Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

[Climate Man]

16 minutes ago, KTtom said:

We all have opinions we are allowed to share, so here is mine. There was alot of talk last week about things not being normal and no sign of an Atlantic onslaught. Well IMO things have been very normal for September, you are never going to get a full blown Atlantic dominated spell until the PV forms to the north and the Azores high retreats, which it does as we head into October. September, at least for my location has been, if anything wetter and windier than normal, especially the last part of it. So, whilst we might desperately be looking for signs of a blocked cold winter, no signs out there at the moment that I can see from the models that its going to be anything different to the last few years....obviously we are still in September so much can and probably will change but at the moment, things looking a little....Normal.  

September is in my book usually the most predictable and stable month with the least devation from the mean. Certainly at my weather station. September this year has has two dramatically different halves that will result in an average overall month..

[sukayuonsensnow]

9 hours ago, Don said:

Sounds similar to 2020/21!

I did have that season in mind, but unless there's a SSW (which is very hard to predict this far out) I can see February 2023 more resembling February 2022. An autumnal month.

[Don]

2 hours ago, KTtom said:

We all have opinions we are allowed to share, so here is mine. There was alot of talk last week about things not being normal and no sign of an Atlantic onslaught. Well IMO things have been very normal for September, you are never going to get a full blown Atlantic dominated spell until the PV forms to the north and the Azores high retreats, which it does as we head into October. September, at least for my location has been, if anything wetter and windier than normal, especially the last part of it. So, whilst we might desperately be looking for signs of a blocked cold winter, no signs out there at the moment that I can see from the models that its going to be anything different to the last few years....obviously we are still in September so much can and probably will change but at the moment, things looking a little....Normal.  

I would have been much more concerned about the coming winter if September had continued with the hot summer pattern of July and August.  Although a more 'normal' September by no means guarantees a colder winter and could easily still be very mild, it is far more favorable than a continuation of summer IMHO.

[Don]

Early winter thoughts from TWO

Not the most inspiring for coldies but early days.  I still think the best a coldie can hope for this year is something akin to 2000/01 and 2020/21.

UK winter 2022-23

WWW.THEWEATHEROUTLOOK.COM

---

Will the UK have a cold winter? An easy to understand first look at the long range weather prospects using computer model data, recent climatology and background signals

 

[damianslaw]

I can't recall any winter when 'factors' have stacked in favour of a colder than average winter.

Solar state may have been a key factor in the slightly colder than average winter 20-21.

Last year I think we were unlucky, heights didnt quite align in a place for cold against a sluggish atlantic.

Whilst the analogue years mentioned apart from 10-11 were mild overall, Dec 01 was quite cold, 98 brought a northerly shot, 04 as well, 07 brought a cold frosty spell, so Dec at least could be wintry. 

Apart from 07 the Novembers were cold at times, with northerlies.

Looks like northerlies could be a strong feature end of the back, with strong mid atlantic ridging.

Edited September 30, 2022 by damianslaw

[Don]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

I can't recall any winter when 'factors' have stacked in favour of a colder than average winter.

Solar state may have been a key factor in the slightly colder than average winter 20-21.

Last year I think we were unlucky, heights didnt quite align in a place for cold against a sluggish atlantic.

Whilst the analogue years mentioned apart from 10-11 were mild overall, Dec 01 was quite cold, 98 brought a northerly shot, 04 as well, 07 brought a cold frosty spell, so Dec at least could be wintry. 

Apart from 07 the Novembers were cold at times, with northerlies.

Looks like northerlies could be a strong feature end of the back, with strong mid atlantic ridging.

I remember there was a lot of excitement in the run up to winter 2012/13 but not sure what the 'factors' were at the time?!  It turned out to be only slightly colder than average but March 2013 was epic!

Winter 2004/05 featured a white Christmas for some and that prolonged wishy washy easterly in February/early March where great synoptics were let down by a lack of cold on the continent.  It was still the coldest second half of February (at the time) since 1986 though.

I think there have been a few similarities between this September and 2020 as that month also had a warm first half but got progressively colder towards the end of the month.

