Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

[Catacol]

On 02/10/2022 at 01:12, Snowy L said:

It really has been shocking and I don't buy the climate change argument either. Yes on average our winters should be getting milder but this should mean an easterly now is a couple of degrees milder than it would be 50 years ago for e.g. so some snow events that were just on the right side of marginal in the past may be on the wrong side of marginal now. What it shouldn't mean is Easterlies simply don't happen anymore unless we get lucky with a well positioned vortex following an SSW.

But unfortunately it does, because the changing profile of CC temperatures is impacting the circulation. The Hadley Cell in general is further north, and under climate change conditions caused by CO2 the stratosphere is cooling while the troposphere warms. The cooling stratosphere is resulting in a stronger polar vortex which, when superimposed on top of the more northerly reaching sub tropical high pressure belt means that easterlies are a lot harder to get. It would be interesting to see an analysis of winter easterly frequency in 1960-90 compared to 1990-2020. Or perhaps more relevantly, the frequency of -NAO or northerly blocking across those 2 time brackets in Dec - Feb. Someone must have done such an analysis somewhere...

But despite CC it would seem SSWs are just as likely as ever - perhaps slightly more likely in CC times? - so the wild card of a collapsed vortex leading to penetration of cold air to more southerly climes remains.

[Catacol]

On 03/10/2022 at 14:56, CreweCold said:

I think given the background signals, any model promoting February as having the best chance of snow is sniffing a SSW.

Must be a factor. Given how almost impossible it is to calculate the fallout from an SSW though I'd take any specifics with a mountain of salt. But if an SSW is being spied this far out by ECM then I'll take that and run happy.

[damianslaw]

17 hours ago, Hirudine said:

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The Financial Times ran the same story a few days ago, where they mention that ' ministers were calling on ENTSO-E, the EU’s electricity grid operators’ network, to present its update on risks to the security of winter electricity supply in October, a month earlier than usual.' So there must be some reasonable amount of concern.

Ive noted the media saying in for a cold winter.. do they know something we don't.. its misleading and panic scaring language.. seems to be referenced in context people will not put there heating on, which is not the same as a weather forecast.

Edited October 4, 2022 by damianslaw

[northwestsnow]

ECMWF Winter forecast updates tomorrow.

I'm expecting Nov and Dec to be blocked.

[Mike Poole]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ECMWF Winter forecast updates tomorrow.

I'm expecting Nov and Dec to be blocked.

Yes, that’s my bet too.

Headline on front page of the Times today - ‘Mild winter forecast offers hope for energy bills’.

Met Office?  Nope.  They’ve gone with some bloke from Reading University cherry picking an unspecified model from Copernicus (8 to choose from, I guess).  

Given comments earlier in the thread re Guardian take, press playing games with supposed winter forecasts to influence public opinion on the energy crisis, it seems.  Well, at this stage, I’m sure there is a seasonal model for every permutation…

[Don]

I'm not sure if this recent change back to a more zonal pattern is good news for winter or not?  On one hand, it's good to get the zonal stuff out of the way now, rather than in two months but on the other hand it could lock in for the long term including winter!  We are in a W-QBO and solar activity is also on the increase which could further reinvigorate the jet.

[Cheshire Freeze]

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ECMWF Winter forecast updates tomorrow.

I'm expecting Nov and Dec to be blocked.

We’re likely to see some form of blocking episode in December…the nuance will be in whether we can hold off the Atlantic (unlike last December where we were so close but ultimately failed).

 

Edited October 4, 2022 by CreweCold

[SqueakheartLW]

1 hour ago, Don said:

I'm not sure if this recent change back to a more zonal pattern is good news for winter or not?  On one hand, it's good to get the zonal stuff out of the way now, rather than in two months but on the other hand it could lock in for the long term including winter!  We are in a W-QBO and solar activity is also on the increase which could further reinvigorate the jet.

Last WQBO winter wasn't too bad. 2020/21 had it's moments.

2019/20 better forgotten, what a horror show. WQBO too but unusual things going on with the southern SSW and the QBO disruption event and record positive IOD.

2018/19 I think was also a WQBO winter but we'd only just entered it I think. This one was also not particularly good for cold although we did manage a little snow out of it.

2016/17 - WQBO winter. A dry and mild borefest with little in the way of snow.

2015/16 - WQBO winter. Like 2019/20 had a horror show polar vortex of doom, probably stronger than the one in 2019/20 combined with super Nino. That December was the worst one I have ever experienced. Struggled to get any cold or frost that month and zero snow that winter.

2013/14 - WQBO winter. Another like 2019/20.

2010/11 and 2008/09 - WQBO winters. Were both decent cold winters overall, especially December 2010. 2008/09 was a more general cold winter with no month particularly cold in terms of extremes anyway. For WQBO winters these were both decent.

 

You could say solar activity has a bigger influence than the QBO since the colder winters featured here are all in low solar activity despite the WQBO apart from 2019/20 which is the exception to this with a mild winter at solar minimum. The other mentioned winters are all with higher solar activity.

[SqueakheartLW]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

We’re likely to see some form of blocking episode in December…the nuance will be in whether we can hold off the Atlantic (unlike last December where we were so close but ultimately failed).

 

The thing about last winter was that we had another polar vortex of doom but unlike in 2019/20 when it was close enough to give us a wet zonal winter last winter the positioning of this polar vortex of doom was far enough away from us that we ended up with a high pressure dominated mild borefest but close enough that is stopped us from getting any northern blocking going.

