I remember it feeling very cold and unusual. Light flurries was all that fell, but this was the precursor to the next 4-5 years of mainly colder winters in the U.K.

It snowed big time in early April of 2008 too so only 6mths between snow events that year! I was 8mths pregnant with my daughter, walking through a fair layer of snow... a month later she was born into very high temps!!

[Don]

22 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

It snowed big time in early April of 2008 too so only 6mths between snow events that year! I was 8mths pregnant with my daughter, walking through a fair layer of snow... a month later she was born into very high temps!!

Yes, that was April 6th.  May 2008 was very warm and summery but June, July and August were pretty poor for summer lovers and the rest of the year was generally on the cool side leading into a cold winter.

Edited September 26, 2022 by Don

[E17boy]

Hi peeps,

Hope everyone is well . I have not posted for ages but here I am ready for the rollercoaster winter ride. My instincts are telling me this winter might throw something different to what we have seen in previous years. 
 

I think it is still too early to make any kind of predictions for the coming season, maybe once we have gone past mid October into early November we might have some sort of idea of how the general pattern is forming up. It’s still September but what I feel is different about this September so far is it’s been really cool especially today in London where the max forecast is 13 or 14 deg. It has been so me time since I have seen a cool September, and Ii think we will come out with a lower CT for this month compared to the last few years. Whether this is telling us something about the coming season who knows but some do believe there is a link.

 

Yes as some previous posts have suggested we always get these false hopes at the beginning and then the PV ramps up to bring us coldies misery. However I feel there is a question mark for this winter and it will all depend how the weather patterns fall into place in the coming weeks. Even with the Mets contingency plan they are still saying that there is a slight chance of colder weather with wintry hazards. 
 

We are in the unknown at the moment and I think give it a couple more weeks , then we can maybe have some idea. But who knows what the season May throw at us, hopefully this time it will not be the near misses that we have had in the past. Fingers crossed HLB will play for us coldies this time round. Wishing you all a great day.

take care

regards

[Sunny76]

9 hours ago, weathergeek said:

It snowed big time in early April of 2008 too so only 6mths between snow events that year! I was 8mths pregnant with my daughter, walking through a fair layer of snow... a month later she was born into very high temps!!

Yeah 2008 did see a shift to colder periods.

9 hours ago, Don said:

Yes, that was April 6th.  May 2008 was very warm and summery but June, July and August were pretty poor for summer lovers and the rest of the year was generally on the cool side leading into a cold winter.

There was a thunderstorm in July that year I think, but it was one of those summers I tend to forget.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Let's not be hoping for freezing conditions, snow and blizzards this winter especially after all the worry and concern we had in July over a two day heat wave killing thousands...  

[booferking]

12 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Let's not be hoping for freezing conditions, snow and blizzards this winter especially after all the worry and concern we had in July over a two day heat wave killing thousands...  

We've had record heat now for record cold

[Sunny76]

13 minutes ago, booferking said:

We've had record heat now for record cold

Record cold will kill more people. 

[Premiere Neige]

9 hours ago, 38.7°C said:

Let's not be hoping for freezing conditions, snow and blizzards this winter especially after all the worry and concern we had in July over a two day heat wave killing thousands...  

If hope had anything to do with it every winter would have snow and ice for 3 months. Unfortunately it doesn't work like that. 

[John88B]

7 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

If hope had anything to do with it every winter would have snow and ice for 3 months. Unfortunately it doesn't work like that. 

Agreed. I still hope for a long cold winter as I have done since I was a kid but mother nature will still do as she pleases.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

10 hours ago, 38.7°C said:

Let's not be hoping for freezing conditions, snow and blizzards this winter especially after all the worry and concern we had in July over a two day heat wave killing thousands...  

Would make a change to have a record cold spell this winter (just for a few days). It's easier to warm up that it is to cool down.

We get plenty of very warm to hot days during the summer, with record hot days being recorded.

Edited September 28, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91

[cheeky_monkey]

16 hours ago, 38.7°C said:

Let's not be hoping for freezing conditions, snow and blizzards this winter especially after all the worry and concern we had in July over a two day heat wave killing thousands...  

it didn't though

[Sunny76]

8 hours ago, John88B said:

Agreed. I still hope for a long cold winter as I have done since I was a kid but mother nature will still do as she pleases.

Before 1987 that was usually the case, but since then it’s a once in every 5 year event lol.

[Don]

6 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Before 1987 that was usually the case, but since then it’s a once in every 5 year event lol.

If that! 

[cheeky_monkey]

8 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Before 1987 that was usually the case, but since then it’s a once in every 5 year event lol.

was it? outside of 1979 and 1986 im struggling to remember any long cold winters in my life time..maybe an argument for 85 

[John88B]

24 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

was it? outside of 1979 and 1986 im struggling to remember any long cold winters in my life time..maybe an argument for 85 

Yep the winters in the 70s were in general pretty mild but 79 was great. Winter 81/82 had it's moments with cold and snow before Xmas and one huge snowfall in January down here in the west country and south Wales.

A couple of other half decent ones in the early to mid 80s. Probably the one's you mentioned.

