Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

-11.7

Aye about -10 850's need here for showers, frontal though dosen't need to be that low

[MattStoke]

15 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Jeeze.  What on earth will we need for powder at sea level in the south east

Absolute zero.

[Kasim Awan]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye about -10 850's need here for showers, frontal though dosen't need to be that low

-6.7 will suffice for you in showers off the North Sea

-8.8 on the east coast for wet snow

I need -4.5

Edited November 26, 2022 by Kasim Awan

[Methuselah]

Synoptically it's a brilliant run; temperature-wise not so much... such is the legacy of 11 months' above average temps?

    

    

    

And it ends up looking vaguely similar to January 2021: heavy showers of rain with perhaps a few blobs of sleet in the offing!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

-6.7 will suffice for you in showers off the North Sea

I need -4.5

Yes - ive seen him get snow showers from a NW flow with higher than -8c before..

[Anthony Burden]

A quick follow on from my earlier blog GFS 06z is following on with the different set up of high pressure to our northwest and low pressure to the northeast bringing a very quick Arctic flow and major drop in hpa temperatures.Forget the slower look for cold from the east look north for BINGO.

[Lukesluckybunch]

The last couple of his runs have thrown up that low to the West of Portugal in the medium term,it needs watching as it could become a real spoiler!

[Daniel*]

NAO trending more robustly negative… initially the core of blocking is favoured over Scandinavia but then migrating to North Atlantic even Greenland. It is unlikely we would see the consequence of this on ground till second week of December. As for 850s don’t bother looking at them in FI often closer they trend colder. 

[That ECM]

What do you need for squeaky snow when you walk on it?

 

An awesome mean again.  

[Kasim Awan]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - ive seen him get snow showers from a NW flow with higher than -8c before..

Evap cooling from a streamer will drop the freezing level from 700m to 300m in a slow -4c upper flow. combine that with a surface inversion on a cold morning to fill the 300m to 200m >0C gap & 5-10cm with measley uppers is possible inland at sea level.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Kasim Awan

[MattStoke]

Seen lots of snow here from -2°C 850hpa temperatures, even from showers but later into winter. Tiny bit of altitude makes a big difference.

[Geordiesnow]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Synoptically it's a brilliant run; temperature-wise not so much... such is the legacy of 11 months' above average temps?

    

    

    

And it ends up looking vaguely similar to January 2021: heavy showers of rain with perhaps a few blobs of sleet in the offing!

Quite sad seeing those charts, really does smack of climate change yet despite that, brutal cold is still around in the northern hemisphere but the PV just seems to split in the usual locations, one lobe goes towards America and Canada and the other goes to Asia and Siberia therefore Scandinavia and Europe get left with the scraps and you see the result of that! 

Decent runs on a seasonal point of view and those who hate wind and rain, nothing at all in the output excites me on a snow enthusiast point of view. We really need too see more cold troughing in the outputs, far too much yellow on the charts! 

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

What do you need for squeaky snow when you walk on it?

 

An awesome mean again.  

Better heights around greenland,in this mean also compare to 0z..i.wouldn't rule out that we could see an omega block developing either

Edited November 26, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[Ventnor Viking]

I think its important to focus on the overall trends and pattern, rather the fine details such as the upper temps and precipitation, which have so many factors which can affect these. Therefore the models will not be able to determine with any real accuracy at such a range. 

 

Overall very happy with the high level consistency into mid December 

Edited November 26, 2022 by Ventnor Viking

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Seen lots of snow here from -2°C 850hpa temperatures, even from showers but later into winter. Tiny bit of altitude makes a big difference.

Aye dosen't need to be as cold from late Feb, more especially April, where it can be 8 degrees or so! no way will it snow before a shower in 8 degrees Dec and Jan

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - ive seen him get snow showers from a NW flow with higher than -8c before..

The warmest uppers I've ever had snow from (not counting those very dry easterlies that sometimes generate the odd snow grain) was -4C, back in January 2018, but the showers/storms off the North Sea were particularly intense that day. Under more normal conditions, I need something like -9C...

[CoventryWeather]

Just had a look at the charts, and I'm starting to think models are looking at bringing a spell if cold weather rather than a snap. Could this December be one to remember? Just need some consistency and reliability now. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Not quite sure of uppers here, but only wet snow/sleet on these 2 days, uppers clearly were not cold enough for proper snow

[MattStoke]

7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye dosen't need to be as cold from late Feb, more especially April, where it can be 8 degrees or so! no way will it snow before a shower in 8 degrees Dec and Jan

Don’t need a special weather pattern to get snow here, unlike where I grew up in the south. 

Snow falls with 0°C 850hpa temperatures on the continent. Curse our maritime climate!

Edited November 26, 2022 by MattStoke

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Not quite sure of uppers here, but only wet snow/sleet on these 2 days, uppers clearly were not cold enough for proper snow

That was when I had Covid... It definitely snowed, and settled, over here!

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Not quite sure of uppers here, but only wet snow/sleet on these 2 days, uppers clearly were not cold enough for proper snow

well everything that fell from the sky here was snow (not much admittedly) and altitude here is very low, add in 4 of the biggest blocks of flats in the uk and the heat generated from them....

[Met4Cast]

It's going to be a very long & bumpy winter if every run of the new GFS shows 2010 repeats in FI. It's been interestingly consistent with the signal to retrogress and drop a trough south into Scandi ushering in much colder air across the UK after the initial easterly. 

The issue is - It's too early to know what biases the model has, could we be seeing a massive over-amplification bias here & in actual fact the current operational GFS is closer to the reality we'll eventually see, or.. is the model just that much better at picking out signals for Greenland blocking? Time will tell.. 

The update is supposedly quite minor

 

Edited November 26, 2022 by Met4Cast

[Midlands Ice Age]

38 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Oh my days

spotlight on Greenland...

Where has the UK gone?

It looks it may end up in the east coast of the USA if that chart should occur. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

well everything that fell from the sky here was snow (not much admittedly) and altitude here is very low, add in 4 of the biggest blocks of flats in the uk and the heat generated from them....

and here but wet and non settling

[Puddy Galore]

1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

I'm sorry for anyone who finds my posts (if there's anyone) interesting here just feeling a bit overwhelmed at the moment. Will still do my weekly document write-ups but probably won't post here much as I can't really keep up as we go into the best chance we've arguably had for a while in early Winter. Sorry that this is off topic mods just wanted to let  the 0 people interested. I don't wish to sound egotistical, after all I'm not that well versed in meteorology it's just some people seem to find my posts interesting I guess. It's sort of a half goodbye for now, don't know when I'll be back to my normal mental state though. If I still feel overwhelmed throughout Winter, good luck to everyone. Of course, I may feel better next week I just don't know.

Anyway, my thoughts for now is that if this does happen, it'll be fairly decent away from lowland areas, depending on the exact direction I suppose that North Sea snow showers can occur but whether this will be cold enough to properly cool this coasts remains unknown. I think the main benefit of this is that it could bring snow to areas away from the usual early Winter areas but again, that still remain unknown. I'm not willing to commit to anything really as of yet but the AAM forecasts suggest that we'll see a gradual weakening of the Nino Atmospheric state into next week and lag correlations would suggest the second week of December or sometime around then to be the transition period before a re-entry into the Nino state and so mid to late December, interest may arise again but it's too far away for anything solid.

Take care of yourself Eagle Eye.  A great deal of the technical posts in here are well above my meteorological knowledge but I can get the general direction of travel from them but I do respect the knowledge and learning that goes into all the posts in this thread.