Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[Cold Winter Night]

At 216h EC has a massive dual core High with 1055 hPa in Russia and 1040 hPa between Norway and Iceland.
Impressive, what a beast.

[January Snowstorm]

And at 240hrs the ecm is ready to unleash the beast!

Excellent latter part to the run!

[Ali1977]

Epic , just a shame it’s day 10. 

[Decemberof2010]

And here is the ECM 240 chart

Tik tok 

 

[Cloud 10]

ECM +240hr anomalie.

 

[Cold Winter Night]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Epic , just a shame it’s day 10. 

Reverse zonal flow from Mongolia to Greenland.

[Snowyowl9]

Winter is coming.

[chris55]

3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Cherry picking implies there's only a select very few to choose from..but there's a huge number of them. And this is me taking a stab at the potential for a cold snap a little further down the line.

This is a forum mate and it's all about putting your neck on the line and seeing how it may evolve.

This is know different than someone pointing out the teleconnections are about to change so the conditions may become milder or colder in a few weeks!

Big respect Matt, don’t get me wrong I love all these charts.

Ensembles for 240-316 are spread (as you’d expect. More cold than mild though)  trend is good.

[Skullzrulerz]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Epic , just a shame it’s day 10. 

Indeed, while it's a good run it the great stuff remains at day 10 and beyond which it's disappointing.

Yellow card 

Edited November 25, 2022 by Skullzrulerz

[johncam]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Epic , just a shame it’s day 10. 

Exactly any cold  seems to getting pushed further back, think we need to temper our expectations 

 

 

 

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Epic , just a shame it’s day 10. 

It’s ticking down though. It’s always been around 4TH/5th we’ve been looking at. 12days has become 10.

[Mike Poole]

COLOSSAL!

Pretty sure I’ve never seen a ‘50’ on one of these, the scale stops at 44

Edited November 25, 2022 by Mike Poole

[geordiekev]

Instant red card to the first person who mentions 'breakdown' I'm afraid. Hard not to cherry pick with so many juicy charts to choose from

[That ECM]

Now that’s nice.

[geordiekev]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

COLOSSAL!

Pretty sure I’ve never seen a ‘50’ on one of these, the scale stops at 44

Can Prof Brian confirm this isn't in fact a black hole as the Polar Vortex appears to be disappearing somewhere other than Northern Hemisphere. We need some moisture to stick around 

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

COLOSSAL!

Pretty sure I’ve never seen a ‘50’ on one of these, the scale stops at 44

I just hope it's not trying to make up for the downgrade compared to yesterday's run in the medium term. Hope we aren't just puppets on a string again. 

[Tim Bland]

That’s a beast waiting to our East! 

[mountain shadow]

12 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

ECM +240hr anomalie.

 

When the black hole anomalies start to appear, I start to take notice.

[Scandinavian High.]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

That’s a beast waiting to our East! 

It would be magical if the beast unlocked for Christmas Eve onwards .

[damianslaw]

I mentioned the 5th Dec being the date to watch a week back, and as it creeps into the 10 day timeframe, well indeed ECM and GFS showing a change around that date to something substantively colder and probably sustained. Alas that's a long way off. GFS continues to play around with the options in the reliable, and suggest shortwave trough activity getting in the way of a cleaner quicker easterly flow, UKMO and ECM not so, by this time next week they both show a long fetch easterly drawing in not particularly cold uppers, however, there is a deep cold pool developing further east at the same time and ECM by the 5th shows this knocking on our door as the high ridges further west to our north. GFS does eventually go the same way, but its not as clean an evolution. 

In the short term all eyes on the position of expected trough disruption early next week as this will be key to how quick we pull in the easterly flow. It is only very early in the new winter season and to expect easterly to give cold conditions straight away after such a warm Autumn is too much to ask - this looks a slow burning cold spell, quite a classic evolution that often occured back in the day so to speak, but in this world of instant results, we've perhaps become a bit too impatient in our wanting. Remember the beast from the east 2018 was also a very slow burner and took a good week before the cold uppers arrived.

[Notty]

13 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

That’s a beast waiting to our East! 

On its way to Greece

[SqueakheartLW]

If I do recall I remember some of the long range models hinting at an east based -NAO for December 2022

That mean is almost an easterly but not quite. Must be some good ensemble members in there somewhere. The best part though is that 850hpa temp anomaly with those nice blues all over the UK.

Not something we have really been able to say all year to see a run with the model mean consistently below the long term mean really from the end of this month out to 384 hours away and the gap appears to grow throughout.

Perhaps it would be ironic if for 11 months of this year breaking 2014's CET mean record or even getting our first official 11C CET annual mean is a dead cert then gets undone by a December like 2010

My pick of some of the better cold charts from this GFS 12z run

A nice selection here

 

 I remember the month ahead forecast mentioning this cold and how northerlies were going to be the most likely outcome if it turned colder late November or early December.

I can clearly see far more easterly options than northerlies amongst the members.

[sheikhy]

Not only does ecm look good earlier but the whole damn run is fantastic!!

[sheikhy]

Oh just to add just as i thought gfs big outlier between 1st and 6th december!!game on!!

[stodge]

Evening all

Some excellent charts for fans of cold - for fans of snow too in some areas.

One or two complaining about timing but the process has been marching forward for some days and begins with the disruption and dissolution of the Atlantic trough.

From the 12Z suite, ECM, GFS OP, GEM, JMA and UKM at T+120 - not some fantasy island timescale but within the reliable.

They may not be identical but they are very similar showing the rising heights to the NE and the retreat of the Atlantic trough far to the west and, for the most part, my fears of too much residual energy in the northern arm of the jet seem to be misplaced.

It's the first and important stage of the cool down - get rid of the Atlantic. Now, that doesn't mean immediate cold - we need to build the heights and get in the continental drift and then wait for the really cold air to move across Eurasia toward us. That may take a few days and it's still possible the flow will be more ESE than East or NE and that may impact snow hopes for many but for those wanting cold first, it's more steps forward this evening. The modelling of small and secondary LP at this distance is always prone to error - it's the bigger picture which we need to consider and at the moment and coming into the reliable it looks like a significant pattern change.