Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[Jackski4]

Colder air sneaking in earlier on this run? Was around 4TH/5TH now around 2nd/3rd. 
 

Game on.

[That ECM]

T144 not T240 plus. get here then see where we go.

Edited November 25, 2022 by That ECM

[Ali1977]

Ignore the op, check out the P

much better

day 8 strong easterly, day 10 big Greeny high and freeze inbound 

Edited November 25, 2022 by Ali1977

[GSP]

Very slack winds forecasted next week, which could mean a lot of dense fog and some icy patches.

Still, it’s seasonal weather!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Great chart viewing at the moment.  I know someone else said it as well as me, the early and intense deep cold pooling over Siberia had/has to be watched….there are many factors applying support to cold being very much in the fore.  2nd week for first ‘cold’ hit?  18z thinks so but could be some very chilly nights and cold foggy days before.  I think the 18z is building slowly towards a very cold end.  Blocked is the theme and the ever important ‘correct’ linkage with the AZH

 

BFTP

Edited November 25, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Tim Bland]

Decided to watch the GFS(p) instead tonight

[northwestsnow]

Thats brutally cold for Eastern Ukraine.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

parallel is going to deliver a convective screaming NE flow.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Don said:

Not cold for southern Britain!

I'm more concerned about the millions of people with no means of warmth  

 

[Don]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

I'm more concerned about the millions of people with no means of warmth  

 

Yes of course, just an additional observation!

[Tim Bland]

GFS(p) delivers the goods, just look at the depth and size of cold over Europe ! 

[Don]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

GFS(p) delivers the goods, just look at the depth and size of cold over Europe ! 

Theoretically the parallel should be more accurate?

[jimben]

Love how so many get sucked in by the pub-run time after time, year after year. 

[Don]

Just now, jimben said:

Love how so many get sucked in by the pub-run time after time, year after year. 

Especially on a Friday evening!  Just a bit of fun and model watching is interesting currently, no matter what the eventual reality is!

[Tim Bland]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

parallel is going to deliver a convective screaming NE flow.

Yep ! Quite an amazing run or scary if you’re in Ukraine or struggling with your heating bill! 

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, jimben said:

Love how so many get sucked in by the pub-run time after time, year after year. 

Traditionally its always the most extreme of any run/output of the day, swings from one extreme to another.

A note on the GFS parallel, not a ramp but it screams Dec 09 and 10 to me!

[Rain All Night]

13 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Traditionally its always the most extreme of any run/output of the day, swings from one extreme to another.

A note on the GFS parallel, not a ramp but it screams Dec 09 and 10 to me!

Is there a reason why the run at 18z each day would be less reliable than the others?

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Is there a reason why the run at 18z each day would be less reliable than the others?

Last time I checked 06z was least reliable as there’s less flight data at that time of the morning. Not sure which is verifying best at the mine (anyone have the link?) but there’s not much in it I expect 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Is there a reason why the run at 18z each day would be less reliable than the others?

There was some stuff somewhere that less data is input on 06z and 18z but many have also said that the difference isn’t likely to make a notable difference. We just joke about the pub run but I’m not sure that it’s any more than anecdotal that it delivers dodgy runs 

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Is there a reason why the run at 18z each day would be less reliable than the others?

No.  It isn’t.  You can see the verification stats for the 4 runs, and any differences between them are not statistically significant.   Look at any given time and one run or other might appear to be a few points better or worse but it really is in the noise.  Currently:

Link:

GFS Verification: G2G GFS 4 Cycles (ACC)

WWW.EMC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Great run from the // tonight to go with the ECM from earlier.

Edited November 25, 2022 by Mike Poole

[tight isobar]

18z London ones... belly flopping.....,to add you intergtate all suites- and support.. input data.. is an interpretation of exploration “OF ALL”.. the cold is coming.. now we watch/ decipher- to the degree of?!!!

[saintkip]

41 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm more concerned about the millions of people with no means of warmth  

 

Does this mean we don’t want cold now? If it does  I’m not sure we can do anything about it.

[Downburst]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

There was some stuff somewhere that less data is input on 06z and 18z but many have also said that the difference isn’t likely to make a notable difference. We just joke about the pub run but I’m not sure that it’s any more than anecdotal that it delivers dodgy runs 

I checked this out today and I couldn’t find much recent evidence to suggest it’s worse. However, in the past, 10 years ago, it had more data than the 12z. But being a uk site on net weather it wasn’t possible to explain the Americans had added extra land based data to the zulu time 18z, their approx midday.  But I’ve long given up on scientific approach to this forum and fully understand the likes of the guy from Surrey gets as much weight on the internet as anyone else, especially on this site. Full moon and werewolves and the like. Freezing cold end of next month. Snowed under for months. 320hrs on the gfs, have a look at this. Ignore the met office. I’m on the dole so have plenty of time to post CFS charts. The good news is science marches on and we’ll make breakthroughs in mathematics to advance NWP sooner rather than later

[Cold Winter Night]

In the De Bilt plume (EPS 12z) the different scenarios from the clusters are visible:

A bifurcation on December 1 with
-Scenario A: The High does not quite push out the Atlantic far enough East, with milder Temps as a result.
-Scenario B: The High pushes West and produces a slack Easterly with a cold flow, but not extreme.

Then another bifurcation around December 6 with
-Scenario C : The High gains strength, retrogresses and brings a colder airflow from the Northeast with possible ice days in Holland.
-Scenario D : The Atlantic makes a bit more inroads again, introducing (South)Westerlies and raising Temps. This is cluster 1 in the extended 264-360h range.

It will be very interesting which direction this will go the next few days. True cold (and possible snow for the UK) is still far away, not in range of the EC HRES Op yet.

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening guys

here is my round up(briefly) on this evening anom's etc

the 18z gefs mean is pretty rock solid at day ten...

as is the EPS ext'd,...look at all the cold to the mid lat's around the globe

and a look at the CPC,green lines opening up which entail strong ridging around or to the north of the UK with surface easterly(red hatched)

Debuilt is upping the anti with a strong probability of easterly winds to 90%,...how cold,...no one knows yet

this evenings 90% vs yesterday's 80% NEly slightly increasing too

a quick note,...don't view the single op's as gospel,...look for trends in the ens and anom's until we get closer to the time(120-144) tops,...the trends look good in my book