Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[sheikhy]

Control looks lush at 156 hours as is the mean!!!!🌨

[northwestsnow]

My minds made up,

GFS

[IDO]

Both GFS op and para are cold, the para gets there quicker, but as others have said, the op has better long term potential. Just waiting for T240 to reach T0 has never been a hobby of mine. 

JFF T306 for both:

Either would be good based on the last couple of winters.

Edited November 25, 2022 by IDO

[Methuselah]

Is weather-porn incoming? Yes, yes, yes... sheet! 

[ICE COLD]

UKMO T168 =

[Tim Bland]

Snow away from the coasts and major cities I’d expect as that low comes in from the east. Don’t forget that there’s low thickness / DPs and minimal solar input close to the shortest day… 

[northwestsnow]

Crikey..

[Geordiesnow]

6 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Not really working in our favour tbh.

Plenty of blocking but never getting into a favourable position. Also the cold uppers to the East have all but vanished (not just in this run but last 3 runs)

Longer term remains interesting but Day 12 needs to be Day 11 tomorrow. No good if the interest every night remains in deep FI

Sometimes I think you can have too much blocking and this could prove the case here, unless I start seeing any trends of reduce heights around western Russia and Scandinavia then on a snow point of view, I think it's going to be almighty difficult too see any snow in the UK. 

Even frost could be somewhat limited due to the lack of cold air potebtial cloud cover. 

[That ECM]

Still liking the theme.

[Mucka]

Like many here no doubt, I have been keeping an eye on the development of substantial blocking to our E and waiting for it to take a ,ore predictable form.

It seems very likely now that we will begin December in a cool  slack continental flow with the more significant cold moving W across the continent into E Europe and toward the UK.

GFS 12z mean

 

 

That is a pretty good place to start if you like cold in Winter although this year especially cold may not be so welcome.

It is hard to speculate where we will go from there.

If we can get the high pressure to regress W/NW and move into Greenland cutting of the Atlantic proper then we will see a trough drop into N Europe as a response bringing V cold NE winds and potentially snow.

Alternatively we may see a stalemate between the block and Atlantic for a while which would need to have enough undercut to maintain and strengthen an E flow and hope colder air makes it way into the UK to set up battleground snow chances.

Otherwise we will see the jet slowly move N and slow return to climatological norms and more unsettled weather by the end of the first week of December.

At the moment the 2nd stalemate scenario seems most likely but there is not too much between the 3 most likely options.

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Sometimes I think you can have too much blocking and this could prove the case here, unless I start seeing any trends of reduce heights around western Russia and Scandinavia then on a snow point of view, I think it's going to be almighty difficult too see any snow in the UK. 

Even frost could be somewhat limited due to the lack of cold air potebtial cloud cover. 

Eh? UK is under a low pressure system with low thickness, low DPs thanks to air sourced from the continent and uppers of -6 or lower. There’s 15cm a cross the southern downs and hills at the end!? I think you are looking for unicorns ?

[feb1991blizzard]

Huge blizzard about to hit from the NE.

[Methuselah]

Well, this:     reminds me of December 2012, when I told my then four-year-old grandson that there was a blizzard coming... and I've never lived it down! I guess scepticism is something that comes with age?

Thou shall not ramp. Thou shall not ramp. Thou shall not ramp!

[Singularity]

Astonishing that GFS has reverted to not really sliding the low during Mon-Tue, which makes for a messier prelude to the next round of amplification that sets up the easterly. A higher chance of something happening that prevents that easterly ever really taking off.

UKM seems resolute at a glance, but actually has become a little less clean with the Mon-Tue slider.

Eyes to ECM later, which has been the most insistent on the slider being clean, passing the low fully southwest of the UK.

As far as I'm concerned, the cleaner outcome for next week lowers the odds of a stalemate or Atlantic return scenario the week after, as high pressure is able to establish a stronghold as far west as the UK or even Iceland while we wait for whatever happens to the east to play out.

[Tim Bland]

Almost everyone has a covering of snow by the end

[johncam]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Almost everyone has a covering of snow by the end

We can only hope that comes off 

[Paul]

For those who may not have seen it, @Nick F has written a blog looking at the likely pattern change around the turn of the month. 

Likely turning colder in early December, but no Beast From The East showing yet

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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A significant pattern change on the way as we head into early December, with high pressure building to the northeast bringing colder and drier conditions, but for now, there's no Beast From The East on the way.

 

[tight isobar]

*quick add * gfs 12z is..... New Testament stuff!!.. - reacting over to the EC... footballing madness.. with model madness!! .. we ARE rolling ... c,mon England.. .. winter 2022 .. 1 for the books on all verbs??

[saintkip]

7 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

*quick add * gfs 12z is..... New Testament stuff!!.. - reacting over to the EC... footballing madness.. with model madness!! .. we ARE rolling ... c,mon England.. .. winter 2022 .. 1 for the books on all verbs??

Probably not

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Probably not

Ya doubt only encourages my persona

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, saintkip said:

 

Decent 12z ie blocking. Drier and cool which will do. Fi doing it's thing but all academic atm. Tamara made a post earlier which is worth a read. Still decent looking charts going into december

Edited November 25, 2022 by swfc

[carinthian]

Evening, of all the 12z models , I think the UKMO extended looks the most robust regarding the Scandinavian High influence towards the UK.

 C

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Evening, of all the 12z models , I think the UKMO extended looks the most robust regarding the Scandinavian High influence towards the UK.

 C

Surface conditions are of interest ..

I'm guessing a brisk flow which will likely inhibit Frost.. 

 

[chris55]

56 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Crikey..

It’s GFS operational at +318 hours! Does it mean something or just eye candy? 
 

The trend is positive though  

 

[Dancerwithwings]

Just while we are awaiting for this evening’s 12z ECM output 

I dare you to look at the out come of the CFS…..just for fun as you know
 

 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose le modèle à très long terme CFS (Climate Forecast System) jusqu'à neuf mois de la NOAA/NCEP

 

Edited November 25, 2022 by Dancerwithwings