Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

[damianslaw]

6 minutes ago, johncam said:

Seas are a lot colder in April and sea ice is still near its max  

Ok one example of snow coming early seaaon was last Nov, SSTs were mild, arctic still mild. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

47 minutes ago, johncam said:

Be a lot harder this year to get snow to low levels , sea temps higher than normal.and little sea ice to our north so will need to be exceptionally cold air so isn't moderated too much 

I'll repeat it

 

On 02/11/2022 at 20:10, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Or actually they'll have an even bigger factor in enhancing any sea effect snowfalls from easterlies

 

[damianslaw]

Can't wait for the winter moan thread, not naming names but some will be very happy at home in that thread. 

Edited November 9, 2022 by damianslaw

[johncam]

Just now, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I'll repeat it

 

 

Indeed but as I said temps gonna have to be exceptionally low or will get moderated too much 

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Can't wait for the winter moan thread, not naming names but some will be very happy at home in that thread. 

 

[Don]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

125m I've never lived at such a ridiculous altitude

Ah, but I'm only a stones throw away from the Shropshire Hills, so there! 

[Don]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Some people travel the world to see a tornado - horses for courses !

Yeah and soon it will be to see a dusting of snow!! 

8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Can't wait for the winter moan thread, not naming names but some will be very happy at home in that thread. 

Me neither! 

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Can't wait for the winter moan thread, not naming names but some will be very happy at home in that thread. 

Well, I for one cannot see where any early-season snowfall is going to come from. Not that that rules it out of course, but surely there's more to all this than merely telling peeps what they want to hear?

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, I for one cannot see where any early-season snowfall is going to come from. Not that that rules it out of course, but surely there's more to all this than merely telling peeps what they want to hear?

I don't mind not having early season snowfall, as long as it doesn't arrive too late in winter.  However, I would take it anytime than not have any at all, since we're ever more beggars in this country when it comes to snow!!

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, I for one cannot see where any early-season snowfall is going to come from. Not that that rules it out of course, but surely there's more to all this than merely telling peeps what they want to hear?

Would have said the same this time last year, Storm Arwen delivered the good, and wasn't forecast to do so until 24 hrs ahead, indeed I don't recall any forecast going for settling snow. Snow is fickle and always a now cast. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Seem folk are ‘ignoring’ record cold and snow across swathes of the NH and concentrate on UK and Western Europe as ‘impending doom proof’.   NH is getting cold enough….and some

This late afternoon was apparently 12c….12c is mild…but it got chilly quite quickly.  Go for a walk 

BFTP

Edited November 9, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Chesil View]

1 hour ago, johncam said:

Be a lot harder this year to get snow to low levels , sea temps higher than normal.and little sea ice to our north so will need to be exceptionally cold air so isn't moderated too much 

Not strictly true. The last half decent snowfall here in coastal south Dorset occured overnight 31st Jan/1st Feb 2019. Reanalysis charts show uppers 0c to minus 5.

The greatest snow storm of modern times in southwest England in feb 1978 occurred with uppers of just minus 2c

Upper air temps aren't particularly moderated by warm sea temps. 

The dryness of any cold feed in the mix has more to do with snowmaking.

Indeed as Kircaldy has mentioned a greater difference between uppers and sea temp can actually increase convection andthe amount of possible snowfall.

Edited November 9, 2022 by Chesil View

[johncam]

I was just making a general point which still stands, there will always be exceptions 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

125m I've never lived at such a ridiculous altitude

says 202 on your profile?

104 isn't great, have Cannock, Stoke, Walsall, Bham all around 180-200

[Don]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

says 202 on your profile?

104 isn't great, have Cannock, Stoke, Walsall, Bham all around 180-200

He was referring to the elevation where I am! 

[Dancerwithwings]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

says 202 on your profile?

104 isn't great, have Cannock, Stoke, Walsall, Bham all around 180-200

My thoughts was….he was talking the !!!

[Don]

36 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

My thoughts was….he was talking the !!!

Yeah, out of me!! 

[Dancerwithwings]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Yeah, out of me!! 

I’m at 121m asl, so who cares….let ‘em carry on

[nobble]

2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Seem folk are ‘ignoring’ record cold and snow across swathes of the NH and concentrate on UK and Western Europe as ‘impending doom proof’.   NH is getting cold enough….and some

This late afternoon was apparently 12c….12c is mild…but it got chilly quite quickly.  Go for a walk 

BFTP

Kind of agree , it felt a lot cooler today , 

but mostly windchill .

however with Arctic ice and snow, ahead of a very good year last year I’m cautiously optimistic for snow 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Can't wait for the winter moan thread, not naming names but some will be very happy at home in that thread. 

Meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee! ... I want snow!

[Don]

1 hour ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee! ... I want snow!

Nah, no point in wanting snow these days as it doesn't happen anymore, so mild all the way please!! 

Edited November 9, 2022 by Don

[*Stormforce~beka*]

24 minutes ago, Don said:

Nah, no point in wanting snow these days as it doesn't happen anymore, so mild all the way please!! 

Heathen!!

[Don]

1 minute ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Heathen!!

You believe that, you'll believe anything!! 

[cheeky_monkey]

3 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee! ... I want snow!

i will be there because im sick of snow already ...Nov 8th only 5 months to go until spring returns

[Sunny76]

8 hours ago, Don said:

You believe that, you'll believe anything!! 

Scrooge.

5 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

i will be there because im sick of snow already ...Nov 8th only 5 months to go until spring returns

I can imagine how tedious it must be once you’ve seen snow for a week or so and have months of it to go. 
 

 

[Fergpfc]

3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Scrooge.

I can imagine how tedious it must be once you’ve seen snow for a week or so and have months of it to go. 
 

 

Believe me at 62 years old I can still appreciate seeing the first flake come down and that magical feeling snow can bring,however some of the winters in the 70s and 80s even here on the northern outskirts of portsmouth the snow would hang around for weeks id say after about 10 mornings of opening the curtains and still snow everywhere the novelty wears off quite quickly