Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[IDO]

ECM and GFS D10 means not far off in the larger scale picture:

Both look like they will drop the Asia tPV towards Europe with time. The NE Canadian smaller sister tPV should not put too much pressure on the Greenland region.

So retrogression of the high towards Greenland and a Euro trough post D10 looks possible (assuming the models are on point).

[winterof79]

1 hour ago, jules216 said:

Cut off low Portugal pumping high pressure in to central Europe and easterly for Turkey. Just as I said before morning run.

"1000 posts showing Snow Nirvana past 240h desired model that shows this."

Then you self gratify with a day Fi post .Let folk get exited please its our hobby.

[Chesil View]

In slow burner situations like the one we are entering my late grandmother's weather saying always springs to mind

Long foretold long to last, soonest come soonest past.

[Mike Poole]

Hey, welcome back to the mad house, @nick sussex!  We are in interesting times…

ECM mean at T240 still very clear in the position of the blocking high anomaly, to our north and maybe a bit bi-modal between south Greenland and Scandi:

Looking at the clusters T192-T240, one thing sticks out is how the variance between whatever clusters the algorithm has deemed appropriate at this timescale has reduced in the last couple of days.  Now, the location of the block and even its shape doesn’t vary too much:

It is pretty much all north of the UK, maybe cluster 3 just includes UK, so that firms up the easterly.  Also, the idea of it heading off to Russia seems to be discounted now, it is staying put to our north somewhere.  

T264+:

Here we seem headed to a Greenland block, only difference of whether it is a weak block (cluster 2), strong block (cluster 1) or monster block (cluster 3).

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Hey, welcome back to the mad house, @nick sussex!  We are in interesting times…

ECM mean at T240 still very clear in the position of the blocking high anomaly, to our north and maybe a bit bi-modal between south Greenland and Scandi:

Looking at the clusters T192-T240, one thing sticks out is how the variance between whatever clusters the algorithm has deemed appropriate at this timescale has reduced in the last couple of days.  Now, the location of the block and even its shape doesn’t vary too much:

It is pretty much all north of the UK, maybe cluster 3 just includes UK, so that firms up the easterly.  Also, the idea of it heading off to Russia seems to be discounted now, it is staying put to our north somewhere.  

T264+:

Here we seem headed to a Greenland block, only difference of whether it is a weak block (cluster 2), strong block (cluster 1) or monster block (cluster 3).

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Hey, welcome back to the mad house, @nick sussex!  We are in interesting times…

ECM mean at T240 still very clear in the position of the blocking high anomaly, to our north and maybe a bit bi-modal between south Greenland and Scandi:

Looking at the clusters T192-T240, one thing sticks out is how the variance between whatever clusters the algorithm has deemed appropriate at this timescale has reduced in the last couple of days.  Now, the location of the block and even its shape doesn’t vary too much:

It is pretty much all north of the UK, maybe cluster 3 just includes UK, so that firms up the easterly.  Also, the idea of it heading off to Russia seems to be discounted now, it is staying put to our north somewhere.  

T264+:

Here we seem headed to a Greenland block, only difference of whether it is a weak block (cluster 2), strong block (cluster 1) or monster block (cluster 3).

Wow Mike thanks..that's really impressive nearly all positive news...but quite a few of them and the ops have shown the high to the North and lows to the south,only problem is most are showing the low to the West of Spain and Portugal possibly spinning up milder air into the mix..ideally we need a correction eastward of these lows around Italy area to really penetrate the easterly..all in all very good though!

[Liam Burge]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Hey, welcome back to the mad house, @nick sussex!  We are in interesting times…

ECM mean at T240 still very clear in the position of the blocking high anomaly, to our north and maybe a bit bi-modal between south Greenland and Scandi:

Looking at the clusters T192-T240, one thing sticks out is how the variance between whatever clusters the algorithm has deemed appropriate at this timescale has reduced in the last couple of days.  Now, the location of the block and even its shape doesn’t vary too much:

It is pretty much all north of the UK, maybe cluster 3 just includes UK, so that firms up the easterly.  Also, the idea of it heading off to Russia seems to be discounted now, it is staying put to our north somewhere.  

