Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

[SqueakheartLW]

GFS Extended P14

I'd take P14 from the GFS Extended run today

850hpa temps generally well below the long term mean for much of the run

If we can't have P14 then P20 isn't too bad either but not quite as good as P14

Cold Charts from P14

Initial "teaser" easterly in November

Cold easterlies end of November with snow potential

An attempt at a breakdown of the cold with a snow event very likely

Cold air wins and pushes back south again

A slider low bring potential for a rare "South of the M4 snow event"

Cold and dry after this brings risk of severe frosts

Another attempt at pushing the cold air away fails and we get another snow making machine here, especially in central parts. West may see snow turn to rain or sleet, east probably avoiding the snow from this one.

Cold flow continues although we generally lose the coldest of the uppers

 Atlantic starts to stir by the end of the run although with still having a southerly tracking jet stream combined with lingering cold this next low has potential to still bring snow as the uppers are still below 0C.

GFS Extended P20

A below average period but more concentrated in December rather than spread out like in P14

Coldest chart from P20

P20 looks like a cold anticyclonic run so more frosty and dry rather than any snow here.

[Sunny76]

8 hours ago, Premier Neige said:

2020/21 for me. Not bitterly cold but 4 or 5 snow events and lying snow for maybe 3 weeks (not 3 consecutive weeks though)...

Yeah that was cold enough at times for seasonal weather. 

[Premiere Neige]

Just having a look at temperatures for eastern Europe on the BBC weather app while waiting for match of the day. Good to see daytime temperatures falling to -2°c in Moscow and 1°c in Warsaw next week. 

[summer blizzard]

12 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Glosea Nov 2021

Glosea Nov 2022

Similarities but I'd say this years is slightly better for those wanting colder weather..

Less of a +AO and more amplified than zonal however ridging is broadly in the wrong place. 

Scope for some inversions and chilly south easterlies perhaps, possible frontal attacks if it tries to undercut, potential northerly attacks before it sinks.

Not dire, not good.

[damianslaw]

7 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Less of a +AO and more amplified than zonal however ridging is broadly in the wrong place. 

Scope for some inversions and chilly south easterlies perhaps, possible frontal attacks if it tries to undercut, potential northerly attacks before it sinks.

Not dire, not good.

As others have mentioned these are averaged out mean charts and really cant tell you much about the weekly variances that may take place. The low and high pressure anomalies are not that strong, suggesting could be very mixed outcomes. 

[sebastiaan1973]

http://Eastern Mass Weather: Winter 2022-2023 Promises Plenty of Mid Season Mayhem

[Penrith Snow]

Shaping up to be a typical NH winter, repeated cold plunges in the US, blocking high over Eastern Europe, south westerlies or Bartlett’s in the UK and the occasional Athens snowfall special  

[SteveB]

24 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Shaping up to be a typical NH winter, repeated cold plunges in the US, blocking high over Eastern Europe, south westerlies or Bartlett’s in the UK and the occasional Athens snowfall special  

That sums it up perfectly. To think it would be anything different than that is wishful thinking. 

[TSNWK]

30 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Shaping up to be a typical NH winter, repeated cold plunges in the US, blocking high over Eastern Europe, south westerlies or Bartlett’s in the UK and the occasional Athens snowfall special  

Basically our maritime climate.. which is the reason I and I suspect a few others engage in this winter hobby of searching for narina.

[northwestsnow]

35 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Shaping up to be a typical NH winter, repeated cold plunges in the US, blocking high over Eastern Europe, south westerlies or Bartlett’s in the UK and the occasional Athens snowfall special  

 

Wrong thread .

Edited November 13, 2022 by northwestsnow

[Sunny76]

21 hours ago, Premier Neige said:

Just having a look at temperatures for eastern Europe on the BBC weather app while waiting for match of the day. Good to see daytime temperatures falling to -2°c in Moscow and 1°c in Warsaw next week. 

Keeping an eye on Riga temps, as we are flying over there on the 22nd December. Nights are dropping to below freezing in the next few days, so things seem on course to become much colder.

That being said, it has been known to turn milder again around Christmas, then turns bitterly cold by the start of the new year. 

[johncam]

11 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Keeping an eye on Riga temps, as we are flying over there on the 22nd December. Nights are dropping to below freezing in the next few days, so things seem on course to become much colder.

That being said, it has been known to turn milder again around Christmas, then turns bitterly cold by the start of the new year. 

