Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

It's certainly becoming an early recurring theme 

 

[Don]

4 hours ago, CoxR said:

The c3s mult-system forecast for Winter looks virtually identical to the one at this time last year...

Although they are largely similar, I would say the chart for the coming winter is slightly better with lower pressure to the south.  However, they both have that menacing high pressure over the North East Pacific, stretching across America and out into the Atlantic, albeit it's shown to be a bit further away from us this winter!

We are still in the game for now at least! 

Edited September 13, 2022 by Don

[damianslaw]

21 hours ago, MP-R said:

A good winter north of the border... followed by a very decent summer by their standards too. 

2018 was quite similiar, not the same depth of cold, apart from end of Feb, but generally it was quite a cold winter in Scotland followed by a wonderful summer.

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

2018 was quite similiar, not the same depth of cold, apart from end of Feb, but generally it was quite a cold winter in Scotland followed by a wonderful summer.

Yeah. 2018 was probably better overall for cold here, and certainly for snow in December and February/March. January however was the best month in 2021.

[Premiere Neige]

The Pacific ocean to the south of Alaska has cooled over the past 7 days. Also cooling taking place off the Eastern seaboard of the U.S. SST's remain warm around Greenland. 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Premier Neige said:

The Pacific ocean to the south of Alaska has cooled over the past 7 days. Also cooling taking place off the Eastern seaboard of the U.S. SST's remain warm around Greenland. 

Need these trends to continue in the Pacific and Atlantic.

[sebastiaan1973]

Quite a good CFS12h run 

[sebastiaan1973]

https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1569806479548452864?cxt=HHwWgMC8uaGrickrAAAA

A marked -IOD forecast for the next couple of months, reverting neutral through #winter *my view only* ..November/early Dec could be one to watch with both this set up and a weak to moderate #lanina combining to favour some cold #weather spells ..*my view only*

Edited September 14, 2022 by sebastiaan1973

[cheeky_monkey]

20 hours ago, Don said:

they both have that menacing high pressure over the North East Pacific, stretching across America and out into the Atlantic, 

 

this is a classic La Nina pressure signal for a NA winter so no surprises there

[Premiere Neige]

6 hours ago, Don said:

Need these trends to continue in the Pacific and Atlantic.

Happy for it to stay warmer around Greenland though...

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Although it's the CFS and only covers to November it's along the lines of what the other seasonals show for the winter period

 

[Don]

6 hours ago, Premier Neige said:

Happy for it to stay warmer around Greenland though...

Indeed and the warming is continuing there ATM.

[Summer8906]

On 12/09/2022 at 15:29, Don said:

I think it could well be another winter which is better the further north you go, a bit like 20/21?  However, it might not be particularly great for areas south of the Midlands, often being on the wrong side of marginal?

Hoping not as such conditions can produce the very worst winters for the south. February 2010 being a "classic" example, somewhat colder than average but very dull and wet. Perhaps the only colder-than-average winter month I've really disliked with a passion, and coming off the back of Feb 2008 and 2009 (the latter being close to an ideal Feb with a snowy first half and a mild/sunny second half) it was a nasty shock!

My gut feeling is for something fairly "ordinary" this year, maybe a bit on the mild side but not drastically. Maybe an often-cold December, mild and wet January, and dry Feb with mixed temps. Bit like 2003/04. But this is only because it's been a while since we've had this combination, it's not based off any kind of expert knowledge!

Edited September 15, 2022 by Summer8906

[Don]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

Hoping not as such conditions can produce the very worst winters for the south. February 2010 being a "classic" example, somewhat colder than average but very dull and wet. Perhaps the only colder-than-average winter month I've really disliked with a passion, and coming off the back of Feb 2008 and 2009 (the latter being close to an ideal Feb with a snowy first half and a mild/sunny second half) it was a nasty shock!

My gut feeling is for something fairly "ordinary" this year, maybe a bit on the mild side but not drastically. Maybe an often-cold December, mild and wet January, and dry Feb with mixed temps. Bit like 2003/04. But this is only because it's been a while since we've had this combination, it's not based off any kind of expert knowledge!

Yes, February 2010 was a big disappointment after December 2009 and January 2010.  I remember it looked promising at the start of the month for another cold and snowy spell but didn't quite materialise.  Wouldn't like to call this winter but feel the chances are it will be milder than average but there are some positive early signs at least!

[SqueakheartLW]

Maybe some teaser signs already during this month.

