Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

[Summer8906]

13 hours ago, Don said:

I remember there was a lot of excitement in the run up to winter 2012/13 but not sure what the 'factors' were at the time?!  It turned out to be only slightly colder than average but March 2013 was epic!

January 2013 was arguably also epic. Besides 2010, the only January after 1987 to produce a prolonged spell of snowy weather in the south.

13 hours ago, Don said:

Winter 2004/05 featured a white Christmas for some and that prolonged wishy washy easterly in February/early March where great synoptics were let down by a lack of cold on the continent.  It was still the coldest second half of February (at the time) since 1986 though.

The analogues, while mild, are by and large not really terrible winters (as in, dull and wet). 98/99 and Jan/Feb 2002 stick out as the worst. While 07/08 wasn't the best, it wasn't terrible: there was a frosty spell in Dec 07, and Feb 08 was notably fine and sunny. 04/05 could be described as a benign winter, with an interestingly cold second half of Feb. So they might suggest a milder than average winter overall, but one with a reasonable chance of prolonged fine spells.

13 hours ago, Don said:

I think there have been a few similarities between this September and 2020 as that month also had a warm first half but got progressively colder towards the end of the month.

Though the first half of September 2020 was fine and sunny, while this year it was dull and wet. Could do without a 2020/21 repeat in all honesty: average temps, but very dull and wet! A worst-of-all-worlds winter: cold enough to necessitate the heating being on, but little or no snow, little sunshine and very damp. Would prefer an 11/12 repeat: a lot of mild dry weather to keep the bills down, but one shortish epic cold spell of two weeks.

Edited October 1, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

10 hours ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

A few of us seem to have similar ideas with the upcoming winter. 

The further north you are, the more interesting the winter could be.

If you live in the south and are hoping for snow, I wouldn't rule it out but don't get your hopes up.

Standard UK winter away from the far north.

I was thinking autumnal February as well! Only a SSW may change my mind.

Three in four years would be pretty bad luck though!

We're overdue an anticyclonic February, last one was in 2019 and the tendency in the past 10 years has been towards unsettled. My thoughts are for Feb to be dry or very dry, with mixed temps - somewhat milder than average overall.

We're also long overdue a colder-than-average Dec, I fancy we might be in with a chance this year, albeit only slightly below average: a month that's half cold and frosty, half mild and wet, like Dec 2007 for instance. January I'm guessing will be moderately mild, very wet and stormy, perhaps with some transient lying snow even down south though. Perhaps similar to Jan 1994 and 2004. Again this is simply because it's been a while since the last one like that!

So my feelings overall seem to align with the message here: somewhat mild, with average rainfall and average sunshine.

Edited October 1, 2022 by Summer8906

[damianslaw]

Reflections on past winters will always be based on local conditions. Decembers 1998, 2001 and 2004 all brought some snowy cold conditions at times in the north, 2001 notably so, that was an underated December, exceptionally sunny, frosty with snow at times second half. Dec 04 brought a white christmas here. Dec 98 transient snow early on more so in the NE, overall Dec 98 worst of the bunch for snow and cold. 

[sukayuonsensnow]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

Three in four years would be pretty bad luck though!

We're overdue an anticyclonic February, last one was in 2019 and the tendency in the past 10 years has been towards unsettled. My thoughts are for Feb to be dry or very dry, with mixed temps - somewhat milder than average overall.

We're also long overdue a colder-than-average Dec, I fancy we might be in with a chance this year, albeit only slightly below average: a month that's half cold and frosty, half mild and wet, like Dec 2007 for instance. January I'm guessing will be moderately mild, very wet and stormy, perhaps with some transient lying snow even down south though. Perhaps similar to Jan 1994 and 2004. Again this is simply because it's been a while since the last one like that!

So my feelings overall seem to align with the message here: somewhat mild, with average rainfall and average sunshine.

I wouldn't mind another Feb 2019, the start of that month had an unexpected notable snowfall (7 inches of lying snow) for my local area, then it was straight to Spring/early summer later in the month.

I think December this year will also be close to or slightly below average temperatures, with a greater than normal chance of a more notable cold spell with snow risk in northern UK especially. How below average will depend on how cold the air is to the north of the UK, as I do think mild and wet incursions are possible especially in the south.

(Basing this on how similar this year's weather has been to 1976/1995, but this year's September has ended up slightly above average temperature wise so I don't think a cold December is likely, but I also am not ruling it out)

Either way I don't see Feb 2023 being a particularly wintry month, either early Spring as you say or very autumnal. Unless a SSW throws a spanner in the works.......

