Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

[Frigid]

19 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Just hope we don't see our biggest snowfall in November this coming season, as happened last year. Last winter another shocker for snow fall along the dismal likes of 13-14, 15-16, 16-17, 18-19, 19-20. 6 out of last 9 have been abysmal amongst most snowless ever. 

Last winter was atrocious, though January was quite cold at times. December and February were complete write-offs. The only snowfalls observed here was in November, with a light flurry at the end of March. 

Don't want to see that this winter. It doesn't have to be very cold for it to be a good winter, average does it these days.

[Cheshire Freeze]

By latter November snow can hang around for a long time if conditions allow. Plus the days are only getting shorter. 2010 showed us what is possible in late November.

[MP-R]

This must be one of the first times I really wouldn't mind if it wasn't a cold one. Best of both worlds for energy bills (which out of principle I want to keep to a minimum) and maintaining interest as a weather enthusiast... a mostly mild winter with one or two significant cold spells that deliver snow would do nicely. You'd think that wouldn't be too difficult. A winter like 04/05 with February's synoptics (that actually deliver) in January would be fine by me.

[Frost HoIIow]

28 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

By latter November snow can hang around for a long time if conditions allow. Plus the days are only getting shorter. 2010 showed us what is possible in late November.

Yes especially if we had ice day after ice day but for that we need impressive synoptics ala 2010 to deliver these conditions day in day out because once temps get above zero it's drip drip regardless of the sun strength or lack of. And that's the problem in this country because on the continent they need less impressive synoptics than us for snow to fall and stick around, dew points are lower there and they get ice days more easily than here an island cut off from the cold continent. We need everything in our favour to get a notable cold spell.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I think we are overdue a cold February now, much in the same way we were overdue a warm sunny August. February tends to be more springlike nowadays, and the best of the wintry conditions arrive during March or April when it is too late.

Edited October 1, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91

[TheOgre]

My thoughts are that we might have a cold March next year with some snowy spells. It will have been 5 years since the last cold one. The last 4 have featured warm weather at least some of the time. 5 years before 2018 was the frigid March 2013 and before that the white Easter of 2008. Around every 5 years seems about right for a wintry March.

[Polar Maritime]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

By latter November snow can hang around for a long time if conditions allow. Plus the days are only getting shorter. 2010 showed us what is possible in late November.

Absolutely here in my location during that time in 2010 was something. Endless snow days/blizzards and temps down -20c.... Drifts up to the second story bedroom window sills. And I only live in a bungalow!.. I was stuck in for two weeks.

2013 was pretty much the same here but not as prolonged..

 

Edited October 1, 2022 by Polar Maritime

[Don]

14 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I think we are overdue a cold February now, much in the same way we were overdue a warm sunny August. February tends to be more springlike nowadays, and the best of the wintry conditions arrive during March or April when it is too late.

That's exactly what I said yesterday!  Don't think it will be February 2023 but famous last words!!

[Snowy L]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Just hope we don't see our biggest snowfall in November this coming season, as happened last year. Last winter another shocker for snow fall along the dismal likes of 13-14, 15-16, 16-17, 18-19, 19-20. 6 out of last 9 have been abysmal amongst most snowless ever. 

It really has been shocking and I don't buy the climate change argument either. Yes on average our winters should be getting milder but this should mean an easterly now is a couple of degrees milder than it would be 50 years ago for e.g. so some snow events that were just on the right side of marginal in the past may be on the wrong side of marginal now. What it shouldn't mean is Easterlies simply don't happen anymore unless we get lucky with a well positioned vortex following an SSW.

[Snowy L]

On 30/09/2022 at 21:07, Don said:

I remember there was a lot of excitement in the run up to winter 2012/13 but not sure what the 'factors' were at the time?!  It turned out to be only slightly colder than average but March 2013 was epic!

Winter 2004/05 featured a white Christmas for some and that prolonged wishy washy easterly in February/early March where great synoptics were let down by a lack of cold on the continent.  It was still the coldest second half of February (at the time) since 1986 though.

I think there have been a few similarities between this September and 2020 as that month also had a warm first half but got progressively colder towards the end of the month.

I remember 12/13 because it was the winter that made me fall for the SSW hype. It was the first time I'd heard of them and it went perfectly. The stratosphere temperature models picked it up weeks in advance and we got a perfect split following the initial displacement. Living in Leeds at the time it was probably the snowiest winter I've lived through, there were loads of marginal snow events and if I remember correctly from North Midlands up most places were on the right side of this. It continued well into March as well. The winter months weren't too cold, but it just shows they don't need to be to deliver snow. 

[Don]

47 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

I remember 12/13 because it was the winter that made me fall for the SSW hype. It was the first time I'd heard of them and it went perfectly. The stratosphere temperature models picked it up weeks in advance and we got a perfect split following the initial displacement. Living in Leeds at the time it was probably the snowiest winter I've lived through, there were loads of marginal snow events and if I remember correctly from North Midlands up most places were on the right side of this. It continued well into March as well. The winter months weren't too cold, but it just shows they don't need to be to deliver snow. 

True but worth remembering that whilst 2012/13 may not have been too cold compared to the 61-90 average (being only slightly below), it was significantly below the 91-20 average.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I think we are overdue a cold February now, much in the same way we were overdue a warm sunny August. February tends to be more springlike nowadays, and the best of the wintry conditions arrive during March or April when it is too late.

Warm August more likely than cold Feb now

[Beanz]

7 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I think we are overdue a cold February now, much in the same way we were overdue a warm sunny August. February tends to be more springlike nowadays, and the best of the wintry conditions arrive during March or April when it is too late.

Are we? Feb last year saw the lowest recorded temperatures for 20 odd years…

 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

15 hours ago, Don said:

What about December?! 