Was in Riga exactly 15 years this Tuesday was cold and snowy on and off the 5 days we were there. The river was frozen solid,  think  they struggle now to maintain cold for long periods like they used to.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I can see December continuing with the warmer than average trend seen throughout every month this year, whilst being unsettled for much of the time and a particularly stormy period at some point during the month. This continues into the first half of January before a sudden change to much colder conditions takes place. Thereon, all areas see ground frosts and the chances of snow increases. This continues into early February before turning mild and unsettled again with a few springlike days around the end of the month.

[Bristawl Si]

A typical British Winter is on the cards.

Wet, coolish up til Xmas as the Russian/East Scandi High blocks the Atlantic going any further than Blighty. Result? Rain, cool right over 'us'.

The odd colder incursion into Scotland and The North.

Things quieten down into the New Year with temps average. Into early Feb and a colder period with threat of snow, albeit light and showery.

Mid-Feb and early 'Spring' warmth arrives.

You heard it here first

 

[Blessed Weather]

A Winter 2022-23 Forecasts and Discussions thread has just been started.

 

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Much of this goes over my head but I am sure the more knowledgeable on here will have a good understanding of what he is talking about 

https://youtu.be/KtjeNvTwYeU

 

[Summer8906]

On 13/11/2022 at 17:41, TSNWK said:

Basically our maritime climate.. which is the reason I and I suspect a few others engage in this winter hobby of searching for narina.

Though Athens is a pretty maritime location, more so than much of the inland UK and a lot further south of course. More due to certain pressure patterns occurring repeatedly these days, I'd say - the 80s showed us that you can in theory still get frequent snowy winters, even in a maritime climate.

[Summer8906]

So the indication seems to be (perhaps) more blocked early on, more zonal later.

Only problem is the blocking seems to be having the effect of sending lows south, right over the UK or immediately to the W/SW, according to the GFS06Z at least. Result if that came off would just be extreme rainfall.

Hoping the winter doesn't end up being a blocked (but in the wrong place) cyclonic December followed by screaming zonality through Jan and Feb! Wake me up in March, if that's the case.

[Summer8906]

25 minutes ago, Joao 02 said:

If the blocking fails early on in the winter, there seems little chance of anything after that. 

Seems to be the case these days, certainly. In the 80s it wasn't necessarily the case: for example December 1984, 1985 and 1986 were all mild and zonal (though not silly wet) and look what happened after that.

February 1983, also, following a very zonal Dec/Jan.

[Summer8906]

On another topic is it correct that the current wet November was mostly unpredicted? I seem to remember a lot of people going for anticyclonic and frosty for Nov and also (early) Dec, due to La Nina effects - but turning milder later.

Will November turning out unexpectedly wet change people's thoughts about the winter?

[Summer8906]

44 minutes ago, Joao 02 said:

The opposite of what the Met said has happened, so the latest forecast for first half in December must be in question - my bet is that the wet/windy continues throughout. 

I do see strong similarities to 2000 in the outlook. Perhaps the second half of Dec will be much drier and colder in that case.

Biggest hope (if you want drier) at the moment is probably the jetstream dropping so far south that the low track goes over France. GFS 06Z had the low track across England for early Dec, so perhaps dropping further is not out of the question.

Edited November 17, 2022 by Summer8906

[Don]

3 hours ago, Joao 02 said:

The opposite of what the Met said has happened, so the latest forecast for first half in December must be in question - my bet is that the wet/windy continues throughout. 

I do not have much faith in the extended Met Office outlook and expect it to change during the next couple of days.

[northwestsnow]

EC46 looks decent week 3 and 4 

[Don]

3 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

I do see strong similarities to 2000 in the outlook. Perhaps the second half of Dec will be much drier and colder in that case.

Biggest hope (if you want drier) at the moment is probably the jetstream dropping so far south that the low track goes over France. GFS 06Z had the low track across England for early Dec, so perhaps dropping further is not out of the question.

November 2000 was far less mild than this month though.  Maybe one small crumb of comfort is perhaps the atmosphere is not behaving in a typical La Nina way?

Just now, northwestsnow said:

EC46 looks decent week 3 and 4 

Always weeks 3 and 4 though.  However, I appreciate the update!

[Sceptical]

Gavsweather going for a continuation of the windy, and very wet weather, until end of November at the earliest.