Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[sheikhy]

Well well probably best run of the lot so far!!ukmo looking okay at 144 hours aswell!!!

[Liam Burge]

Can almost see the run cheering the easterlies on!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Excellent GFS. That is all.

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

It's a good run.  But the uppers are a bit meh over us and Europe..  chilly though ..

Give it time!  Looks a cracker to me!  Heights into Greenland / Iceland area by T204:

After this morning’s runs, good to see this at the semi-reliable.

[Cold Winter Night]

The Low that managed to sneak into Europe across the North Sea at 150-180h may do us great favours in FI, propping up the Scandi High.

This would be an excellent development.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

It's a good run.  But the uppers are a bit meh over us and Europe..  chilly though ..

look at the hemispheric pattern though - different superlatives for different times of year - for instance if it was showing at 200hrs on the 12z on feb 27th then stonker would be inappropriate language.

[TSNWK]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Give it time!  Looks a cracker to me!  Heights into Greenland / Iceland area by T204:

After this morning’s runs, good to see this at the semi-reliable.

Oh I do agree it's a defo upgrade on previous runs. Off note is that you see the positive changes around day with heights ridiging towards  

[cold snap]

Sleet at best so far from 12z GFS.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, cold snap said:

Sleet at best so far from 12z GFS.

Believe you me, I’d take sleet all day long over 11c and torrential rain

[Nick F]

12z GFS is an improvement - as it doesn't have the Azores High muscling in at the critical point when the trough sinks south down the North Sea and opens up the cold floodgates from the northeast.

Instead the Azores heights build north to the west toward Greenland rather than NE towards the UK.

All to do with modelling the jet stream differently over the Atlantic and northern Europe. Stronger omega poleward ridge developing out west on the 12z compared to 06z

06z                                                              12z

Edited November 22, 2022 by Nick F

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Believe you me, I’d take sleet all day long over 11c and torrential rain

what about torrential sleet? 

[Methuselah]

Mein Gott, that's the vilest Day 10 prediction I've seen for eons: One heavy rain shower after another at 5 or 6C! The high point being, a significant chance of thunder!

    

And, knowing my bloody luck, this'll be the one Day 10 chart ever that verifies!

Edited November 22, 2022 by Ed Stone

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

GEM couldn't be further apart from the GFS.

[Hoghtonwhite]

So on paper, the 12z looks brilliant. However, what it produces isn’t anything special (yet). A very strange synoptic. 
 

Normally when we’d see something like this is in December, you would expect to be seeing snow being pounded into the east coast.

Hmm.

[Rain All Night]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Mein Gott, that the vilest Day 10 prediction I've seen for eons: One heavy rain shower after another at 5 or 6C! The high point being, a significant chance of thunder!

    

And, knowing my bloody luck, this'll be the one Day 10 chart ever that verifies!

Schoolboy question, what do you see here that tells you there would be a succession of heavy showers in this setup?

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

GEM couldn't be further apart from the GFS.

Fine detail maybe but overall  not so different. 

[Methuselah]

Just now, RainAllNight said:

Schoolboy question, what do you see here that tells you there would be a succession of heavy showers in this setup?

I suppose I'm guessing a bit; but, from experience, T850s between -4 and -6C generally equate (at least around here in the early part of the season) to ground temps between +4 and +6C... the warmth in the North Sea provides the oomph for the build-up of cumulonimbus clouds? All Day 10 caveats apply!

[minus10]

Not too keen on this as warmer 850s entering via backdoor...

....still, just another variation in the 'blocking' theme...

 

 

 

Edited November 22, 2022 by minus10

[minus 9]

2 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Not too keen on this as warmer 850s entering via backdoor...

....still, just another variation in the 'blocking' theme...

 

 

 

I wouldn't worry to much it will look completely different on the next run

[swfc]

If you looked at the 12z gfs on the nhp you would say it's fantastic synoptics wise, which it's not far off. Looking at the 850s tho you  would be really surprised,. Troops needed from the Nne ASAP. All for fun but I'd bank that op run all day

Edited November 22, 2022 by swfc

[booferking]

GFS Op & Para modeling the pv rather differently late on i know which one I'd rather have.

[Mike Poole]

GFS 12z finishes with this vortex ripper:

And the strat is getting some stick too:

With evolutions like this unfolding from a favourable position around day 8-9, there is a lot of interest in this blocked setup.  

[minus10]

Yes, pretty good chart synoptically , with vortex split with majority  to the ne, the azores high gone and good blocking up through Greenland across the pole...well, thats the tenplate anyway...

Edited November 22, 2022 by minus10

[Methuselah]

Well, I always like to start the season with at least a modicum of level-headedness... But, alas, the 12Z operational at T+384 has finally done for that idea: now it's time to look north; to remember all those wonderful Moomin Troll stories!

    

[Day 10]

Nice to now see we are at this stage on page 1 of the run, nice setup as we creep toward Winter, certainly not to be sniffed at.

Leading to this later on.....

Anyone complaining needs to give their head a wobble.