[Don]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

January 2013 was arguably also epic. Besides 2010, the only January after 1987 to produce a prolonged spell of snowy weather in the south.

Though the first half of September 2020 was fine and sunny, while this year it was dull and wet. Could do without a 2020/21 repeat in all honesty: average temps, but very dull and wet! A worst-of-all-worlds winter: cold enough to necessitate the heating being on, but little or no snow, little sunshine and very damp. Would prefer an 11/12 repeat: a lot of mild dry weather to keep the bills down, but one shortish epic cold spell of two weeks.

I think January 2013 would have gone down as epic had it not been so soon after 2010!  Without doubt one of the better Januaries of the last 35 years though! 

February 2012 did feature a sustained cold spell but the UK was at the very end of the line and it didn't really impact more western parts. Away from the far east and south east I don't think it was particularly snowy either?  Where I lived at the time in Ash Surrey, there was a snowfall during the evening of the 4th but it was a rather slushy affair, with the powdery deeper stuff reserved for the far south east.

You are correct, the first half of September was drier and sunnier than 2022, but was similar in terms of how it cooled later on.

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

I think a 2019 repeat is highly unlikely this year.  My recollection is that there was one truly overriding driver that year - an extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole - and the dire wet mild winter was well forecasted by the Met Office on the strength of that.  This year the IOD is negative and expected to remain so, so that’s one thing in our favour!

Ah, I was referring more to the fact that during the cool, wet Autumn period it delivered for nobody. The actual winter I agree is not a good comparison.

[summer blizzard]

26 minutes ago, Don said:

I think January 2013 would have gone down as epic had it not been so soon after 2010!  Without doubt one of the better Januaries of the last 35 years though! 

February 2012 did feature a sustained cold spell but the UK was at the very end of the line and it didn't really impact more western parts. Away from the far east and south east I don't think it was particularly snowy either?  Where I lived at the time in Ash Surrey, there was a snowfall during the evening of the 4th but it was a rather slushy affair, with the powdery deeper stuff reserved for the far south east.

You are correct, the first half of September was drier and sunnier than 2022, but was similar in terms of how it cooled later on.

The first half of Feb 12 averaged near 0C, it was cold but pressure was about 1050mb (high close over Scandinavia) so most places struggled for snow (though English minima was in the -10 to -15 range which is why it's forgettable. Most places north of the M4 did get a front which delivered a few inches and just outside Leeds, snow remained on the ground for 8 days.

It was a bit like the second half of Nov 05 for many people I think. That averaged about 3C, was extremely sunny and frosty but most people forget it because bar a single northerly it didn't really produce much notable snow.

 

[Summer8906]

36 minutes ago, Don said:

I think January 2013 would have gone down as epic had it not been so soon after 2010!  Without doubt one of the better Januaries of the last 35 years though! 

February 2012 did feature a sustained cold spell but the UK was at the very end of the line and it didn't really impact more western parts. Away from the far east and south east I don't think it was particularly snowy either?  Where I lived at the time in Ash Surrey, there was a snowfall during the evening of the 4th but it was a rather slushy affair, with the powdery deeper stuff reserved for the far south east.

We missed it in south Hampshire but I remember there was plenty of evidence of significant snow on the higher ground of mid-Hampshire. I recall looking north from Cheesefoot Head, Winchester, on Sunday 5th Feb and seeing quite a good snow cover to the N and NE. Furthermore I was walking in the Liss/Liphook area on Saturday 11th (a sunny but cold day) and, where the sun had not melted the snow, there was reasonable snow cover.

So looks like much of Hampshire, away from the coastal area, had a couple of bouts of snowfall.

36 minutes ago, Don said:

You are correct, the first half of September was drier and sunnier than 2022, but was similar in terms of how it cooled later on.

True, the cooling was strangely similar with a sudden change to cold NW winds - though the 'equinox' part of the month was warm and dry in 2020 and cool and dry this year.

Early October 2020 was cold and very wet thanks to a deep persistent low (I recall an area of rain moving W-E on the 2nd, then E-W on the 3rd, then W-E again on the 4th, so a very wet few days!), with a cold dry spell developing around the 8th. This year it looks to be mild, and while dull, not so cyclonic or wet.

