Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

[jules216]

27 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The pattern to the East has been characterised by stubborn cells of HP seemingly every Winter in recent decades ..

On a brighter note Nov looks - NAO and at this stage Dec looks - NAO too.

Certainly not a disastrous ECMWF Oct update.

However NAO in october forecast has terrible skill level.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, jules216 said:

However NAO in october forecast has terrible skill level.

Hmmmm..

Yes that's not great, to be expected I guess.

November's update will reveal if we are on a wild goose chase.

[jules216]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmmm..

Yes that's not great, to be expected I guess.

November's update will reveal if we are on a wild goose chase.

NAO is unpredictable unless you are named Masiello, even Mike Ventrice said at one presentation years ago even at 2 weeks plus you cant predict NAO especially negative.

[CoxR]

November, December and January all look cold according to these ECMWF charts. 

Difficult to make out because of the colour scheme, but there seems to be a prominent heights over or near Greenland in November and December and prominent heights over Scandinavia in January. February  looks more mild and zonal however.

northerlies in November and December and easterlies in Jan?

[bluearmy]

Still in the raffle on ecm 

[Don]

37 minutes ago, CoxR said:

northerlies in November and December and easterlies in Jan?

Deal!! 

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Still in the raffle on ecm 

Need GLOSEA5 to come on board.

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, Don said:

Deal!! 

Need GLOSEA5 to come on board.

Yes Glosea looked less appealing, not sure when October's update is out ..

[Sunny76]

I’ll gladly take a mild feb if the other months are cold, or a mild early winter, if February is cold with snow. 

[Uncertainty]

Meteofrance going for more backloaded blocking , December looks flatter…

Dec

Jan

 

Feb

 

Bit better for coldies than last month’s update

Last month DJF

ECM getting quite consistent with its -NAO signal. That’s 3 updates in a row.

Also, I’m not convinced the seasonals have got the SSTs sussed. The Atlantic doesn’t look much like this right now (warm s of Greenland not cold like below) and the Nina is trending east based or basin wide whereas this looks modoki

Ecm SSTs 

both look almost inverse tripole

 

Actual current sst’s

Surely an east based Nina with no Atlantic cold blob would increase -nao odds?

Anyway lots of models still to report in but all 3 so far have some level of blocking so the game remains afoot.

 

[sukayuonsensnow]

On 28/09/2022 at 20:28, sukayuonsensnow said:

Based on previous years that have been similar to 2022's weather (along with continued La Niña), I think December will be close to or slightly below average temperatures, with the potential (but no guarantee) of some much colder weather for a time for northern UK. Further south both temperatures and rainfall close to the average. Any snow potential most likely in northern UK, though some wintry showers might arrive further south at times. Generally a chilly month with a higher than normal probability of frosts. Perhaps a greater than normal chance of fog or freezing fog also for a time. Chance of an interesting festive period in Scotland - and if so some notable overnight minima in the Highlands is possible. 

Very low chance of a very interesting New Year period for the UK as a whole in terms of winter weather.

January again average temperature rise, but a higher chance of some wintry spells making it further south. Any particularly cold spells will be transient. Chance of snow for a time in central and some southern parts of the UK later in the month as the Atlantic tries to make more inroads and bumps into cold air doing so - but snow amounts from this nothing out of the ordinary.

February - temperatures a little above average overall, perhaps chilly or cold early in the month. Any snow potential likely in northern parts, then milder for all with rain and some gales for a time. Perhaps drier later.

 

Overall I would say prospects for especially cold and snowy weather are decent further north, especially in Scotland where it could be an interesting winter. Further south fairly standard fare, some transient colder spells but generally no major cold spells or particularly notable snow events likely.

Precipitation, probably close to or just below average for the winter as a whole.

Temperatures will be close to average across the UK as a whole, with milder interludes in the south and especially southwest (more so second half of winter), and much colder at times further north.

Of course these are my early thoughts and could change later depending on other developments.

Still sticking with my current thoughts for this winter for now. If anything some of the recent posts and model updates are firming it up for me.

Only way I see February being cold is if there is a SSW mid-late January. Otherwise February the milder month of the three, just some question marks on how much rainfall.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

I’ll gladly take a mild feb if the other months are cold, or a mild early winter, if February is cold with snow. 

From a personal perspective I prefer the cold to come earlier- mid winter rather than February. Winters with cold early on include 1976-77, 1981-82, 1996-97 and 2010-11..In all cases the cold disapated by mid Jan. 

Winter 09-10 my favourite though, after a very wet mild Nov and start to Dec, the cold started around 11th and set for rest of winter.

 

[SqueakheartLW]

20 hours ago, Don said:

That's interesting ref W-QBO combined with higher solar activity.  Winters 1981/82 and 2000/01 both occurred near solar maximum and as we know, 81/82 was a very cold front loaded snowy winter and although 00/01 wasn't especially cold in the scheme of things, it was one of the colder winters of the 97-08 period.  However I'm not show about the ENSO or QBO phase during those winters?  Would be interesting to know!

ENSO in 1981/82 was neutral and 2000/01 was weak La Nina. 1981/82 isn't a good match unless La Nina collapses. 2000/01 is a better match for ENSO.

EQBO in both 1981/82 and 2000/01 so no match to what we see for 2022/23

 

Basically I'd put better odds on a 2000/01 repeat over a 1981/82 repeat as similar to 2022/23 both will be 3rd year in a row La Nina winters and both this winter and 2000/01 are at similar places in the solar cycle and both odd solar cycles too.

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 hours ago, CoxR said:

November, December and January all look cold according to these ECMWF charts. 