Dunno about the CFS but here's CANSIPS  

 

[Uncertainty]

26 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Dunno about the CFS but here's CANSIPS  

 

That’s nearly a b word (I’ve still never said it on the forum) as the cansips is normally very zonal for the midwinter months. I can’t remember it spewing something like that out on a relatively short lead time. 
 

Will wait till all the other October modelling out before putting out my winter musings. But for now I echo the ‘interesting now’ sentiment above! 

[Premiere Neige]

7 hours ago, Snowy L said:

It really has been shocking and I don't buy the climate change argument either. Yes on average our winters should be getting milder but this should mean an easterly now is a couple of degrees milder than it would be 50 years ago for e.g. so some snow events that were just on the right side of marginal in the past may be on the wrong side of marginal now. What it shouldn't mean is Easterlies simply don't happen anymore unless we get lucky with a well positioned vortex following an SSW.

Are you saying you don't think the planet is getting warmer?

[Beanz]

32 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

Are you saying you don't think the planet is getting warmer?

I didn’t read it like that.  I think the point is that we don’t know what affect climate change will actually have on our weather, patterns rather than global temperatures.   

[78/79]

As much as I like a good cold winter, the timing this year could be disastrous for a lot of people. 

Sky high energy bills, combined with extra mortgage outgoings could tip many over the edge financially. 

Unlike many on here, I'm old enough to remember 4 million being out of work, 16 % interest rates, and people posting their house keys back through Building Society letter boxes. 

Quite a few  have a huge shock coming to them I'm afraid, and to be honest a severe winter certainly wouldn't help in the slightest. 

But as ever, the weather will do as it wishes whatever we want or don't want. 

[MP-R]

8 hours ago, Don said:

That's exactly what I said yesterday!  Don't think it will be February 2023 but famous last words!!

February can give us some clues about March and April. If it turns springlike in Feb, it rarely turns wintry again thereafter but a colder Feb seems to bring about higher likelihood of cold leading into spring.

[damianslaw]

39 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

As much as I like a good cold winter, the timing this year could be disastrous for a lot of people. 

Sky high energy bills, combined with extra mortgage outgoings could tip many over the edge financially. 

Unlike many on here, I'm old enough to remember 4 million being out of work, 16 % interest rates, and people posting their house keys back through Building Society letter boxes. 

Quite a few  have a huge shock coming to them I'm afraid, and to be honest a severe winter certainly wouldn't help in the slightest. 

But as ever, the weather will do as it wishes whatever we want or don't want. 

I've noted before how cold winters have coincided with harder economic times.. just a coincidence I think but notable:

78-79, 81-82 came at times of economic woe, also winters 84-85 time of strife - miners strike, when the ecomomy boosted late 80s winters were mild, then recession and oh look winter 90-91 popped up, then the ecomomy gradually improved by late 90s mild winters, this held through until next crash in 08-09 oh look winters became cold, slump up until 2013 and then look winters became mild... the depths of pandemic came same time chillier winter 20-21... how all uncanny!

[BruenSryan]

3 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Dunno about the CFS but here's CANSIPS  

 

Very intriguing forecast, not least because it's the CanSIPS going against its usual grain but it shows blocking in an area that would be likely conducive to a disturbed stratospheric polar vortex. Very EP Niña esque. It contrasts with the mid-Atlantic ridging signal that was apparent on many seasonal models for their September runs. 

Wonder what CanSIPS is seeing to produce such a distribution of MSLP anomalies.

[WarwickshireLad]

I think it will be a mixed season not necessarily cold but hopefully more wet and more 'weather' than last year's efforts. 

[Bradley in Kent]

10 hours ago, Snowy L said:

It really has been shocking and I don't buy the climate change argument either. Yes on average our winters should be getting milder but this should mean an easterly now is a couple of degrees milder than it would be 50 years ago for e.g. so some snow events that were just on the right side of marginal in the past may be on the wrong side of marginal now. What it shouldn't mean is Easterlies simply don't happen anymore unless we get lucky with a well positioned vortex following an SSW.

It's an interesting thought and I'd like to know how wind patterns have changed. Some time ago I read something saying that the occurance of Easterly winds in winter has halved since 1950, however I can't remember where so unable to verify. 

What I do know for sure is that the stratosphere has been cooling due to greenhouse gases trapping heat in the troposphere especially at higher latitudes, much like how a thicker duvet will be cooler to touch because the warmth below doesn't make its way through. At lower latitudes the cooling is less pronounced meaning there's a bigger temperature difference in the stratosphere which is where our driving mechanisms take place. We do hear a lot about Arctic warming and smaller temperature differences because of, but that's at troposphere level where our weather drivers aren't determined.

This does explain why the stormy and zonal type winter has massively increased in frequency with your deep vortex and strong jetstream. Needless to say, we don't get proper cold spells in those type winters as Scandi or Greeny highs which bring the Northerly and  Easterly winds can't establish. 

This all brings me back to my first line; is climate change changing weather as well as temperature? Personally, I think it is. 

[Don]

3 hours ago, 78/79 said:

Quite a few  have a huge shock coming to them I'm afraid, and to be honest a severe winter certainly wouldn't help in the slightest. 

But as ever, the weather will do as it wishes whatever we want or don't want. 

Yes, my mortgage fixed term comes to an end next year, so that is a concern!  In terms of this coming winter, I very much doubt it will be severe but famous last words of course!

[Weather Enthusiast91]

5 hours ago, Beanz said:

Are we? Feb last year saw the lowest recorded temperatures for 20 odd years…

 

 

 

During the first half of the month mainly, particularly night time temps. The second half was a lot milder and more springlike.

Overall, the month still ended up being a touch above average.

Edited October 2, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91