Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

[North-Easterly Blast]

12 hours ago, Northern Sky said:

CET temps can be found here - https://www.metjam.co.uk/blog/central-england-temperature-cet/

No cold Decembers in the 80's apart from 1981 but plenty of cold Jan and Feb's!

Although Jan and Feb in both 1988 and 1989 were not cold.  It looks more impressive if you look at the period from 1977 to 1987; the number of cold Jans and Febs look a real treat, and both those months averaged at around 2.8*C for the CET for the 11 year period between 1977 and 1987!  

The Decembers had a prolonged spell of cold ones in the 1960s, as most of them were below average that decade, but then just over a decade and a half later, January and February were both generally very cold from 1977 to 1987.

[Don]

32 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

GFS Extended P01 at +648 hours

Bring on the early December

BEASTERLY

How far removed does that look from the current charts?!  Could happen like it did around that time in December 1995.

[TSNWK]

35 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

GFS Extended P01 at +648 hours

Bring on the early December

BEASTERLY

Bank!

[Don]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Bank!

Only need it to tick its way down to zero.  Not too much to ask surely?! 

[North-Easterly Blast]

2 hours ago, SteveB said:

Likely to be more of the same. Record warmth is the form horse. Another above average month and I can't see December being anything different. 

You can't escape the obvious!

Although we have not broken a record for an overall CET for a calendar month so far this year, the period from mid October to mid November this year almost certainly looks to be the warmest such monthly period since daily CET records began in 1772.  Certainly the warmest CET monthly period from mid October to mid November on record must be one of the most notable month's warm spells of this year.

[virtualsphere]

1 hour ago, Vorticity0123 said:

It's quite remarkable that up to now this year has seen a strong tendency towards ridging over Central-Southern Europe. If you look at the 500 hPa gph anoms for this year from January 1 up to November 6, the anomalous ridging over Central Europe is quite clear...

What I am wondering is whether these anomalies could persist throughout the winter as well. Of course it is far too simple to assume that the observed anomalies this year imply that the winter of 2022-2023 will continue in the same way. Still, I wonder what factors like the persistence of La Niña or other tropical / extratropical forcings have led to the tendency for European ridging to occur, and whether similar forcings could result in a higher likelihood of European ridging for the upcoming winter.

Yes the anomaly over Europe has certainly had an impact this year - interestingly if you look at some of the variations throughout the year, the ridging has varied in intensity and location, and taking this example for April combined with some of the modelling recently suggesting ridging to move further north (which admittedly has backtracked recently), it's possible the high could move to a more favourable location for seasonal weather as the winter progresses.   

  

[SqueakheartLW]

Fantasy Cold November 2022 update

I'm finally sub zero on my fantasy cold November 2022

The current November 2022 fantasy cold mean CET is now at .....

-0.04C (-7.64C below the 1991-2020 mean)

Don't think I'll be able to get this one much lower though

The snow hasn't really gone up by much more either but the current total of 174.8cm is decent enough

Fantasy Warm November 2022 update

Not really updated this one for you much even though I have still been doing it

The current November 2022 fantasy warm mean CET is now at .....

16.69C (+9.28C ABOVE THE 1991-2020 MEAN)

Imagine a November as warm as a typical summer month

My fantasy Warm and Cold December 2022 means so far

I have been getting cold and warm data for December recently from the GFS extended and have mins and maxes right up to 12th December so far.

Fantasy Warm December 2022 so far

My horror show warm fantasy December 2022 so far is at ......

14.34C (+8.91C ABOVE THE 1991-2020 MEAN for 1st to 12th December)

Makes December 2015 look tame in comparison

Fantasy Cold December 2022 so far

My coldies delight fantasy December 2022 so far is at ......

-1.78C (-7.21C BELOW THE 1991-2020 MEAN for 1st to 12th December)

Already running colder than both December 2010 and 1890. I have a good chance of taking this sub -2C, maybe even sub -3C at a push for the whole month.

I currently also have snow falling everyday of the month so far for December 2022 with a total of .....

62.9cm of snow so far

174.8cm is the current monthly total to beat so far from fantasy November 2022 but 62.9cm over 12 days in December isn't a bad start is it?

[reef]

I'll be surprised if we get lying snow in December here based on recent form. Since December 2010, the earliest in the season we've had any measurable lying snow is 13th January.

It's quite a shocking stat when you think about it, 12 consecutive years with no measurable lying snow in not just all of December but almost the first half of the entire winter!

Obviously it's still possible, but it tends to take far too long for things to cool down these days so unless its a solid setup, everything is too marginal here.

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, reef said:

I'll be surprised if we get lying snow in December here based on recent form. Since December 2010, the earliest in the season we've had any measurable lying snow is 13th January.

You didn't get any lying snow in December 2017? around mid-month I believe for a day and even that was only about a couple of cms!

[Premiere Neige]

1 hour ago, reef said:

I'll be surprised if we get lying snow in December here based on recent form. Since December 2010, the earliest in the season we've had any measurable lying snow is 13th January.

It's quite a shocking stat when you think about it, 12 consecutive years with no measurable lying snow in not just all of December but almost the first half of the entire winter!

Obviously it's still possible, but it tends to take far too long for things to cool down these days so unless its a solid setup, everything is too marginal here.

I'm in South Yorkshire and we had lying snow for around a week from 29th December 2020 followed by several more falls through January and February. Also had lying snow December 2017.

