Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[iceman1991]

20 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Calm, cold and frosty under a holding pattern of sorts...there is some insane cold around the NH for so early in the season

Are the models firming up on cold dry spell as to a snowy one then crewe ? 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, iceman1991 said:

Are the models firming up on cold dry spell as to a snowy one then crewe ? 

Looks that way initially.

We may have to wait for another push of amplification to tip the scales towards winter proper as the modelling has errantly been suggesting that the vortex would relocate over the Siberian side...the modelling this morning is suggesting the opposite with just a tad too much energy in the jet. 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Looks that way initially.

We may have to wait for another push of amplification to tip the scales towards winter proper as the modelling has errantly been suggesting that the vortex would relocate over the Siberian side...the modelling this morning is suggesting the opposite with just a tad too much energy in the jet. 

Yes, a little disappointed with both the GFS and // this morning, for exactly that reason.  Still, it is way out in FI.

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, a little disappointed with both the GFS and // this morning, for exactly that reason.  Still, it is way out in FI.

Looks to me like we'll get at least one more displacement attempt as we enter December and another attempt at driving a ridge that will hold far enough N for long enough.

GFS is going to have a go right at the end of the run

Edited November 22, 2022 by CreweCold

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Looks to me like we'll get at least one more displacement attempt as we enter December and another attempt at driving a ridge that will hold far enough N for long enough.

was quite a good gfs run i thought with a easterly setting in quite early,am i correct on this?

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

was quite a good gfs run i thought with a easterly setting in quite early,am i correct on this?

It started off well but it's nowhere near as good as the runs we've seen recently. 

[iceman1991]

19 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Looks that way initially.

We may have to wait for another push of amplification to tip the scales towards winter proper as the modelling has errantly been suggesting that the vortex would relocate over the Siberian side...the modelling this morning is suggesting the opposite with just a tad too much energy in the jet. 

Thanks Crewe

[Kasim Awan]

Concerning for coldies to see this being modelled by the GEM, which is usually bullish about weakening the jet when blocking is involved.

[Mark Smithy]

We have operational yo-yo's past T240 from the GFS at the moment. It's constantly changing. Clearly it is having a struggle with whether any blocking will hold and, if so, where and how. For example, this was the pretty awful 18z, which was way out on the milder side and predominantly zonal for the UK:

But now we're back to the colder scenario with the 0z.

For what it's worth, this chart looks highly improbable:

There's no such thing as a high pressure cell extending from Cape Verde up through the Azores, across the British isles, through Scandinavia and up to the Barents Sea and into the Arctic Ocean. I mean, literally a ridiculous chart. 

All eyes on the ECM ...

Edited November 22, 2022 by Mark Smithy

[Mark Smithy]

53 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

Are the models firming up on cold dry spell as to a snowy one then crewe ? 

In a word, no.

[Mark Smithy]

6 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

The Op seems to have thrown any blocking in the bin - strange but I imagine it’s a wobble!! 
Day 11 below

The thing is, the ensembles have shown huge scatter and most of the FI operational GFS runs have been way out on a limb, occasionally even outliers.

It bears repeating that any charts beyond T240 (and more likely T168) are best treated as elevator music. Background noise, vaguely comforting, but not something you would sit down in a concert for.

Edited November 22, 2022 by Mark Smithy

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ecm looking pretty poor early on,no amplification

[Kasim Awan]

I like the angles of momentum in the Atlantic at 192 on the ECM 00z run.

[Kasim Awan]

ECM manages to slide the low se

[IDO]

A few days ago, the models had a flatter upstream, allowing the tPV to drain mostly to Asia. Those algorithms may have been with respect to historical background signals, but now it is showing a more amplified Pacific:

GFS 0z mean, 0-192: 

We are back to sister vortex's and more energy in the Canadian arm versus previous runs. That initial spike in height rises later this week is smacked down by the associated trough from the upstream wave. So we need a further push of higher heights in our sector for a second shot post D8. As we have seen, even if we see the models showing this (in FI), their propensity to misread expected solutions, compared to the current undercurrent drivers means they are subject to high unreliability. In any case, FI is of very low confidence with high scatter (a running theme of late).

My take; a Pacific ridge is not going to work for us if that is the driver this winter.

Edited November 22, 2022 by IDO

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

A few days ago, the models had a flatter upstream, allowing the tPV to drain mostly to Asia. Those algorithms may have been with respect to historical background signals, but now it is showing a more amplified Pacific:

GFS 0z, 0-192: 

We are back to sister vortex's and more energy in the Canadian arm versus previous runs. That initial spike in height rises later this week is smacked down by the associated trough from the upstream wave. So we need a further push of higher heights in our sector for a second shot post D8. As we have seen, even if we see the models showing this (in FI), their propensity to misread expected solutions, compared to the current undercurrent drivers means they are subject to high unreliability. In any case, FI is of very low confidence with high scatter (a running theme of late).

