Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean anomaly T240, a paler version of the op as you might expect:

Breaking that down, the clusters T192-T240, well the monster block is cluster 2 which contains the op and 18 members:

All 4 are Scandi block though (red border).

T264:

Here cluster 2 is the further evolution of the monster block, destination Greenland.  Cluster 3 goes for Scandi, cluster 1 more average.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

For any newbies  the important thing to focus on if you see comments that are unnecessarily stressing per new run 

It's little changes but the overall synoptics remain consistent 

• Block to the Northeast (Scandinavia) progresses toward Greenland 
• General direction for the coldpooling to the East and Northeast is toward the UK

GEM 12Z, 

Gfs and its another pair of outputs that need...  

Onto the Ensembles ...

 

Excellent ECM 

From the 0z 

Possibly the 5 star highlight of the 12zs..

 

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM mean anomaly T240, a paler version of the op as you might expect:

Breaking that down, the clusters T192-T240, well the monster block is cluster 2 which contains the op and 18 members:

All 4 are Scandi block though (red border).

T264:

Here cluster 2 is the further evolution of the monster block, destination Greenland.  Cluster 3 goes for Scandi, cluster 1 more average.

My god mike those look fantastic!what a mean as well!just need lower heights in italy!

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM mean anomaly T240, a paler version of the op as you might expect:

Breaking that down, the clusters T192-T240, well the monster block is cluster 2 which contains the op and 18 members:

All 4 are Scandi block though (red border).

T264:

Here cluster 2 is the further evolution of the monster block, destination Greenland.  Cluster 3 goes for Scandi, cluster 1 more average.

My god mike those look fantastic!what a mean as well!just need lower heights in italy!

[John88B]

A complete novice here so excuse me if this is a daft question but what does mogreps have to say about this, why is it rarely mentioned and how often does it update? Cheers.

[TSNWK]

We watched the heatwave that topped 40c reel in from around day 10/11 so why not this..

[The Real Snowman]

1 hour ago, geordiekev said:

Instant red card to the first person who mentions 'breakdown' I'm afraid. Hard not to cherry pick with so many juicy charts to choose from

I quite agree but we know that is what will be happening now. Lets get this in then enjoy it. Then we can 'worry' about the breakdown. First world problem.

[Blessed Weather]

12 minutes ago, John88B said:

A complete novice here so excuse me if this is a daft question but what does mogreps have to say about this, why is it rarely mentioned and how often does it update? Cheers.

You can read info about MOGREPS on the Met Office website here, and you can view the output charts on Netweather here. 

Daily runs:

00z (data starts becoming available from 05:45GMT)
06z (data starts becoming available from 11:40GMT)
12z (data starts becoming available from 17:40GMT)
18z (data starts becoming available from 23:45GMT)

Edited November 25, 2022 by Blessed Weather
Run times added.

[legritter]

Great posts gang,I'm a lurker and enjoying current outlook .Yes let's get the cold in and perhaps with warm sea temperatures we could see some of the white stuff .Net weather Forums its a 10 from me ,no not 10 day charts ,usual sausage baps and Stella's , take care all cheers . 

 

[Cambrian]

The heights transition / bridging from Scandinavia to Greenland being reaffirmed in the modelling for week 2 (192h-384h) on the 12z GEFS mean anomalies. Low height anomalies from the southwest into the UK and Ireland by day 16. Classic battleground synoptics looking to emerge towards the middle of December, with regular reinforcement of the pool of cold air and well below average temperatures throughout shown on the T850 mean anomalies.

 

Miles ahead, so totally speculative, but from there, if the low heights were to carry on with their northeast progress to the Baltic, we might be looking at more of a northerly influence in the run up to Christmas. Or if they were to stall and stay just to the south, we could perhaps be left with a serial cliffhanger in the offing for our pre-Christmas viewing. That’d be some edge of the seat stuff!

Not even a sniff of anything coming out of the Eastern Seaboard, so looking solidly cold and potentially wintry either way. Heading into December, this really is the most interesting range of possibilities for the outlook to mid-month, and leaves us with great potential for a cracking start to winter. 

[iceman1991]

41 minutes ago, legritter said:

Great posts gang,I'm a lurker and enjoying current outlook .Yes let's get the cold in and perhaps with warm sea temperatures we could see some of the white stuff .Net weather Forums its a 10 from me ,no not 10 day charts ,usual sausage baps and Stella's , take care all cheers . 

 

You forgot two things to it pint beer and sitting in front of the log burner can’t go wrong with alll that

[Singularity]

My eyebrows have raised this evening as GFS has produced a rare 'bottom-up' stratospheric polar vortex split via a trough splitting against Greenland & ECM has something similar by Greenland on the same day (next Sat)..

As far as I'm aware, this is what happened in late Nov 2010, so it's worth keeping an eye on future runs for any consistency regarding the trough split against Greenland.

 

[cheeky_monkey]

some record breaking cold beginning to show up on the models here in Western Canada..seeing a few -40c appear in the first week of Dec is pretty remarkable ..in fact the whole of Canada seems to plunge into the freezer.

[Jackski4]

Onto the 18zs! 

[Liam Burge]

39 minutes ago, Singularity said:

My eyebrows have raised this evening as GFS has produced a rare 'bottom-up' stratospheric polar vortex split via a trough splitting against Greenland & ECM has something similar by Greenland on the same day (next Sat)..

As far as I'm aware, this is what happened in late Nov 2010, so it's worth keeping an eye on future runs for any consistency regarding the trough split against Greenland.

 

What does a 'bottom-up' stratospheric polar vortex mean? Sorry for the dumb question.

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

What does a 'bottom-up' stratospheric polar vortex mean? Sorry for the dumb question.

He means that the ‘splitting wave’ begins in the trop and then wells up through the strat ….. 

in contrast, an ssw works for us when it sends downwelling waves from the upper strat down into the trop 

Edited November 25, 2022 by bluearmy

[feb1991blizzard]

 

11 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

What does a 'bottom-up' stratospheric polar vortex mean? Sorry for the dumb question.

it means the splitting of the vortex works its way up from the part of the atmosphere near the surface into the stratosphere as opposed to a top down one which starts at the top of the strat (around  150000 - 170000 ft)  and works downwards to the lower levels.

Edited November 25, 2022 by feb1991blizzard

[sheikhy]

Well theres the embarrassing backtrack from gfs at only 114 hours!!so poor man!!

[Jackski4]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Well theres the embarrassing backtrack from gfs at only 114 hours!!so poor man!!

Good or bad?

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

Good or bad?

Very good!!scandi high further west and looks like ecm and ukmo!!atrocious from this model!!

[Ali1977]

Day 6 and the Atlantic hits the wall, could be a cold upgrade here - possibly before day 10 seeing the colder uppers 

[sheikhy]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Day 6 and the Atlantic hits the wall, could be a cold upgrade here - possibly before day 10 seeing the colder uppers 

Main thing is its moved towards the ecm and ukmo!!!phew!!!lets see if it still manages to wreck things from here!!

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Main thing is its moved towards the ecm and ukmo!!!phew!!!lets see if it still manages to wreck things from here!!

Something like this maybe, the little bit of PV should help lower height further in the Med.

[TSNWK]

Mild air via the back door showing its hand. Can the beast from the east squeeze it out..

[Ice Day]

Well at 174 the NH profile is an absolute mess.

NB.  That is a good thing, if you like cold

[Ali1977]

Taking shape at day 8, cold looks inbound to add some potency to the already established easterly feed.