Difficult to make out because of the colour scheme, but there seems to be a prominent heights over or near Greenland in November and December and prominent heights over Scandinavia in January. February  looks more mild and zonal however.

northerlies in November and December and easterlies in Jan?

A decent Icelandic +ve anomaly there for December. Depending on how far S the heights do sit, it could be very cold and fairly dry. Could easily lurch to a Cold UK HP scenario with little troughing shown over Scandi/Europe…which would still put us in the freezer given the time of year (I suspect cold uppers would seep around the E flank of the high). There’d just be minimal snowfall.

Regardless there looks a decent chance that mean +ve heights will sit somewhere between the UK and Greenland.

Edited October 5, 2022 by CreweCold

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 hours ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

Still sticking with my current thoughts for this winter for now. If anything some of the recent posts and model updates are firming it up for me.

Only way I see February being cold is if there is a SSW mid-late January. Otherwise February the milder month of the three, just some question marks on how much rainfall.

I’ll take a milder February if we can get cold in December and into Jan. Cold that occurs around the solstice is worth its weight in gold…the foundations don’t get much more optimal than then. Mid Dec to mid Jan is where you want winter; peak darkness and least insolation.

Edited October 5, 2022 by CreweCold

[SqueakheartLW]

October 2008 repeat anyone?

P29 on today's GFS 12z showing snow

That is the first GFS run this autumn that I have seen showing a snow spike. Maybe, just maybe P29 might be correct and we get off to a very early start like we did in 2008 and of course we know what happened after that. The first proper colder than average winter for over a decade after the generally milder winters from 1997/98 through to 2007/08.

Edited October 5, 2022 by SqueakheartLW

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, SqueakheartLW said:

October 2008 repeat anyone?

P29 on today's GFS 12z showing snow

That is the first GFS run this autumn that I have seen showing a snow spike. Maybe, just maybe P29 might be correct and we get off to a very early start like we did in 2008 and of course we know what happened after that. The first proper colder than average winter for over a decade after the generally milder winters from 1997/98 through to 2006/07.

Very plausible. November looks cold at only a month’s lead time now.

[SqueakheartLW]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Very plausible. November looks cold at only a month’s lead time now.

Have to wonder where all this cold is suddenly coming from after all the warmth and heat of this year.

GFS Extended run today not picking up this cold signal. Uppers very much close to average but a lot of scatter as expected at this range.

Edited October 5, 2022 by SqueakheartLW

[Frost HoIIow]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

From a personal perspective I prefer the cold to come earlier- mid winter rather than February. Winters with cold early on include 1976-77, 1981-82, 1996-97 and 2010-11..In all cases the cold disapated by mid Jan. 

Winter 09-10 my favourite though, after a very wet mild Nov and start to Dec, the cold started around 11th and set for rest of winter.

 

Fantastic winter that was. Even better than the following one as there was good spells of snow in each winter month. Nov/Dec 2010 burst out the blocks quick but after that it just got milder and milder with February 2011 ending up very mild.

[bluearmy]

Remember that high height anomolys over europe are going to be more impactful than a weak high anomoly to our nw 

[Polar Maritime]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

From a personal perspective I prefer the cold to come earlier- mid winter rather than February. Winters with cold early on include 1976-77, 1981-82, 1996-97 and 2010-11..In all cases the cold disapated by mid Jan. 

Winter 09-10 my favourite though, after a very wet mild Nov and start to Dec, the cold started around 11th and set for rest of winter.

 

Absolutely, Here it was Narnia for weeks on end and touching -22c during 09/10. It really was something special.. I was snowed in for weeks with the best blizzards where you would struggle to breath if out in it..

Edited October 5, 2022 by Polar Maritime

[Premiere Neige]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

From a personal perspective I prefer the cold to come earlier- mid winter rather than February. Winters with cold early on include 1976-77, 1981-82, 1996-97 and 2010-11..In all cases the cold disapated by mid Jan. 

Winter 09-10 my favourite though, after a very wet mild Nov and start to Dec, the cold started around 11th and set for rest of winter.

 

Generally agree but wouldn't turn my nose up at another February 1991...

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

I’ll take a milder February if we can get cold in December and into Jan. Cold that occurs around the solstice is worth its weight in gold…the foundations don’t get much more optimal than then. Mid Dec to mid Jan is where you want winter; peak darkness and least insolation.

2009-2010 brought the perfect deep mid winter freeze. 1981-82 ditto.

[Sunny76]

35 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

Generally agree but wouldn't turn my nose up at another February 1991...

Feb 1991 was a winter month to rival January 1987, for the snow amounts. 

[damianslaw]

9 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Feb 1991 was a winter month to rival January 1987, for the snow amounts. 

Yes Feb 91 in eastern parts was very snowy, but less so in the west, same as Jan 87. Months such as Dec 81, Dec 09, Jan 10 brought more snow in the north and west than the east. Difference between easterly months and northerly months. 

 

[Don]

24 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Feb 1991 was a winter month to rival January 1987, for the snow amounts. 

Yes, where I was snow amounts were very similar in February 1991 to January 1987.  However, further east in Kent and Essex, amounts were not quite as great in 1991 compared to 1987.

3 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Basically I'd put better odds on a 2000/01 repeat over a 1981/82 repeat as similar to 2022/23 both will be 3rd year in a row La Nina winters and both this winter and 2000/01 are at similar places in the solar cycle and both odd solar cycles too.

I would definitely agree with that and think a winter similar to 2000/01 is plausible this year.

Edited October 5, 2022 by Don