Pressure Patterns

First we had last week low pressure to our south and high pressure to our north. I know it didn't bring colder than average conditions for us but it was the pattern that was significant and not something we would usually see in September

The latest is the pressure pattern for the next few days

Although it doesn't stick it is interesting to see this as well after the northern blocking earlier in the month. Could both of these be teasers for later this year?

Polar Vortex

This years vortex has got off to a rather sluggish start based on 10hpa 60N wind speeds and at times has been the weakest on record on some days and if forecast to remain sluggish too.

La Nina (CP Based or EP Based)

The forecasts are generally going for the CP La Nina which is generally considered to be bad for cold in the UK in winter but recent trends appear to be going against this as it appears to be shifting more towards EP based at the moment which would bring another factor in favour of cold.

Notice the big shift in colder anomalies from the western (Region 3.4 and 4) Pacific into more eastern areas (Region 1+2 and 3). This would go against all the La Nina forecasts and would have to be factored into seasonal predictions. Maybe could be a factor in why more are going blocked now rather than zonal.

Also good to see the continued cooling in the NE Pacific as well as the central N Atlantic ocean too.

[Don]

2 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Notice the big shift in colder anomalies from the western (Region 3.4 and 4) Pacific into more eastern areas (Region 1+2 and 3). This would go against all the La Nina forecasts and would have to be factored into seasonal predictions. Maybe could be a factor in why more are going blocked now rather than zonal.

Also good to see the continued cooling in the NE Pacific as well as the central N Atlantic ocean too.

Definitely some interesting developments there.  However, I would like to see a more marked cool down occur in the North Eastern Pacific.

[sebastiaan1973]

A great read 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/ocean-anomaly-atlantic-gulf-stream-forecast-winter-united-states-europe-fa/

[Rain All Night]

44 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Models behaving in a very Autumn La Nina base state, generally equates to strong mid atlantic heights, waxing and waning, at times allowing colder and wetter incursions from the north and north west, which can then develop into a cyclonic set up, at other times ridging in to give calm settled conditions. As the autumn moves on, the propensity for colder rather than warmer to dominate increases.

Can it be so said, in layman's terms, that the failure of the Atlantic to moderate away the heat while the sun was strong, could become a failure to moderate away the cold when the sun becomes weak, if the overarching pattern does not change?

[Eagle Eye]

Introducing Weather 2.0

Where there's no major blocking high that somehow lasts through all of Winter but is never there when you actually want it.

No intefering La Nina pattern despite being in La Nina.

Where the W QBO doesn't matter because it's only a background driver.

Where the wave pattern actually helps you.

Where you don't have to rely on a SSW to bring snow away from the hills.

Where an Atospheric River events analogs actually matter.

Where Autumn sets up a blocking pattern of cold air.

Where you find out a triple dip La Nina helps bring cold.

Where the Models don't back out last minute.

Fingers crossed that weather 2.0 is installed in time for Winter 

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

A great read 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/ocean-anomaly-atlantic-gulf-stream-forecast-winter-united-states-europe-fa/

Thanks for that.

Doesn't look good for North West Europe in terms of snow and cold and no sign of any storminess either.

Could be a benign Winter weather wise.

[Don]

2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Thanks for that.

Doesn't look good for North West Europe in terms of snow and cold and no sign of any storminess either.

Could be a benign Winter weather wise.

Often doesn't these days, even when background signals are favorable!  We will see....

Edited September 20, 2022 by Don

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Thanks for that.

Doesn't look good for North West Europe in terms of snow and cold and no sign of any storminess either.

Could be a benign Winter weather wise.

Doesn't tell us much really for Europe. All that anomalous warmth.. mmm there has to be a trough somewhere in our vicinity.. not convinced it can be used to determine exact positioning of ridge and trough on east side atlantic and europe. 

[cheeky_monkey]

On 20/09/2022 at 07:33, damianslaw said:

Doesn't tell us much really for Europe. All that anomalous warmth.. mmm there has to be a trough somewhere in our vicinity.. not convinced it can be used to determine exact positioning of ridge and trough on east side atlantic and europe. 

signals point to a cold snowy winter for us in Western Canada 

[Don]

18 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

signals point to a cold snowy winter for us in Western Canada 

And when do you not have a cold snowy winter?!  

I must book that winter holiday to Canada!

[cheeky_monkey]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

And when do you not have a cold snowy winter?!  

I must book that winter holiday to Canada!

2020/21 wasn't snowy at all ..we had one major snowstorm on Nov 9th (technically Autumn) and it never snow again the whole winter outside a few flurries