T264+:

Here we seem headed to a Greenland block, only difference of whether it is a weak block (cluster 2), strong block (cluster 1) or monster block (cluster 3).

I don't think I have ever seen whites on a cluster map.

[ANYWEATHER]

Altogether looking very good on this mornings runs from gfs  and ecm. Looks like there will be a noticeable chill from the east by the time we get to Thursday.  Even though there are various outcomes for deeper cold the Atlantic looks like it's going to give up the fight certainly for now, hich can only mean good news if you want proper deeper cold over the uk. It's as others said, a slow burner ,and not going to be a flash in the pan cold spell........ 

 

[Tim Bland]

GFS P …. Does the P stand for Porn? 

[feb1991blizzard]

34 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 

I think what’s looking clear is to get some deeper colder and more unstable  air into the UK will require a splicing of the large high with a low dropping south to the east.

I .

and right on cue - the Eps suite has trended that way.

Edited November 26, 2022 by feb1991blizzard

[bluearmy]

2 hours ago, jules216 said:

But you Can already see corrections that easterly is beigh cut off on this morning ECMWF as exactly how i pointed out! Small trough France/Portugal only serve to delay proper easterly, how come no one else talking about this just pure -NAO fixation.

Yes jules - looks like, the se euro high anom will likely affect our chances of caa getting to w europe pre day 12

this is not a surprise given the recent modelling  the period when the Russian ridge pushes west and introduces a reverse zonal flow across the e atlantic sector with an Iberian low anom becoming rather stuck 

In the extended period  we are cross model trending to greeny upper ridge sceuro trough with jet driving into Iberia. The eps clusters reveal that unsurprisingly contains some variance but I can’t recall cross model ens agreement like this for day 15

     

 

 

Edited November 26, 2022 by bluearmy

[BlueHedgehog074]

For a spot of fun, the 00Z JMA throws up this scenario this morning at 264 hours:

The Northern UK High Pressure gets squashed up towards Iceland and parts of Greenland creating quite a nice block in that area. Few runs from some models that are playing about with retrogression at the moment. The 850 hPa temperatures might not be that impressive at the time on the JMA towards the end, but I imagine those colder 850 hPa temperatures would flood down South through the UK.

Shown a demonstration earlier on in the run how an area of the Vortex up North breaks off from the one over the Central Northern America/Canada area. This then swings down South-East squeezing the UK/Northern UK High out West to form a block over Western Iceland. A keen Scandinavian trough develops as a result, also. Black arrows shows this process, while the red arrows shows what happens to the blocking High. Vortex ends up splitting into two lobes:

 

This again just for amusement. But a good thing to see to prolong cool or cold weather. And to help unleash the Arctic! 

Too far out to get too mouth drooly over, but hopefully something that can develop from this blocking pattern.

Also, a welcome back to Nick! 

Edited November 26, 2022 by DiagonalRedLine

[Day 10]

GFS, GFSP, UKMO & ECM at 120.

They all go their merry way from here, but what a position we find ourselves in at day 5 before Winter has even begun.

Who needs the World Cup!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

ukmo at t168.  Chart of the morning fir me.  Trough sinking SSE, AZH ridging directly N and totally blocking Atlantic, Scandi block looking to connect to AZH….long lasting blocking and Easterly….and the cold will follow.  I for one see a very seasonal December, with sone niceties thrown in along the line at some point.

 

BFTP

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,GFS the pick of the bunch for cold temperatures and deep into unreliable time wants to bring high pressure to the northwest along with low pressure to the northeast allowing an Arctic blast.Lots to be hopeful for a wintery set up heading towards Christmas.

