Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[Lukesluckybunch]

UKMO isn't too bad,a undercut soon happening after 168

[Lukesluckybunch]

Great ECM 144..cold.uppers too

[KTtom]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

UKMO isn't too bad,a undercut soon happening after 168

Agree but look at ECM at day 6 below...chalk and cheese, those troughs are no where to be seen...totally agree with Mark, whilst this is a model thread, it can be misleading when people are talking about charts 300 hours away whilst finding the most favarouble version of gfs.....anyway, ecm very good so far for some settled dry conditions...

 

[Rayth]

Well I’d take this ensemble set for the start of any December 

 

 

[jules216]

38 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Let's just hope you're very wrong then. 

I don't think anyone would disagree that the projected uppers are not spectacular, but the pattern with such a strong positive heights anomaly is what people are getting excited about. We usual start December mild and wet with an angry PV over Greenland...... just nice to see something a little different showing. 

I don't think I've ever seen you be positive about a colder scenario - always in the I told you so brigade. 

But you Can already see corrections that easterly is beigh cut off on this morning ECMWF as exactly how i pointed out! Small trough France/Portugal only serve to delay proper easterly, how come no one else talking about this just pure -NAO fixation.

[Kasim Awan]

How anyone can complain with a setup like this going into the start of winter is beyond me.. too many on here have expectations set way too high.

[carinthian]

23 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. Just an update from the above post. Again , good signs at 144t  as  the big tree models in agreement to developments in the same time frame. The long established North Russian high pushes a  strong ridge across Northern and Central Britain and develops an  Easterly drift across the south by this time next week. So one step at a time is order of the day. Lets see if the trend and agreement in the models is still there at 120t and solid tomorrow morning. The path to a prolonged cold spell is always going to be difficult to predict as mentioned in the above post yesterday but the signs continue to look favourable.

C

Good Morning. The count down continues. Good news all the big three models at 120t show the strengthening of the ridge across The British Isles from the mother high pressure building over NE Europe. At this instant the ECM seems the most robust. It will not be until Monday morning at 72 t outputs will we be able to access what kind of Easterly is like to develop. Going forward some form of trough disruption into the West of the UK is being shown by some models. However, this is notoriously difficult to forecast at this stage as is any cold pool developments from the East. So all in all, looking good for cold fans but as I have indicted Monday morning is likely to be judgement day.Enjoy the weekend and weather watching.

C

[IDO]

The GEFS at D12 highlight the scatter, but also the potential:

It looks like GFS moving towards a cleaner undercut between D6-7 aligning with other models, so one hurdle jumped. That brings in the SE'ly/E'ly. Then back to what was showing a few days ago, the main tPV segment in Asia, and spreading towards our region with retrogressing heights to Greenland:

GEFS mean D8-16 (0Z): 

As the fireworks (FI) are still post D10 (snow potential), then the take is a cooling timeline, then moving slowly into colder territory...leading where needs more runs. 

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

How anyone can complain with a setup like this going into the start of winter is beyond me.. too many on here have expectations set way too high.

Exactly kasim,even at 144 in ecm there was improvement.need be looking at Greenland last two frames now..watch it turn yellow and orange

[Mark Smithy]

The general GEFS ensemble trend is cooler, but you'd expect that coming into December from a mild autumn:

Cooler yes. Cold? Possibly but at the moment there's nothing particularly exceptional in these ensembles. Often we see really whacky cold ones starting to appear in F.I.

Interestingly, this is one of the few GFS operationals that hasn't yo-yo'd either within its own run or against previous outputs. Whether that's a sign that this operational is more credible I'm not sure but it's certainly a general pattern in the short and medium term that looks plausible.

[jules216]

Cut off low Portugal pumping high pressure in to central Europe and easterly for Turkey. Just as I said before morning run.

[KTtom]

12 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

How anyone can complain with a setup like this going into the start of winter is beyond me.. too many on here have expectations set way too high.