Edited September 30, 2022 by Don

[Scuba steve]

Read earlier in the week that There’s a weak polar vortex  with ramifications of which could lead to stratospheric warming events so  possibly a cold early winter 

[Don]

38 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:

Read earlier in the week that There’s a weak polar vortex  with ramifications of which could lead to stratospheric warming events so  possibly a cold early winter 

Yes, trouble is this has happened a few times in recent years but by early winter the PV has become turbo charged and remained that way most of the season!

[Hammer]

My thinking based on past few years is we all dont want a cold winter. So it will probably break all records. Snow galore, Ice hanging off rooftops for months on end. Skating on the Thames. 

[Scuba steve]

14 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, trouble is this has happened a few times in recent years but by early winter the PV has become turbo charged and remained that way most of the season!

True as they saying goes only time will tell

[Don]

Just now, Scuba steve said:

True as they saying goes only time will tell

Absolutely, could well be different this year!

[summer blizzard]

Early thoughts personally are that Oct through Jan look a tad cooler than average (signal for high pressure in Jan but fairly cyclonic in the Oct-Dec period). Signal for a mild February (classic +AO) and then dry again in March.

 

[Don]

3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Early thoughts personally are that Oct through Jan look a tad cooler than average (signal for high pressure in Jan but fairly cyclonic in the Oct-Dec period). Signal for a mild February (classic +AO) and then dry again in March.

 

We are surely overdue a genuinely cold February now, much like we were overdue a hot and dry August until this year?!  Last proper cold February with nationwide snow was 1991.  I know 1996 was cold and snowy for some, but there wasn't much in the south.

[Coopsy]

2 hours ago, Don said:

Winter 2004/05 featured a white Christmas for some and that prolonged wishy washy easterly in February/early March where great synoptics were let down by a lack of cold on the continent.  It was still the coldest second half of February (at the time) since 1986 though.

 

We had a foot of snow in early March 2005 on the north downs of Kent. Elevation was certainly key as walked down the hill and barely anything but a wet slushy mess. 

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, Don said:

We are surely overdue a genuinely cold February now, much like we were overdue a hot and dry August until this year?!  Last proper cold February with nationwide snow was 1991.  I know 1996 was cold and snowy for some, but there wasn't much in the south.

2018 not snowy for you?

18 minutes ago, Coopsy said:

We had a foot of snow in early March 2005 on the north downs of Kent. Elevation was certainly key as walked down the hill and barely anything but a wet slushy mess. 

In BD11 the 05 spell was notable for the fact that snowfall fell on about 16 consecutive days but temperatures were fairly marginal and so it would melt. I think 12cm from the (25th) was the highest depth. This was with close to 200m of height.

Jan 10, Dec 10, Jan 13 and Feb 18 all breached that with shorter spells.

Edited September 30, 2022 by summer blizzard

[Don]

2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

2018 not snowy for you?

In BD11 the 05 spell was notable for the fact that snowfall fell on about 16 consecutive days but temperatures were fairly marginal and so it would melt. I think 12cm from the (25th) was the highest depth. This was with close to 200m of height.

Jan 10, Dec 10, Jan 13 and Feb 18 all breached that with shorter spells.

Not particularly no and the cold came right at the end of the month and into March, so I wouldn't class February 2018 as a proper cold month!!

10 minutes ago, Coopsy said:

We had a foot of snow in early March 2005 on the north downs of Kent. Elevation was certainly key as walked down the hill and barely anything but a wet slushy mess. 

Yep, areas with elevation did ok, but low lying areas either had a slushy mess or no settling at all!

[sukayuonsensnow]

5 hours ago, Don said:

Early winter thoughts from TWO

Not the most inspiring for coldies but early days.  I still think the best a coldie can hope for this year is something akin to 2000/01 and 2020/21.

UK winter 2022-23

WWW.THEWEATHEROUTLOOK.COM

---

Will the UK have a cold winter? An easy to understand first look at the long range weather prospects using computer model data, recent climatology and background signals

 

A few of us seem to have similar ideas with the upcoming winter. 