Edited September 28, 2022 by John88B

[sukayuonsensnow]

Based on previous years that have been similar to 2022's weather (along with continued La Niña), I think December will be close to or slightly below average temperatures, with the potential (but no guarantee) of some much colder weather for a time for northern UK. Further south both temperatures and rainfall close to the average. Any snow potential most likely in northern UK, though some wintry showers might arrive further south at times. Generally a chilly month with a higher than normal probability of frosts. Perhaps a greater than normal chance of fog or freezing fog also for a time. Chance of an interesting festive period in Scotland - and if so some notable overnight minima in the Highlands is possible. 

Very low chance of a very interesting New Year period for the UK as a whole in terms of winter weather.

January again average temperature rise, but a higher chance of some wintry spells making it further south. Any particularly cold spells will be transient. Chance of snow for a time in central and some southern parts of the UK later in the month as the Atlantic tries to make more inroads and bumps into cold air doing so - but snow amounts from this nothing out of the ordinary.

February - temperatures a little above average overall, perhaps chilly or cold early in the month. Any snow potential likely in northern parts, then milder for all with rain and some gales for a time. Perhaps drier later.

 

Overall I would say prospects for especially cold and snowy weather are decent further north, especially in Scotland where it could be an interesting winter. Further south fairly standard fare, some transient colder spells but generally no major cold spells or particularly notable snow events likely.

Precipitation, probably close to or just below average for the winter as a whole.

Temperatures will be close to average across the UK as a whole, with milder interludes in the south and especially southwest (more so second half of winter), and much colder at times further north.

Of course these are my early thoughts and could change later depending on other developments.

[Sunny76]

5 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

was it? outside of 1979 and 1986 im struggling to remember any long cold winters in my life time..maybe an argument for 85 

1978/79 - very cold with snow

79/80 - some snow up north, virtually snowless in the south, mild December, cold jan and very mild February.

80/81 another disappointing one in the south, mild Christmas, milder than average January and February in the southern U.K..

81/82 - classic cold winter with snow countrywide, heavy snow in London during December 81, then more snowfall during January 1982. February ended up being mild.

82/83 - mild winter, with a very mild Christmas and January, February was cold though.

83/84 - another mild December Christmas period, January and February were mixed but pretty much snowless in the south.

84/85 - cold with snow

85/86 - cold with snow

86/87 - average to mild in early December, but much colder into January with very cold temps countrywide, coldest since 1947.

1987/88 - following The Great Storm, a very mild and sunny winter. No snow even in northern parts of the country. The next 3 winters will be very mild. 

[Don]

2 hours ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

Based on previous years that have been similar to 2022's weather (along with continued La Niña), I think December will be close to or slightly below average temperatures, with the potential (but no guarantee) of some much colder weather for a time for northern UK. Further south both temperatures and rainfall close to the average. Any snow potential most likely in northern UK, though some wintry showers might arrive further south at times. Generally a chilly month with a higher than normal probability of frosts. Perhaps a greater than normal chance of fog or freezing fog also for a time. Chance of an interesting festive period in Scotland - and if so some notable overnight minima in the Highlands is possible. 

Very low chance of a very interesting New Year period for the UK as a whole in terms of winter weather.

January again average temperature rise, but a higher chance of some wintry spells making it further south. Any particularly cold spells will be transient. Chance of snow for a time in central and some southern parts of the UK later in the month as the Atlantic tries to make more inroads and bumps into cold air doing so - but snow amounts from this nothing out of the ordinary.

February - temperatures a little above average overall, perhaps chilly or cold early in the month. Any snow potential likely in northern parts, then milder for all with rain and some gales for a time. Perhaps drier later.

 

Overall I would say prospects for especially cold and snowy weather are decent further north, especially in Scotland where it could be an interesting winter. Further south fairly standard fare, some transient colder spells but generally no major cold spells or particularly notable snow events likely.

Precipitation, probably close to or just below average for the winter as a whole.

Temperatures will be close to average across the UK as a whole, with milder interludes in the south and especially southwest (more so second half of winter), and much colder at times further north.

Of course these are my early thoughts and could change later depending on other developments.

Sounds similar to 2020/21!

Edited September 28, 2022 by Don

[damianslaw]

40 minutes ago, Don said:

Sounds similar to 2020/21!

Yes similiar, though New Year period was cold. Winter 20-21 was decent for cold and snow in the north, on and off, similiar to 08-09. What tarnished it was the pervading gloom and anxiety caused by the pandemic.

[Beanz]

November will be quite chilly, feeling surprisingly seasonal unlike recent years. Not much action from the Atlantic, most likely cold from the north and east.    

December will start mild, then from mid month onwards we’ll see cold, mainly from the north.  Snow likely across much of north and east of the country from the 18th, remaining with us for at least a week.  

January will be warmer from the second week onwards, slightly above average and rather benign with high pressure dominating much of the month. 
 

 

[KTtom]

We all have opinions we are allowed to share, so here is mine. There was alot of talk last week about things not being normal and no sign of an Atlantic onslaught. Well IMO things have been very normal for September, you are never going to get a full blown Atlantic dominated spell until the PV forms to the north and the Azores high retreats, which it does as we head into October. September, at least for my location has been, if anything wetter and windier than normal, especially the last part of it. So, whilst we might desperately be looking for signs of a blocked cold winter, no signs out there at the moment that I can see from the models that its going to be anything different to the last few years....obviously we are still in September so much can and probably will change but at the moment, things looking a little....Normal.