Agree, Mrs should be able to give the tumble dryer a break with those uppers incomming

[mulzy]

ECM not a bad run though not as stellar as recent runs.  Day 10 is very messy and could go either way from there.

More runs needed! (I'll get my coat!)

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, mulzy said:

ECM not a bad run though not as stellar as recent runs.  Day 10 is very messy and could go either way from there.

More runs needed! (I'll get my coat!)

It looks like a trough could pull down from the northeast..I with bitterly cold air..although perhaps not enough amplification out west..maybe the pattern would be squashed although at this point heights are starting too build towards Greenland again

[Weather-history]

How can this happen?

1035-1040mb to the north

Then causally an absolutely flimsy low just comes up from the south against that block

To lead to this and push it to one side with a feather

Visually,  just doesn't look plausible to me.

 

[mulzy]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

How can this happen?

1035-1040mb to the north

Then causally an absolutely flimsy low just comes up from the south against that block

To lead to this and push it to one side with a feather

Visually,  just doesn't look plausible to me.

 

Isn't the more intense trough to the north east putting pressure on the High?

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

How can this happen?

1035-1040mb to the north

Then causally an absolutely flimsy low just comes up from the south against that block

To lead to this and push it to one side with a feather

Visually,  just doesn't look plausible to me.

 

Either way..I think high pressure looks to rule the roost here..for quite some time!

Just now, mulzy said:

Isn't the more intense trough to the north east putting pressure on the High?

Split vortex could happen up through the pole after this?

[Weather-history]

36 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

How anyone can complain with a setup like this going into the start of winter is beyond me.. too many on here have expectations set way too high.

It could be a case of looking better than it tastes (under seasoned) but we won't know until after the event.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Onto the 6z for some slight improvements timeframe 144-192 ,ECM was particularly good during this period..can the gfs follow

[joggs]

22 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

How can this happen?

1035-1040mb to the north

Then causally an absolutely flimsy low just comes up from the south against that block

To lead to this and push it to one side with a feather

Visually,  just doesn't look plausible to me.

 

It's the British isles. It can happen

[mountain shadow]

19 minutes ago, joggs said:

It's the British isles. It can happen

The least from the East 

[Nick F]

Quite a messy trough disruption from the models this morning against the block building west out of Russia. So not really going to bring the clean deep cold easterly some might be yearning for, at least initially.

As you can see from the GEFS 500mb mean, Atlantic trough disrupts towards SW Europe, lowering height here, but this in turn raises heights further east over southern Europe, ideally want heights to lower east through the whole of southern Europe, otherwise the Scandi high gets pulled south. That is a danger shown by some op runs.

However, longer-term prospects still look good, the high latitude blocking never really goes away, just uncertainty where or if it will drift, GFS para going for the December after MJO phase 8 look, with troughing to our E/NE and block migrating to Iceland / Greenland.

Still plenty of potential ahead in early December, but patience required perhaps ...

[fromey]

1 hour ago, jules216 said:

Cut off low Portugal pumping high pressure in to central Europe and easterly for Turkey. Just as I said before morning run.

You may be right and if your are fair play But that chart is 9 days away probably a lot more flip flopping to come before then. 

[nick sussex]

Greetings all from Cyprus .

I’ve come out of hibernation !

If you’re a UK coldie the outputs are encouraging with the potential for some colder weather .

I think what’s looking clear is to get some deeper colder and more unstable  air into the UK will require a splicing of the large high with a low dropping south to the east.

I certainly wouldn’t look at post day 7 detail wise as set in stone . The ECM with that huge high and short waves flying all over the place looks like its waiting for a clear signal as to what happens next .

Given some of the crud that could be dished out the glass half full approach is the way to go I think .

[Lukesluckybunch]

Onto the 6z for some slight improvements timeframe 144-192 ,ECM was particularly good during this period..can the gfs follow

My word that is some great ECM mean better than the op!