Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[Kasim Awan]

Incoming PV drop - this is gaining momentum now. Cool and dry is how many cold spells start. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Incoming PV drop - this is gaining momentum now. Cool and dry is how many cold spells start. 

Going to be excellent from day 10 onwards!hahaha

[Ali1977]

Wow , 

[sheikhy]

Yeh looks like ecm could be the outlier early on in terms of how far west the scandi high gets unfortunately!!!so this easterly now looks like it wont produce even a bit of interest not that there was anything significant in it anyway but it looked a bit more interesting 36 hours ago!ah well!!over to the 12zs!

[mountain shadow]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Wow , 

Now you're talking. None of this Scrussian high nonsense. 

Let's get a proper Greenie high and a December 2010esk Northerly.

[MP-R]

My slightly amateur thoughts on any initial easterly influence based on recent and current output, is that we may end up with a December 2002 style easterly. Temps in the 2-6C range by day and 0-3C range by night, or just below zero. 
 

Not necessarily a bad way to cool things down ahead of any jackpot, but likewise, there’s always a route back to mild if low heights stay to SW of the UK.

[LightningLover]

Synoptically, it's stunning... Then I look at the 850's and it's a bit... hmm!

[GSP]

It feels like we are not there yet in terms of knowing what will happen next week and beyond with small but important changes occurring.

Slack with foggy conditions then small attacks from the east then north, with a southerly component not too far away also.

Interesting runs with a bit of everything. Just how will this pan out!

Edited November 26, 2022 by GSP

[Eagle Eye]

I'm sorry for anyone who finds my posts (if there's anyone) interesting here just feeling a bit overwhelmed at the moment. Will still do my weekly document write-ups but probably won't post here much as I can't really keep up as we go into the best chance we've arguably had for a while in early Winter. Sorry that this is off topic mods just wanted to let  the 0 people interested. I don't wish to sound egotistical, after all I'm not that well versed in meteorology it's just some people seem to find my posts interesting I guess. It's sort of a half goodbye for now, don't know when I'll be back to my normal mental state though. If I still feel overwhelmed throughout Winter, good luck to everyone. Of course, I may feel better next week I just don't know.

Anyway, my thoughts for now is that if this does happen, it'll be fairly decent away from lowland areas, depending on the exact direction I suppose that North Sea snow showers can occur but whether this will be cold enough to properly cool this coasts remains unknown. I think the main benefit of this is that it could bring snow to areas away from the usual early Winter areas but again, that still remain unknown. I'm not willing to commit to anything really as of yet but the AAM forecasts suggest that we'll see a gradual weakening of the Nino Atmospheric state into next week and lag correlations would suggest the second week of December or sometime around then to be the transition period before a re-entry into the Nino state and so mid to late December, interest may arise again but it's too far away for anything solid.

[damianslaw]

Taking a step back and looking at the wider picture, the northern hemisphere looking very different to how most winters commence, PV in two parts, importantly the largest chunk is set to settle over the N Asian side - and all the forcing will come from that, hence I can see an easy path for heights to ridge to Greenland in time. It makes sense to see anomalies longer term showing high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south. 

In the reliable, a slow transition to something cooler and drier over the coming week, the turning point still looks to be the week commencing 5 Dec, still some time off. 

A very interesting and different start to winter than most since 2010 I think. 2012 and 2017 brought  a cold start but the blocking was weaker than what is forecast.

I'll not be able to post for a couple of days, but will keeping an eye on the models and forum.

[E17boy]

Morning peeps,

A fine start here in Walthamstow NE London. However as we go through the day cloud is expected to increase with rain reaching here after dark from the front coming in from the west. 
 

Looks as if as we go through the coming week things will look drier and we will possibly looking at some mist and fog as well as grey skys. Also temperatures dropping thanks to a more continental feed.

What happens after this is still all for grabs. Nothing is resolved and I myself don’t see anything to convince me yet as to what side I should take mild or cold from the east. I think we are at a stage now that as we go through the coming days the pattern will either retrogress and then drop back to where we started, or there will be something worthwhile building for us coldies,  A lot of speculation at the moment, a lot of if’s and but’s to be resolved. It’s just a matter of seeing now if our express will be an arctic one or a mild one. 
 

I really hope that after some of the exciting F1 charts seen this week all does not crumble in front of us . Even if this worst case scenario does happen what we got to remember is that we are not even in winter yet until a weeks time, we have still got a long journey ahead.

hope you all have a great Saturday

THE SEARCH FOR WINTER IS STILL ON BALANCE 

regards

[IDO]

The para misses the trigger low that we saw in the 0z:

So, a delay for any potential northerly, and less cooler with that cut-off low to the SW in the interlude. The overall pattern similar to the mean with the tPV from Asia sinking into Europe, so by D12:

Both runs variation on an expansive theme so expect chopping and changing, with timings, intensity of northerly and longevity of easterly/SE'ly.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Synoptically, it's stunning... Then I look at the 850's and it's a bit... hmm!

As long as the Greenland high holds that Canadian troughing at bay the uppers will be good by the end of the run.

[Mike Poole]

GFS stunning at T264:

GFS // a little behind the curve, takes to T300 to get to broadly the same position:

These runs following on from the idea which was apparent in the ECM clusters - that the block will home in on Greenland post 10 days.  Good consistency on this now this morning, let’s see what the 12z’s bring.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Tim Bland]

Another beauty of a run from GFS(p)

[Methuselah]

Not too bad, though, given the warm seas, we might have to forego lowland snow in favour of coastal lightning?

    

[Uncertainty]

 

Greenland has fallen!

[Tim Bland]

Ooosh .. 

 

Edited November 26, 2022 by Tim Bland

[Kasim Awan]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Not too bad, though, given the warm seas, we might have to forego lowland snow in favour of coastal lightning?

    

Light showers snow below 480m

Heavy showers snow below 270m

Evap cooling system 160m

On that frame

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Light showers snow below 480m

Heavy showers snow below 270m

Evap cooling system 160m

On that frame

Jeeze.  What on earth will we need for powder at sea level in the south east

[damianslaw]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Not too bad, though, given the warm seas, we might have to forego lowland snow in favour of coastal lightning?

    

A probable and likely evolution - eventual destination look north/north east not east, as said the forcing is coming from the NE, that low to the SW will just fizzle and retract against such a force, initially it may have the effect of preventing a colder easterly, but the longer rewards are better for those of a cold snow persuasion - and GFS is king when it comes to blocking to our NW.. there I've said it. Have a good weekend all!

[blizzard81]

Oh my days

[mountain shadow]

6 minutes ago, Josh S said:

 

Greenland has fallen!

Not sure if we've seen a Greenland black hole anomaly like that since mid December 2010.

[Mike Poole]

GFS // goes full tonto by the end of the run…

Now THAT is a Greenland high!  

From looking at the runs this morning and the clusters, the jackpot scenario in 2 weeks - this, or close to it, is probably running at about 25% probability.  That’s going off 12 members on EPS cluster 3, the GFS // nailing it, and GFS pretty close too.  (Most of the other 75% maintains northern blocking too.). 

In the game like I literally can’t remember!  (2010 was before I started model watching.)

[Kasim Awan]

11 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Jeeze.  What on earth will we need for powder at sea level in the south east

-11.7