Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

[Don]

16 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Oh joy that made for poor viewing if you like snow. Mind 6 out of last 9 winters as I've mentioned have been abysmal for snow.. so we are used to it! 

Why is la nina hanging around so long!

Yeah but doesn't make it any better!

The prolonged La Nina is probably Earth desperately trying to regulate its temperature but climate change is having none of it!!

[Stabilo19]

7 hours ago, Premier Neige said:

Winter 2022/2023 Snowfall Predictions: New Forecast data shows the Snowfall patterns for the next Winter season, altered by the La Nina Jet Stream » Severe Weather Europe

WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

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Updated Winter 2022/2023 snowfall predictions for the United States, Canada, and Europe, from the global long-range weather forecasting systems

 

Might as well read tea leaves

[Don]

55 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

Might as well read tea leaves

Tea leaves say no to snow too! 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

Expectations for this coming winter are now so low that a few wintry showers in January will be a cause for joy!

Not sure we can blame it all on El nina for as the author says in this article we are a long way from the source.

Strange that in a  number of todays papers it is reported that the Government is worried about gas rationing after forecasts of an 'unusually cold, dry European winter', not sure what forecasts they are looking at!

Andy

I think it’s referring to parts of Europe having a cold winter not here!

[Frost HoIIow]

4 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

I think it’s referring to parts of Europe having a cold winter not here!

A cold winter in Europe gives us a better chance of cold here though. It's just getting that cold to move west that is often the big obstacle 

[E17boy]

20 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

A cold winter in Europe gives us a better chance of cold here though. It's just getting that cold to move west that is often the big obstacle 

Hi

Yes agree we have had many missed chances in the past where easterly winds have not made it to our shore but have been close enough, it needs the blocks of the jigsaw to fall in place. I do hope we get a Scandinavian high this winter as that gives the chance of the cold to extend westwards. However saying that all depends on other factors as well ie intensity of the cold in Europe etc. I have already started watching temperatures in Europe, but at the moment no noticeably cold yet. I think we need to wait to see how November pans out.

No model I would say will be able to pinpoint locations of high pressure and low pressure patterns just yet. We have seen how quickly situations can change in a number of days so I would take any predictions being made now with a pinch of salt. If it’s going to be a high pressure dominated pattern then where this high sits will make a difference between us having a freeze with easterly or northerly winds or just having typical benign winter weather or mild southwesterlies. 
 

So I would say right now at this moment of time we are still in the unknown we have still got all of October to play out and then I would say by mid November maybe wf might have a bit of a clue by judging how the general pattern is playing out. Till then a lot of weather to get through. Still very early days but no notable cold pool in Europe or Scandi just yet.

have a great evening all

regards

 

[Don]

57 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

A cold winter in Europe gives us a better chance of cold here though. It's just getting that cold to move west that is often the big obstacle 

It depends which part of Europe is cold though, if it's Eastern or South Eastern Europe for example it could well be mild in the west and north west.

[Frost HoIIow]

29 minutes ago, Don said:

It depends which part of Europe is cold though, if it's Eastern or South Eastern Europe for example it could well be mild in the west and north west.

That's default stuff though. I think the government might be seeing cold as far west as Germany or France or even the UK. So hence their concern....... but we could tap into it. Not that I'm wishing a really cold winter because a lot will be struggling with their bill. Also worth remembering the public doesn't get to see all the long term forecast data. Some of it remains with the Met Office but they feed it to the government.

[Penrith Snow]

OK, I am really confused now for The Guardian is reporting that its the ECM Seasonal model that is forecasting a cold early winter in Europe due to El Nina, yet the ECM seasonal forecasts I have seen indicate a mild winter across the whole continent.

I suppose a cold December could be over compensated by a mild February and January?

If correct I would be happy as I don't mind a mild late winter if early winter is cold, after last year New Years BBQ I would be glad of a cold Xmas period.

You can read the whole article free on the Guardian website.