[Frigid]

26 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

You didn't get any lying snow in December 2017? around mid-month I believe for a day and even that was only about a couple of cms!

No lying snow here in Dec 2017. Just a few flurries. Remember being annoyed that it missed us just about. Though I got my snow fix in February during the BFTE

[sunny_vale]

I remember even in London in December 2017 there was temporarily lying snow (think it lasted until the next morning on the grass etc). Other than that, a slight icing sugar dusting in 2012 is the only December snow I can remember since 2010. 

[reef]

1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

You didn't get any lying snow in December 2017? around mid-month I believe for a day and even that was only about a couple of cms!

We had a light dusting from a snow shower on the evening of the 11th in 2017 but that was it.

The only lying snow here in 2020/21 was in February.

As I said, a lot of these events are marginal now so here just 7 miles from the coast they are almost always a bust!

[Dark Horse]

4 hours ago, reef said:

I'll be surprised if we get lying snow in December here based on recent form. Since December 2010, the earliest in the season we've had any measurable lying snow is 13th January.

It's quite a shocking stat when you think about it, 12 consecutive years with no measurable lying snow in not just all of December but almost the first half of the entire winter!

Obviously it's still possible, but it tends to take far too long for things to cool down these days so unless its a solid setup, everything is too marginal here.

Earliest lying snow 13th January? Wow has it been that bad over there for a lack of it? I guess the sea nearby to you has a slight moderating influence, I bet more inland Yorkshire does better like Sheffield/Huddersfield etc. We had this here at the back end of last November, a good few inches. I wouldn't say I'm particularly high up either at close to 100m. The winter itself was absolute pants though. Just one brief light cover from what I remember. It was that forgettable! 

 

[Northern Sky]

1 hour ago, reef said:

We had a light dusting from a snow shower on the evening of the 11th in 2017 but that was it.

The only lying snow here in 2020/21 was in February.

As I said, a lot of these events are marginal now so here just 7 miles from the coast they are almost always a bust!

That's a poor snow record, I'd move inland a bit! Even last Winter, which was a poor one, we had lying snow on the 27th and 29th of November and on Boxing Day. Then 4th Jan, 19th Feb and 31st March 2022.

The earliest snow the previous Winter was 4th Dec 2020 and lying snow 29th Dec followed by some superb snowfalls in Jan and more snow in Feb.

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, reef said:

We had a light dusting from a snow shower on the evening of the 11th in 2017 but that was it.

same here...a 1cm dusting at best and was gone within a few hours...most of the snow fell in central southern areas and remember a Grand Tour program being quite snowy then where they have the airfield for racing at Wroughton near Swindon. Sine then absolutely nadda!

[Don]

4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

same here...a 1cm dusting at best and was gone within a few hours...most of the snow fell in central southern areas and remember a Grand Tour program being quite snowy then where they have the airfield for racing at Wroughton near Swindon. Sine then absolutely nadda!

Yes, I think areas along the M4 corridor northwards did well!

Edited November 9, 2022 by Don

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

same here...a 1cm dusting at best and was gone within a few hours...most of the snow fell in central southern areas and remember a Grand Tour program being quite snowy then where they have the airfield for racing at Wroughton near Swindon. Sine then absolutely nadda!

There is little doubt southern low lying areas have become a snow desert in recent years ..

I wonder if any folk down there have considered moving up north and to high ground, perhaps too radical but I've seriously considered and came close to upgrading from 200 m to 300 m ...

 

[Don]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

I wonder if any folk down there have considered moving up north and to high ground, perhaps too radical but I've seriously considered and came close to upgrading from 200 m to 300 m ...

Well, I have (West Midlands anyway) and about 125 m.  However, going by the year we've had and if it's to be the new norm, it clearly wasn't enough!!

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

Well, I have (West Midlands anyway) and about 125 m.  However, going by the year we've had and if it's to be the new norm, it clearly wasn't enough!!

125m I've never lived at such a ridiculous altitude

[Mapantz]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

There is little doubt southern low lying areas have become a snow desert in recent years ..

I wonder if any folk down there have considered moving up north and to high ground, perhaps too radical but I've seriously considered and came close to upgrading from 200 m to 300 m ...

 

Absolutely not!

As much as I love snow, I wouldn't move from this location (10m asl) far too many other benefits living here than worrying about snow.

[northwestsnow]

23 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Absolutely not!

As much as I love snow, I wouldn't move from this location (10m asl) far too many other benefits living here than worrying about snow.

Some people travel the world to see a tornado - horses for courses !

[johncam]

Be a lot harder this year to get snow to low levels , sea temps higher than normal.and little sea ice to our north so will need to be exceptionally cold air so isn't moderated too much 

[damianslaw]

38 minutes ago, johncam said:

Be a lot harder this year to get snow to low levels , sea temps higher than normal.and little sea ice to our north so will need to be exceptionally cold air so isn't moderated too much 

Not sure on this. Evaporative cooling often takes place with less than cold uppers, rate of precipitation, dew points, air temp, wind speed more important factors. Reason for snow in April.

[johncam]

Just now, damianslaw said:

Not sure on this. Evaporative cooling often takes place with less than cold uppers, rate of precipitation, dew points, air temp, wind speed more important factors. Reason for snow in April.

Seas are a lot colder in April and sea ice is still near its max