Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Looks like the warm pattern isn't going anywhere soon looking at that chart!!

It's incredibly depressing. Especially in tandem with the EC46 which is doing it's usual trick of delaying anything of interest. It's done that for the last 3 years now. Yawn!

[Don]

10 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I'm much more downbeat now than what I was earlier today. Solar max will be playing a big part here. 

I've been downbeat for some time now, but that update takes it further!  Obviously it could be wrong but going by the anomalous warmth we've had all year, I have little reason to believe it won't be close to the mark.

Edited November 11, 2022 by Don

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

I've been downbeat for some time now, but that update takes it further!  Obviously it could be wrong but going by the anomalous warmth we've had all year, I have little reason to believe it won't be close to the mark. 

With a deep breath I have to agree with you my friend. I hope we are so wrong though lol. 

[Don]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

With a deep breath I have to agree with you my friend. I hope we are so wrong though lol. 

That said, if the high pressure can migrate further north at times, it could open up the opportunities for a few easterly shots?  Nothing sustained, but a few cold snaps?

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

That said, if the high pressure can migrate further north at times, it could open up the opportunities for a few easterly shots?  Nothing sustained, but a few cold snaps?

We remain hopeful but it sort of agrees with the ECM seasonal November update. Mid latitude block as opposed to high latitude block. I suppose we need to dry out after the last few weeks. Feels like we are on a dry, wet, dry, wet loop. 

Boring and very predictable in other words lol. 

[Don]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

We remain hopeful but it sort of agrees with the ECM seasonal November update. Mid latitude block as opposed to high latitude block. I suppose we need to dry out after the last few weeks. Feels like we are on a dry, wet, dry, wet loop. 

Boring and very predictable in other words lol. 

Yes, it has followed the ECM.  However, at least it's not showing a 1989esque Billy Bartlett setup!!  Like I said, maybe the chance of a few short lived easterlies?

Edited November 11, 2022 by Don

[Don]

33 minutes ago, CoxR said:

That semi-permanent winter killer high pressure remains over the North East Pacific, too!!

[damianslaw]

Hasnt the above been the general pressure since 12-13. To be expected really. 

Edited November 12, 2022 by damianslaw

[Don]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Hasnt the above been the general pressure since 12-13. To be expected really. 

Yeah, but doesn't make it any better!

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Yeah, but doesn't make it any better!

Its not without interest anyone wanting something cold and dry at times. High overhead and to the east would do this provided trough stays to the west and north west. A worse mean would be heights further south and west.

Edited November 12, 2022 by damianslaw

[Don]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Its not without interest anyone wanting something cold and dry at times. High overhead and to the east would do this provided trough stays to the west and north west. A worse mean would be heights further south and west.

Exactly, as I said in my post earlier, at least it's not showing high pressure over Iberia i.e. a Bartlett.  Also, could there be potential for some short lived easterly outbreaks if the high pressure temporarily migrates north? 

[damianslaw]

Just now, Don said:

Exactly, as I said in my post earlier, at least it's not showing high pressure over Iberia i.e. a Bartlett.  Also, could there be potential for some short lived easterly outbreaks if the high pressure temporarily migrates north? 

Yes.

[Mike Poole]

Just a note of caution regarding GloSea6 - we are expecting, are we not, a winter of two halves with the second half being strongly +NAO.  It is therefore quite difficult to tease out earlier potential from the 3 month average DJF plots.  Last month we could exclude Feb by looking at NDJ but we can’t do that now.  So I’d wait until we can see the monthly breakdown available from Copernicus soon.  

[Chesil View]

41 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Just a note of caution regarding GloSea6 - we are expecting, are we not, a winter of two halves with the second half being strongly +NAO.  It is therefore quite difficult to tease out earlier potential from the 3 month average DJF plots.  Last month we could exclude Feb by looking at NDJ but we can’t do that now.  So I’d wait until we can see the monthly breakdown available from Copernicus soon.  