My take; a Pacific ridge is not going to work for us if that is the driver this winter.

Somerbing post. But thank you. Looks like we heading back to square 1 and repeating ebbs and flows of the vortex at a macro level with  at best fleeting chilly spells for us...

[sheikhy]

Very good gfs early on!!ecm massive improvement!!on to the 06z and then 12zs!!still raining here by the way!!been 24 hours of non stop rain!!

[Uncertainty]

24 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Ecm looking pretty poor early on,no amplification

 

ECM takes three attempts to successfully get there, but support for the giant Azores-Scandi-Ural link up has grown this morning. 
 

The GEFS now has a mean easterly at 360(!)

 

Anomaly

Given the very strong strat forecast from the ec46, I would personally rather we ended up with a long lasting Ural /Scandi feature rather than an -NAO / Scandi trough. The latter would give us an early shot at cool/cold but the former might keep the SPV in check or even set it up for the knockout blow in late December. If the week 2 easterly sets up right we could get cold from the east but the orientation would have to be quite precise. GFS and ECM both have a euro trough but there is  too much pressure from the Atlantic. @IDOhas highlighted why this could be the case. If, like me, you don’t want the high to retrogress away from the NE. That’s potentially  a good thing, as long as the Atlantic energy is not so strong that it blows the whole lot away. The GEFS have really moved away from that latter option.
 

As Marco has noted, the clear East-based rooting to La Niña correlates strongly with Jan/Feb -NAO. If we chuck in a New Year split, then the the game’s afoot for the mid-winter period.

Here’s to the long game. If you were after a stonking Greenland block day 9-15 then you’re going to be disappointed this morning. If you want Anthony Masiello’s (the closest thing to a sage you will find on Twitter) winter prediction (late Dec split SPV) to come true, then  join me and root for the Ural block.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

D7 GFS is excellent

That looks really Strat reversaly within 25 days.

[That ECM]

Still much interest for me moving into next month.

[Ladyofthestorm]

Definitely a long game on this one for cold lovers. Still very strong signals for settling down beginning of December. What happens after that is anyone's guess.  The scenario of that high pressure over Atlantic ridging up to Greenland and letting the Nly gates open is plausible like we saw in the GFS yesterday. Watch for that scenario returning at 240hrs! 

 

It's done it before. 

 

 

[Chesil View]

26 minutes ago, Josh S said:

 

ECM takes three attempts to successfully get there, but support for the giant Azores-Scandi-Ural link up has grown this morning. 
 

The GEFS now has a mean easterly at 360(!)

 

Anomaly

Given the very strong strat forecast from the ec46, I would personally rather we ended up with a long lasting Ural /Scandi feature rather than an -NAO / Scandi trough. The latter would give us an early shot at cool/cold but the former might keep the SPV in check or even set it up for the knockout blow in late December. If the week 2 easterly sets up right we could get cold from the east but the orientation would have to be quite precise. GFS and ECM both have a euro trough but there is  too much pressure from the Atlantic. @IDOhas highlighted why this could be the case. If, like me, you don’t want the high to retrogress away from the NE. That’s potentially  a good thing, as long as the Atlantic energy is not so strong that it blows the whole lot away. The GEFS have really moved away from that latter option.
 

As Marco has noted, the clear East-based rooting to La Niña correlates strongly with Jan/Feb -NAO. If we chuck in a New Year split, then the the game’s afoot for the mid-winter period.

Here’s to the long game. If you were after a stonking Greenland block day 9-15 then you’re going to be disappointed this morning. If you want Anthony Masiello’s (the closest thing to a sage you will find on Twitter) winter prediction (late Dec split SPV) to come true, then  join me and root for the Ural block.

Indeed Josh You nearly always have to play the long game winterwise UK especially so the further south you live. Pre xmas cold and snow  like 2009 and 2010 are rare beasts.

[blizzard81]

Ecm op is disappointing this morning. As IDO mentioned earlier with regards GFS, the same Pacific ridging appears that will do us no good going forwards. The tpv stays relatively strong towards Greenland as a result and too much energy in the northern arm. At least it should dry up a bit though. A backwards step from the ecm op though this morning with regards to anything meaningfully cold. 

Edited November 22, 2022 by blizzard81

[ICE COLD]

18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That looks really Strat reversaly within 25 days.

UKMO not to shabby either at T168 . 

[feb1991blizzard]

still saying mid winter our best chance this year - xmas & jan.