[Summer8906]

3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

I think a 2019 repeat is highly unlikely this year.  My recollection is that there was one truly overriding driver that year - an extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole - and the dire wet mild winter was well forecasted by the Met Office on the strength of that.  This year the IOD is negative and expected to remain so, so that’s one thing in our favour!

Glad to hear it as that autumn/winter season was, by quite a significant margin, the worst I've ever experienced in my lifetime.

2013/4 had a wetter winter, but a dry November (which helped break the season up a bit) and also, while the worst storms of 13/14 were probably worse than those of 19/20, Jan/Feb didn't seem to be quite so desperately dull. Plus, following the Valentines' Storm of Feb 2014, the weather rapidly calmed and the second half of Feb was almost pleasant (though still changeable) - while in 2020, the dull and wet just kept coming.

Edited October 1, 2022 by Summer8906

[jellybaby1969]

My thoughts : Overall a mild winter ,  stormy  conditions at times in the NW with the possibilty of colder incursions mixed in.  Snow being restricted to Scotland  and areas of altitude in the rest of the UK.

[MP-R]

52 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

 

It was a bit like the second half of Nov 05 for many people I think. That averaged about 3C, was extremely sunny and frosty but most people forget it because bar a single northerly it didn't really produce much notable snow.

 

Many also forget just how mild the first 12 days of the month were too, on the back of such a warm October. It was quite  switch around midmonth, topped off with that snowy northerly later in the month. Wouldn't mind another November 2005!

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Whilst a cold winter wouldn't be good for those who are struggling to pay their energy bills, even a mild winter is usually still cold enough to warrant using the CH, particularly if it is wet as well which is often the case when it's mild during winter. So whether we have a 2015/16 winter or a 2020/21 winter probably wouldn't make much of a difference to energy usage. 

Edited October 1, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Don]

13 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Whilst a cold winter wouldn't be good for those who are struggling to pay their energy bills, even a mild winter is usually still cold enough to warrant using the CH, particularly if it is wet as well which is often the case when it's mild during winter. So whether we have a 2015/16 winter or a 2020/21 winter probably wouldn't make much of a difference to energy usage. 

That has been my thinking, the likelihood is it's going to be difficult with energy bills whatever the weather this winter!

[Sceptical]

A repeat of 2021 would do.

The forestry notice is roughly four feet tall. Elevation 250 - 300 meters.

[Don]

2 hours ago, MP-R said:

Many also forget just how mild the first 12 days of the month were too, on the back of such a warm October. It was quite  switch around midmonth, topped off with that snowy northerly later in the month. Wouldn't mind another November 2005!

Indeed, I was still wearing a t-shirt outside with no coat at the beginning of the month. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Found on twitter. New CFS forecast for November  

[Don]

5 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Found on twitter. New CFS forecast for November  

What about December?! 

[damianslaw]

Sometimes October and November can offer teasers as to what the winter may bring. Low pressures that dive into Europe on a NW- SE trajectory, rather than west-east, can be a harbinger that the atmosphere is not all normal.

Also low pressure that comes unstuck over the UK, cyclonic spells.

We've largely seen a sluggish jet since Dec 2020, lets see if it continues. 

[Ravelin]

3 hours ago, Sceptical said:

A repeat of 2021 would do.

The forestry notice is roughly four feet tall. Elevation 250 - 300 meters.

Aye, I'd gladly take that winter again, some very deep snow around here even at modest altitudes. It was made all the better by not having to try to get to work as we were in the second lockdown.

6th Feb 2021

Another 100m further up the hill it was way deeper. Impossible to walk the dog on the forest tracks as you just kept sinking knee deep or more.

 

Edited October 1, 2022 by Ravelin

[sebastiaan1973]

I guess we are all waiting for the latest Cansips... 

I'm curious what the seasonal models will come with in October.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips

[Don]

39 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Aye, I'd gladly take that winter again, some very deep snow around here even at modest altitudes. It was made all the better by not having to try to get to work as we were in the second lockdown.

6th Feb 2021

Another 100m further up the hill it was way deeper. Impossible to walk the dog on the forest tracks as you just kept sinking knee deep or more.

 

Yes, a good winter for Scotland that was!

[SqueakheartLW]

Looking like we are going to end up with a September in the 14C range with a provisional value of 14.45C. Allowing for any corrections this should still end in the 14C range as we are provisionally almost smack bang in the middle of this range.

It was looking earlier on in the month like we were going to get another September 2021 with all those warmer days earlier on and another possible winter killer with a high 15C or even a 16C September but the colder 2nd half has "saved" us from this warm September cold winter jinx it would seem.

