Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[BlueHedgehog074]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Strong scandi highs by day 9 and 10 on both gfs op and parallel!

A verrrrry big king-sized High, too! 
 

 

I do agree though it is a nice looking Northern Hemisphere profile. 

[Kasim Awan]

GEM 

[Frostbite80]

Only one way that high is going after day 10.....SE as there is too much energy going over the top unfortunately.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[minus10]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Stonking NH profile and split surface flow - pv is wrecked & stunning easterly momentum - unfortunate stubborn heights to SW not helping the cause tho

Those heights to sw perhaps reinforcing the easterly..??

[TSNWK]

17 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Very strong Azores presence appearing - not a favourable development.

Think we will be OK on this run.. AZ ridges in over us a previous run.  Tasty scandi high setting around day 9

[Ali1977]

Just now, Frostbite80 said:

Only one way that high is going after day 10.....SE as there is too much energy going over the top unfortunately.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not so sure, the PV is heading over to eastern Russia, it’s not putting pressure on the Scandy high 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, minus10 said:

Those heights to sw perhaps reinforcing the easterly..??

We would rather more energy be sent under

Helps to lower heights over southern uk - far more north sea fun and prevents flattening over the top.

[Frostbite80]

PV certainly isnt happy 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Frostbite80 said:

PV certainly isnt happy 

 

Nope. Looking at the charts you can almost hear its death rattle.

It’s what you get when you have a strengthening zonal flow against semi permanent HP to the E.

Edited November 21, 2022 by CreweCold

[minus10]

Could be worse..

[phil nw.]

7 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

A verrrrry big king-sized High, too! 
 

 

I do agree though it is a nice looking Northern Hemisphere profile. 

Yes see all that warm air advection heading north pumping up the High.

Sometimes the Azores high is the starter for a pattern change.1947 a good example.

[Nick F]

Not exactly Beast From The East on the 12z GFS, but it's a start ...

Certainly bodes a seasonal feel to the start of December and the run up to crimbo.

Difference of the 12z GFS to the 06z, the Scandi high becomes more dominant rather than the Azores high - which means more potential for undercut from the Atlantic.

 

[Frostbite80]

Are the lows going to slide....

Need pressure to fall in SE Europe 

Edited November 21, 2022 by Frostbite80

[tight isobar]

This is IMO mirror -reflecting formats.. And a classic NH rounding MT , switch the Synoptics to opposing outs!.. ie height and vortex formation into opposite current syncs... I hope- And highly suspect I’ll be able to Elaborate  on this preety soon!current momentum is not being aligned via modelling!!!

Edited November 21, 2022 by tight isobar

[Ali1977]

Well the GEM most definitely has some cold air sitting to our East - things are getting much more positive come on ECM 

[geordiekev]

2 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Could be worse..

Always wary of relying on these cut off lows to prop up the Highs. Time & time again, they were shown last December at about D5/6 yet they never came to fruition, changing the promise of honey to gruel.

For that reason I'm being more wary of all models beyond the t120 range this season 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Advection starting through Iceland by 288. Great run.

[tight isobar]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Advection starting through Iceland by 288. Great run.

The notion will I’m sure be on.. MLB/HLB via the Greenland highway!-

[phil nw.]

High pressure building around W.Europe/Scandinavia seems the trend now.

Just a matter of getting the high far enough north to draw the cold in.

If nothing else it will be good to see the Atlantic held at bay so we can dry out.

[Met4Cast]

5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

This is IMO mirror -reflecting formats.. And a classic NH rounding MT , switch the Synoptics to opposing outs!.. ie height and vortex formation into opposite current syncs... I hope- And highly suspect I’ll be able to Elaborate  on this preety soon!current momentum is not being aligned via modelling!!!

What?

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

What?

This !!

[minus10]

Nice train of cold flowing from the east..

[Cheshire Freeze]

The beauty of the GFS 12z run is that there’s continued pressure on the strat through FI

[minus10]

Link up of the 2 hps..??

[Maz]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

This !!

Greenland low -> Greenland High as the Polar vortex starts to switch to the Asian side of the pole.  Allowing a scandi trough to replace the scandi high and so we get a northerly.  Well that is one possible route anyway.