[SLEETY]

3 hours ago, jules216 said:

Never seen so much hype when ensemble mean is showing -2 uppers, what is clear to an unbiast viewer there are 2 issues. 1. Trough that slides down to Portugal pushing ahead high pressure from Greece-Turkey to central/east Europe cutting of Easterly pronto. 2.Attempt at -NAO later engages Scandi trough with Portuguese one forcing west based -NAO later putting America in to freezer yet again! I will revisit this post again in 2 weeks tíme to prove I was right(again) in between 1000 posts showing Snow Nirvana past 240h desired model that shows this.

Your talking like 100% the Ecm will verify Exactly as shown after 144 hours, let's come back in ten days time to see how close it actually is to this run, it didn't even want to know about the Easterly a few days ago,so why should we believe the latter parts of this run are spot-on. 

People need to stop hanging off every single OP run! 

The Ecm like others models will flip flop around after 144 hours anyway

 

Someone save the Ecm from 168 hours onwards then post them compared to reality from 6 days onwards forb Jules next week, should be fun

Edited November 26, 2022 by SLEETY

[Met4Cast]

I've been keeping an eye on the multi-model ensembles over the last couple of days & we're seeing a slow and subtle shift away from deeper cold air reaching the UK. Despite the pretty synoptics, the "double high" across Scandinavia & Russia prevents colder air from advecting westwards across Europe and towards the UK.

Seasonal sure, foggy & perhaps even frosty under clear skies, but not snowy or particularly noteworthy, despite the synoptics. The interest lies in whether we see the high retrogress towards Greenland & a trigger low drop south through Scandi to bring the proper cold but that's a long way off. 

[blizzard81]

26 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Yes jules - looks like, the se euro high anom will likely affect our chances of caa getting to w europe pre day 12

this is not a surprise given the recent modelling  the period when the Russian ridge pushes west and introduces a reverse zonal flow across the e atlantic sector with an Iberian low anom becoming rather stuck 

In the extended period  we are cross model trending to greeny upper ridge sceuro trough with jet driving into Iberia. The eps clusters reveal that unsurprisingly contains some variance but I can’t recall cross model ens agreement like this for day 15

     

 

 

Thanks blue. Do you happen to know how the ecm control went?

[sheikhy]

Icon moves to gfs at 120 hours with scandi high not backing as far west!back to that little saga this morning!!

[sheikhy]

Alll in all models look great especially gfs and ecm!!06z about to roll....

[blizzard81]

I'm more than happy to just hopefully experience some nice seasonal weather as we enter Dec. It's been a very long time since we have experienced this. 

[ANYWEATHER]

Just on a side note, it's not very often you see the Atlantic  Predicted to be so quiet. ............

[Lukesluckybunch]

6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Icon moves to gfs at 120 hours with scandi high not backing as far west!back to that little saga this morning!!

Is this a good thing..2m temps were not as cold on the icon.

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I'm more than happy to just hopefully experience some nice seasonal weather as we enter Dec. It's been a very long time since we have experienced this. 

That's exactly where I am mate ..

Nothing worse than wind and rain this time of year..

Certainly will feel colder next week I'm on FOG watch..

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I'm more than happy to just hopefully experience some nice seasonal weather as we enter Dec. It's been a very long time since we have experienced this. 

Same here, getting rid of the Azores ridge, punctured by a wave of westerly Atlantic storms, was getting a bit repetitive and boring. A slack easterly/SE'ly will make a nice change, and that looks nailed on. 

Those worried about the ECM op, that was an outlier early on, and it is the usual ECM op deja vu of overplaying heights in setups like this:

London Oz ECM:  

Yesterday's 12z: 

[bluearmy]

20 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Thanks blue. Do you happen to know how the ecm control went?

It is cluster 2 on the extended 

all eps are freely available on meteociel 

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble CEP/ECMWF ENS

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 

Edited November 26, 2022 by bluearmy