Quite so Mike. We could have a two week cold and very snowy spell at the start of Jan or end of Dec . Which many people on here would give their right arm for, but you won't get any inkling of that from a three month smoothed anomaly chart because that's not what they're designed for.  Hanging on them every month to get an idea of daily or even weekly weather weather at any particular point is a mugs game.

[northwestsnow]

Glosea Nov 2021

Glosea Nov 2022

Similarities but I'd say this years is slightly better for those wanting colder weather..

[Flaked Queen]

Feels like a very long time ago since we last had a decent winter  

[northwestsnow]

Should add Glosea update is getting bad press on twitter land but I'm not convinced the update is as mild as people are suggesting personally..

 

[Met4Cast]

There's no sugar coating it really, the GLOSEA6 update is horrendous for those wanting cold/snowy weather. The update ranges between 60-100% chance of an above average December - February period. That is an incredibly strong & bullish signal from the model.

 

The three monthly averages are probably hiding the detail but there's no escaping what the update is showing i'm afraid, it's awful. Compare that with the signal for below average temperatures and the picture is pretty clear.

That said.. it's one possible solution from one model.

Edited November 12, 2022 by Met4Cast

[bluearmy]

as pointed out by Mike, a three month average is pretty much worthless. once the monthlies are out it can be analysed effectively 

[legritter]

Hi gang,Great posts and discussions on our upcoming Winter .We do have some encouraging signs that cold spells could arrive in our kneck of the woods in the near future possibly after a very stormy period first . But we all know there will be many wild goose chases and prozac times ,throwing toys out of prams and throwing the towel in ,then when we peep at a ten day chart showing snowmaggeta if thats the right spelling we will pop back into the forum for a good old Ramp . Sausage baps are at the ready gang and brown sauce ,Stella's on ice ,dreams of 510 Dam , sea ice on our shores ,Channel Lows , Lake effect Snow , polar lows ,radar watching and curtain twitching.  I am very aware of current living crisis so lets hope for a balanced winter ,but mother nature will do her thing ,cheers gang . 

,

 

 

[Sceptical]

24 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

There's no sugar coating it really, the GLOSEA6 update is horrendous for those wanting cold/snowy weather. The update ranges between 60-100% chance of an above average December - February period. That is an incredibly strong & bullish signal from the model.

 

The three monthly averages are probably hiding the detail but there's no escaping what the update is showing i'm afraid, it's awful. Compare that with the signal for below average temperatures and the picture is pretty clear.

That said.. it's one possible solution from one model.

I wouldn't bet against that.

[Premiere Neige]

1 hour ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Feels like a very long time ago since we last had a decent winter  

2020/21 for me. Not bitterly cold but 4 or 5 snow events and lying snow for maybe 3 weeks (not 3 consecutive weeks though)...

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Feels like a very long time ago since we last had a decent winter  

You're right. Personally I want proper winter weather in Winter, not Spring. It's been so long since we had a decent December or/and Jan. 

[Catacol]

Active looking GWO profile sitting within a strengthening Nina forecast and a North Pacific ridge that has gone nowhere in years. I would suggest this is not a good winter context. If we are to get blocking far enough north to pull some cold air in then it looks most likely in December, but the active GWO profile may actually work against this by pushing that Atlantic ridge too close to the U.K. - and then changing wavelengths as the season progresses will help reinforce the same… ie Euro High.

Time for this to change and develop, but history tells us that high pressure to our south is very hard to shift once it is in place.

Once again we may be looking to the stratosphere to offer something different. Far too early to know whether we can get a downwelling wave 2 pinch at the right time in the season but this is what I will be focusing on in hope. BFTE was 5 seasons ago now - let’s see if increasingly obvious climate stress can manufacture a tropospheric pattern that can wreck what spins above…

[Paul]

Preliminary thoughts on the upcoming winter by @Nick F

Preliminary thoughts for the Netweather 2022-23 Winter Forecast

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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A preview of thoughts looking at the main parts of the jigsaw coming together to make the Netweather 2022-23 Winter Forecast which will be issued soon. This is not a forecast for each winter month, but a look at...