The further north you are, the more interesting the winter could be.

If you live in the south and are hoping for snow, I wouldn't rule it out but don't get your hopes up.

Standard UK winter away from the far north.

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Early thoughts personally are that Oct through Jan look a tad cooler than average (signal for high pressure in Jan but fairly cyclonic in the Oct-Dec period). Signal for a mild February (classic +AO) and then dry again in March.

 

I was thinking autumnal February as well! Only a SSW may change my mind.

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Early thoughts personally are that Oct through Jan look a tad cooler than average (signal for high pressure in Jan but fairly cyclonic in the Oct-Dec period). Signal for a mild February (classic +AO) and then dry again in March.

 

Cold cyclonic would suit cold lovers and those wanting rain which may turn increasingly wintry by year end. Won't suit those wanting to reduce energy bills.

[weathergeek]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Early thoughts personally are that Oct through Jan look a tad cooler than average (signal for high pressure in Jan but fairly cyclonic in the Oct-Dec period). Signal for a mild February (classic +AO) and then dry again in March.

 

Yes, although I've come on here every winter for over a decade, reading the posts in the hope of snow (still wouldn't say I can 100% read the models with accuracy yet!), I do wonder if this winter we should be wishing for mild to save everyone's energy bills!!! But I know that in my heart of hearts  I'll still wish for snow, even if it's just a few bursts here and there!!🌨❄

[damianslaw]

Jan 2023 will mark 10 years since I've received what I would class a heavy single snowfall, 6 inches plus. We just missed out in March 13 and late Feb 18. Plenty of 1-3 inch falls since only. Hoping this winter produces at least one heavy fall that can stick around a couple of days at least, preferably falling on a Friday. Not much to ask for!

Edited September 30, 2022 by damianslaw

[Don]

8 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

Yes, although I've come on here every winter for over a decade, reading the posts in the hope of snow (still wouldn't say I can 100% read the models with accuracy yet!), I do wonder if this winter we should be wishing for mild to save everyone's energy bills!!! But I know that in my heart of hearts  I'll still wish for snow, even if it's just a few bursts here and there!!🌨❄

In theory yes, but as weather enthusiasts our hearts tend to rule our minds! 

[Don]

6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Jan 2023 will mark 10 years since I've received what I would class a heavy single snowfall, 6 inches plus. We just missed out in March 13 and late Feb 18. Plenty of 1-3 inch falls since only. Hoping this winter produces at least one heavy fall that can stick around a couple of days at least, preferably falling on a Friday. Not much to ask for!

Have to go back to December 2010 for me.  January 2013 had a couple of decent snowfalls and March 2018 a couple of reasonable falls.  However, oddly the closest I have got to matching 2010 was 1st February 2019 (narrowly beating January 2013) with 4 inches during what was a mild winter!  At the end of that month, 70f was breached!!

[DeepSnow]

Whilst I have no clue on what this winter may bring, I do hope for one decent snowfall. I've not had more than an inch on snow since 2018. Last 2 winters I've not even had an inch of snow, they have been snowless down here by the coast bar the odd flurry. I will take a mild winter to please most with energy bills, but would like just one week long cold snap with lots of snow! 

[summer blizzard]

8 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Cold cyclonic would suit cold lovers and those wanting rain which may turn increasingly wintry by year end. Won't suit those wanting to reduce energy bills.

Yes, it's a relatively strange combination since the winter half of the year seems to be cooler when drier normally. 

Always a danger though that it's just a 2019 repeat. That ended up cool and wet in the Autumn but develivered no real snow for anybody bar the Highlands which loved it.

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Yes, it's a relatively strange combination since the winter half of the year seems to be cooler when drier normally. 

Always a danger though that it's just a 2019 repeat. That ended up cool and wet in the Autumn but develivered no real snow for anybody bar the Highlands which loved it.

I think a 2019 repeat is highly unlikely this year.  My recollection is that there was one truly overriding driver that year - an extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole - and the dire wet mild winter was well forecasted by the Met Office on the strength of that.  This year the IOD is negative and expected to remain so, so that’s one thing in our favour!