I'd call 2019/20 the kind of winter you would expect with a strong polar vortex and useful rain in the months you would expect to get it whereas 2021/22 was the wrong kind of strong vortex winter where we have the perfect pattern to deliver needed winter rainfall but we end up dry instead and the end result is the drought we have had over the summer as the dry pattern simply continued.

[Don]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

You could say solar activity has a bigger influence than the QBO since the colder winters featured here are all in low solar activity despite the WQBO apart from 2019/20 which is the exception to this with a mild winter at solar minimum. The other mentioned winters are all with higher solar activity.

That's interesting ref W-QBO combined with higher solar activity.  Winters 1981/82 and 2000/01 both occurred near solar maximum and as we know, 81/82 was a very cold front loaded snowy winter and although 00/01 wasn't especially cold in the scheme of things, it was one of the colder winters of the 97-08 period.  However I'm not show about the ENSO or QBO phase during those winters?  Would be interesting to know!

Edited October 4, 2022 by Don

[Premiere Neige]

On 03/10/2022 at 16:56, damianslaw said:

Oh joy that made for poor viewing if you like snow. Mind 6 out of last 9 winters as I've mentioned have been abysmal for snow.. so we are used to it! 

Why is la nina hanging around so long!

I'm not sure but I can't wait for a weak el niño!!

[sebastiaan1973]

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/la-nina-cooling-activity-winter-weather-influence-united-states-canada-jet-stream-fa/

CFS-chart for november.

Seems to me the coolest waters are to be found in the eastern part. Nino 1+2. Of course they 'should' come to the surface for impact. 

 

According to this study a Eastern La Nina & -PDO is 'good' for the winter over here.

 

 

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/la-nina-cooling-activity-winter-weather-influence-united-states-canada-jet-stream-fa/

CFS-chart for november.

Seems to me the coolest waters are to be found in the eastern part. Nino 1+2. Of course they 'should' come to the surface for impact. 

 

According to this study a Eastern La Nina & -PDO is 'good' for the winter over here.

 

 

I was under the impression its a modoki Nina ?

Stats wise I'd prefer an E based  Nina ,worth keeping an eye on those SST's.

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

I was under the impression its a modoki Nina ?

Stats wise I'd prefer an E based  Nina ,worth keeping an eye on those SST's.

It's basin wide really with not much differential but the sub surface is cooler in the east.

[sebastiaan1973]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

I was under the impression its a modoki Nina ?

Stats wise I'd prefer an E based  Nina ,worth keeping an eye on those SST's.

The point is, that the coldest sea water is in the east and will probably come to the surface.   

[jules216]

2 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/la-nina-cooling-activity-winter-weather-influence-united-states-canada-jet-stream-fa/

CFS-chart for november.

Seems to me the coolest waters are to be found in the eastern part. Nino 1+2. Of course they 'should' come to the surface for impact. 

 

According to this study a Eastern La Nina & -PDO is 'good' for the winter over here.

 

 

PDO is negative, just need the blue circle to cool the waters to have a tripole as Well, some -NAO may be present this winter but to counteract are most recent trends of Haddley Cell expansion,cooling trend in stratosphere and Hunga Tonga water vapour that may deflect more solar radiation to further cool the vortex. ID say a lot of contrast teleconnections are in place this winter.

[Don]

14 minutes ago, jules216 said:

PDO is negative, just need the blue circle to cool the waters to have a tripole as Well, some -NAO may be present this winter but to counteract are most recent trends of Haddley Cell expansion,cooling trend in stratosphere and Hunga Tonga water vapour that may deflect more solar radiation to further cool the vortex. ID say a lot of contrast teleconnections are in place this winter.

Ever more complications these days, courtesy of climate change muddying the waters of teleconnections!  Makes long range winter forecasting a huge challenge more so than ever!!

Edited October 5, 2022 by Don

[northwestsnow]

Nov

Dec

 

Jan

ECMWF Oct update..

Take out for me is little sign of a  +NAO set up..

Edited October 5, 2022 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

I'll take that !

[northwestsnow]

Precipitation DJF is interesting.. 

Wetter signal at more southerly latitudes ..perhaps some legacy from a wet Nov across Southern Spain ?

 

[Don]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'll take that !

Hmm, seen worse charts for winter I suppose.....

[jules216]

Nice,to be in fór a shout early, -1.6 NAO although pattern to the east looks terrible,as usual as per recent winters.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, jules216 said:

Nice,to be in fór a shout early, -1.6 NAO although pattern to the east looks terrible,as usual as per recent winters.

The pattern to the East has been characterised by stubborn cells of HP seemingly every Winter in recent decades ..

On a brighter note Nov looks - NAO and at this stage Dec looks - NAO too.

Certainly not a disastrous ECMWF Oct update.

[Don]

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The pattern to the East has been characterised by stubborn cells of HP seemingly every Winter in recent decades ..

On a brighter note Nov looks - NAO and at this stage Dec looks - NAO too.

Certainly not a disastrous ECMWF Oct update.

Have you got the ECMWF Oct update for December, January and February?  My guess is that it looks less favorable for northern blocking as winter progresses?

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Have you got the ECMWF Oct update for December, January and February?  My guess is that it looks less favorable for northern blocking as winter progresses?

Yes ,less emphasis on Northern blocking by Feb likely subsiding in Jan.