Now that we can almost say for certain that we will have a 14C September I thought I would look back and see what winters were like in terms of the CET anomalies for each of the months between November and March following that year's 14C September and see how they come out.

All winters following all 14C Septembers on the CET Record

The following is from quite a big selection of Septembers between 1666 and 2019, a total of 86 Septembers and the winters that followed them. The anomalies are based on the particular year's 30 year mean, not on just 1990-2020 but the final CET on the table is based on 1991-2020 adjusted by the average of the year's anomalies.

When looking at all winters following 14C Septembers we can see a definite pattern emerge here. It seems we have a back loaded winter bias showing here with a slight milder than average bias in November and December by +0.16C and +0.07C respectively. Januaries come out basically bang on average before we see a colder signal emerge for February and March by -0.07C and -0.09C respectively.

This however is based on all 14C Septembers and doesn't take into account other factors at play.

La Nina in winters following 14C Septembers on the CET Record

This is a much shorter list than the first one, partly due to ENSO data only going back to 1870 and of course not all years are La Nina years either. How does this selection compare with the general 14C one.

When limiting things to just the La Nina winters things become a bit more interesting for coldies. We suddenly lose all milder signals and instead we have colder signals for all 5 months. The back loaded signal is still there and a lot more pronounced than before. After slightly cooler than average months from November to January we then get winter going much more in February with a -0.43C anomaly and then in March we have a -0.50C anomaly.

This has just upped the stakes slightly more in favour of cold now as the combination of a 14C September and a La Nina winter to follow is clearly a signal for colder than average, particularly later on in the winter.

WQBO in winters following 14C Septembers on the CET Record

As we look like we are going to have a WQBO winter in 2022/23 I thought I would include this one too and see how the numbers stack up based on historical years that match this combination. How do these years compared.

A bit more mixed compared with the previous analysis but the back loaded signal is even more pronounced than before. November, January and March come out close to average overall with slight variations. December is the big let down of the winter here with a milder than average signal at +0.72C but it is the Februaries that give hope of a rather cold month with that decent -1.78C anomaly.

Didn't expect to see such a cold anomaly for Februaries in a WQBO winter. Perhaps it is February 1986 that is doing this to the overall anomaly average but either way the signal is striking and obvious.

CP La Nina vs EP La Nina in winters following 14C Septembers on the CET Record

Now the final analysis is a bit of a comparison and takes the CP La Nina's and EP La Nina's and splits them up just to see if there is any difference between these winters following 14C Septembers. CP La Nina is on the top and EP La Nina is on the bottom.

When looking at CP La Nina vs EP La Nina after all 14C Septembers there is a clear difference. CP La Nina appears to favour a colder November and generally better for early winter cold as well as the cold returning in March but has a milder February signal. The EP La Nina seems to be better for later winter cold with close to average conditions before this.

Overall it seems the EP La Nina is better for cold over the 5 months compared with the CP La Nina, certainly after a 14C September but this likely holds true in all EP La Nina winters against the CP La Nina ones.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall it would seem that any La Nina setup following a 14C September is a relatively good signal for cold but the WQBO signal isn't so clear cut on this apart from in February which seems to be the main month that all of the above showed having the best signal for cold.

The other months were more variable in terms of their chances of cold but out of the others it seems March was the next best chance after February. December overall looked the least likely month to be cold.

[Don]

5 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

CONCLUSIONS

Overall it would seem that any La Nina setup following a 14C September is a relatively good signal for cold but the WQBO signal isn't so clear cut on this apart from in February which seems to be the main month that all of the above showed having the best signal for cold.

The other months were more variable in terms of their chances of cold but out of the others it seems March was the next best chance after February. December overall looked the least likely month to be cold.

Thanks for the analysis and great work.  All very interesting indeed! 

[damianslaw]

Just hope we don't see our biggest snowfall in November this coming season, as happened last year. Last winter another shocker for snow fall along the dismal likes of 13-14, 15-16, 16-17, 18-19, 19-20. 6 out of last 9 have been abysmal amongst most snowless ever. 

Edited October 1, 2022 by damianslaw

[Don]

17 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Just hope we don't see our biggest snowfall in November this coming season, as happened last year. Last winter another shocker for snow fall along the dismal likes of 13-14, 15-16, 16-17, 18-19, 19-20. 6 out of last 9 have been abysmal amongst most snowless ever. 

Yes, that's my biggest concern also!