Andy

Andy

[sukayuonsensnow]

6 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh no, not the dreaded 'background signals'? I still remember February 2019 -- background signals suggested blizzards; reality delivered 21C!

Besides a very localised area of Southern England from Bath to Bagshot having a decent snowfall, this was certainly not the case. (Regarding blizzards)

Edited October 3, 2022 by sukayuonsensnow

[sukayuonsensnow]

28 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

OK, I am really confused now for The Guardian is reporting that its the ECM Seasonal model that is forecasting a cold early winter in Europe due to El Nina, yet the ECM seasonal forecasts I have seen indicate a mild winter across the whole continent.

I suppose a cold December could be over compensated by a mild February and January?

If correct I would be happy as I don't mind a mild late winter if early winter is cold, after last year New Years BBQ I would be glad of a cold Xmas period.

You can read the whole article free on the Guardian website.

Andy

Andy

Given how similar the weather this year has been to 1976 and 1995, a cold start to the winter would complete those similarities. 

The question is how wet/dry will it be before then during the remainder of Autumn......

[Methuselah]

Well, what with heating costs going, literally, through the roof, a snow-free winter will do me fine!

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, Penrith Snow said:

Expectations for this coming winter are now so low that a few wintry showers in January will be a cause for joy!

Not sure we can blame it all on El nina for as the author says in this article we are a long way from the source.

Strange that in a  number of todays papers it is reported that the Government is worried about gas rationing after forecasts of an 'unusually cold, dry European winter', not sure what forecasts they are looking at!

Andy

High pressure to the east, with an atlantic trough digging through the UK and high pressure to the west - all quite possible, which would result in a cold wet winter here, snow and rain..

[Sunny76]

On 01/10/2022 at 00:19, summer blizzard said:

2018 not snowy for you?

In BD11 the 05 spell was notable for the fact that snowfall fell on about 16 consecutive days but temperatures were fairly marginal and so it would melt. I think 12cm from the (25th) was the highest depth. This was with close to 200m of height.

Jan 10, Dec 10, Jan 13 and Feb 18 all breached that with shorter spells.

I remember March 05 had light snow covering central London for one day.

This also happened in January 2004 and a couple of times in January 2003. 

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

OK, I am really confused now for The Guardian is reporting that its the ECM Seasonal model that is forecasting a cold early winter in Europe due to El Nina, yet the ECM seasonal forecasts I have seen indicate a mild winter across the whole continent.

I suppose a cold December could be over compensated by a mild February and January?

If correct I would be happy as I don't mind a mild late winter if early winter is cold, after last year New Years BBQ I would be glad of a cold Xmas period.

You can read the whole article free on the Guardian website.

Andy

Andy

Think I posted this earlier in the thread, ECM September Z500 anomalies for Dec, Jan and Feb, you can see they are quite different, with the Dec plot offering a decent Atlantic ridge, which is not there in the other two plots:

Personally, I find the usual 3 month average plots of the seasonal models very unhelpful, because they just mask differences like this.  

It will be very interesting to see the October updates of this and all the other seasonal models.

Edited October 3, 2022 by Mike Poole

[E17boy]

39 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

OK, I am really confused now for The Guardian is reporting that its the ECM Seasonal model that is forecasting a cold early winter in Europe due to El Nina, yet the ECM seasonal forecasts I have seen indicate a mild winter across the whole continent.

I suppose a cold December could be over compensated by a mild February and January?

If correct I would be happy as I don't mind a mild late winter if early winter is cold, after last year New Years BBQ I would be glad of a cold Xmas period.

You can read the whole article free on the Guardian website.

Andy

Andy

To me it looks as if models are seeing early indications if some kind of high pressure block Hence the drier word being used come the early winter period. At this stage even this to be taken with a pinch of salt. 
 

