Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

Don · November 17, 2022

4 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Gavsweather going for a continuation of the windy, and very wet weather, until end of November at the earliest.

Next it will be mid December at the earliest and then late December etc etc! Mustn't write winter off yet though as others have said, but the trend is not out friend!

Don · November 17, 2022

3 minutes ago, Joao 02 said:

I have found it quite poor at this range - often going for raised pressure to the N/NW that does not happen.

Yep

damianslaw · November 17, 2022

Southerly tracking jet, lows steered further south, colder blocked pressure to the north, very plausuble and the route to colder.

SqueakheartLW · November 18, 2022

Time for a bit of past pattern matching to what we have seen so far in November 2022 and how winters following this pattern turned out like in the past

500mb anomaly so far for November 2022

A clear block to the E and NE with a trough close to the UK so far

Novembers between 1836 and 2021 with similar pattern to this

1845, 1862, 1865, 1870, 1872, 1877, 1883, 1892, 1894, 1895, 1902, 1916, 1918, 1920, 1929, 1931, 1935, 1946, 1948, 1959, 1984, 1993, 2000, 2003, 2009, 2011, 2014 and 2018

All Decembers following the above November's 500mb patterns

1845 - 1946 1948 - 2018

A wet signal for Decembers in both the older years pre 1948 and the more modern years post 1948 too. Both feature a noticeable blocking feature to the NE in Decembers like they did in the Novembers too. Looks an ideal pattern to set up a SSW. Wonder how many of the featured years went on to have a SSW.

All Januaries following the above November's 500mb patterns

1845 - 1946 1948 - 2018

A generally wet signal again for all of the Januaries following the above Novembers. Past years were worse for the wet vs the more modern years which have a slightly better signal for cold than the older years but only a weaker signal.

All Februaries following the above November's 500mb patterns

1845 - 1946 1948 - 2018

Finally a respite from the wet weather with higher heights in general near the UK and in all years combined it would seem a colder signal for Februaries too with the blocking centred to the N and NW of the UK. There is a clear signal here for a -NAO in the Februaries.

All Marchs following the above November's 500mb patterns

1845 - 1946 1948 - 2018

After general agreement between old years and more modern years there is a stark difference in the March's. Older years generally saw the wet signal return in March whilst the more modern years continue on with the drier theme. Probably a warmer signal for the modern years with the older years likely to be cool and wet.

E17boy · November 18, 2022

I am happy with the updated Met forecast. The snow word is still there and temperatures edging below average at times is also there so there is no downgrade from their previous update in terms of cold phewww.

**Paul** · November 18, 2022

Locking this one now, as the main winter discussion thread is now open for the season.

https://community.netweather.tv/topic/97982-winter-2022-23-forecasts-and-discussions/?do=getNewComment

SqueakheartLW · November 18, 2022

3 hours ago, E17boy said:

I am happy with the updated Met forecast. The snow word is still there and temperatures edging below average at times is also there so there is no downgrade from their previous update in terms of cold phewww.

Hopefully we'll be seeing charts like these more often soon then

GEM 12z P09