However if this come to materialise  then where this high pressure iis will determine our weather.  If further east from us then we could still be bombarded with weather systems becoming slow moving ( that’s if the Atlantic gains pace).  If further south east in Europe then this pattern could set up for ages and take a as while to shift with us getting the dreaded southwesterlies. But the best situation coldies would be hoping for is for the high to be further north and then we start getting the continental feed  or an easterly which could well be cold depending on how cold it gets in Europe, this being dry or picking up moisture and bringing us rain or snow showers to the east,  lastly the high pressure block could be cover the uk as well as Europe bringing cold frosty conditions with fog. These are some  of the scienarios that could come about. 
 

The above was just some thoughts with a big IF .

regards 

[Ladyofthestorm]

I'm surprised winter 2017 to 2018 hasn't been mentioned. 

The only winter we had here on the Outer Hebrides  to have  snow lying on ground every month. 

November to May. 

Not sure what year to compare it by but the trend was ridging high pressure in the Atlantic riding up towards Greenland letting Nly air flood south.  Seen something similar this year.  

 

[Penrith Snow]

23 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Think I posted this earlier in the thread, ECM September Z500 anomalies for Dec, Jan and Feb, you can see they are quite different, with the Dec plot offering a decent Atlantic ridge, which is not there in the other two plots:

Personally, I find the usual 3 month average plots of the seasonal models very unhelpful, because they just mask differences like this.  

It will be very interesting to see the October updates of this and all the other seasonal models.

Thanks for these, the Guardian article makes sense now with a cold December and mild February the preferred outcome.

Got to say the December anomaly is good with the highest relative pressure south of Iceland, just where we want it.

If we could get just one cold, frosty, snowy month I would be happy.

All eyes on the October update.

Andy

[Don]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, what with heating costs going, literally, through the roof, a snow-free winter will do me fine!

It's going to be expensive no matter what happens!  

[damianslaw]

50 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Thanks for these, the Guardian article makes sense now with a cold December and mild February the preferred outcome.

Got to say the December anomaly is good with the highest relative pressure south of Iceland, just where we want it.

If we could get just one cold, frosty, snowy month I would be happy.

All eyes on the October update.

Andy

Winter 10-11 repeat perhaps!

[Beanz]

Whatever happens, the signals will be there right up until t72, then they’ll disappear

[Don]

38 minutes ago, Beanz said:

Whatever happens, the signals will be there right up until t72, then they’ll disappear

Christmas 2021?!

[Hirudine]

4 hours ago, Penrith Snow said:

OK, I am really confused now for The Guardian is reporting that its the ECM Seasonal model that is forecasting a cold early winter in Europe due to El Nina, yet the ECM seasonal forecasts I have seen indicate a mild winter across the whole continent.

I suppose a cold December could be over compensated by a mild February and January?

If correct I would be happy as I don't mind a mild late winter if early winter is cold, after last year New Years BBQ I would be glad of a cold Xmas period.

You can read the whole article free on the Guardian website.

Andy

Andy

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The Financial Times ran the same story a few days ago, where they mention that ' ministers were calling on ENTSO-E, the EU’s electricity grid operators’ network, to present its update on risks to the security of winter electricity supply in October, a month earlier than usual.' So there must be some reasonable amount of concern.

[BleakMidwinter]

18 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, what with heating costs going, literally, through the roof, a snow-free winter will do me fine!

Oh, I dunno - my parents live in a draughty great barn of an old house with minimal insulation possible (short of cladding the entire exterior of a stone0-built house) and the cheapest winter bills they had in 45+ years was the year when Edinburgh was buried under snow from late November til February - it's astonishing what good insulation 18 inches of snow on the slates provides! 

[Catacol]

On 30/09/2022 at 22:22, Don said:

We are surely overdue a genuinely cold February now, much like we were overdue a hot and dry August until this year?!  Last proper cold February with nationwide snow was 1991.  I know 1996 was cold and snowy for some, but there wasn't much in the south.

A foot of snow in parts of Dorset Feb 1996. The snow ploughs had it around 8ft high on road sides for a day or two. Extraordinary.