Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Thank you, I've focused mainly on the weather learning for the past 2 years and in recent weeks have been forcing myself to read 1 high level document per week and then discuss it on here and hopefully it's starting to pay off as I'm pretty much the forecaster for my school so people will get very annoyed if I get something wrong .

you should skip school and walk into the met

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

you should skip school and walk into the met

Aye, Kasim, he's a bright lad?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I said a couple of weeks back that I sensed a pattern change to something more blocked...partly due to a few rogue ensembles that were pointing us in that direction! These members are starting to grow and this theme looks to become a little more solid. I don't expect any pats on the back or we'll done matt for this as I know I'm a true professional who at times even gives advice to the met office...... now just give me a few seconds to pinch myself out of this dream I'm stuck in.

Joking aside lads and lasses I do feel we have a slow burner to cold about to develop over the coming few weeks.. surface cold could well begin  to build with perhaps a more gradual descent into Winter come mid month.

I've got such a feeling that the vortex is gonna struggle to get its act together this Winter and may well be moved from its perch and knocked out at some point!

It's early days but perhaps we finally have something potentially very exciting this time around!

Rally the troops and get ya war paint on folks...its gonna be a blast.

[Uncertainty]

14 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Thank you, I've focused mainly on the weather learning for the past 2 years and in recent weeks have been forcing myself to read 1 high level document per week and then discuss it on here and hopefully it's starting to pay off as I'm pretty much the forecaster for my school so people will get very annoyed if I get something wrong .

You’re doing a brilliant job pal. So many great articles on Google scholar I would recommend to you and anyone else interested. Have you read the research on the impact of East Pacific Ninas on the mid winter NAO?

Google Scholar

SCHOLAR.GOOGLE.COM

This article, a tad beyond my pay grade, suggests that low sea ice concentration in the Barents-Kara region is a good predictor of a wintertime -NAO. Judah C signposted me into this research.

Google Scholar

SCHOLAR.GOOGLE.COM

Regarding this winter. I’m fairly confident on the east based Nina classification

I’d like to get the thoughts from the sea ice folk on the  SIC in that crucial Barents - Kara region this Autumn, am I right in saying they are below average? If so, then both factors support continued interest for cold lovers beyond the upcoming amplification period…

[bluearmy]

35 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

you should skip school and walk into the met

He needs his GCSE’s before his a levels to get his degree 

then he can think about the met! 

skipping school isn’t going to help! (Yeah I know you were tongue in cheek ) 

Edited November 22, 2022 by bluearmy

[Lukesluckybunch]

very good 18z coming up here i think..appears to be even more blocking showing early on!

[sheikhy]

Very messy at 150 hours!not sure whats going to happen with this run!

[sheikhy]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

think it will be even better

My god thats a mess at 162 hours!!seems to have lost the plot!!!lets see buddy......

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

My god thats a mess at 162 hours!!seems to have lost the plot!!!lets see buddy......

Very messy..   I'll take a look at // and see if that's more to a coldies liking 

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Very messy..   I'll take a look at // and see if that's more to a coldies liking 

Messy as well..  

[booferking]

Gfs op & para very similar here in good way i must add.

[sheikhy]

Both runs have little shortwaves conjoining over the uk!!!just makes the runs unrealisitic!!!gone is the clean evolution from before!!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

well this appears to be a much slower route,at 180 we end up with a southerly rather then a northerly!

[Mike Poole]

GFS and // 18z at T192:

Remember the 12z // didn’t really engage with Greenland at this point, so that they both do is positive.  GFS leaves an annoying little low NW of UK.  Let’s see how they go from here.

Edited November 22, 2022 by Mike Poole

[sheikhy]

Such a shame really!considering that the momentum was with us i did expect the 18z to look better at 192 hours but im certain its wrong and shall look better in the morning!!would av been a good send off to bed lol but it is what it is!!

[Eagle Eye]

I find the 18Z very unlikely overall just with how the low's interact but that may be my bias coming in, if the 0Z and 6Z are back to normal, we can pretty much say that it's an outlier but for now it is what the models are showing.

Positives are that is reaffirms the blocking and WAA just a little later so it's not all bad especially with the cold air just in the near continent. Still a future -NAO opportunity it just feels a little bit off this run if you know what I mean, as in, it doesn't seem the natural evolution from here.

[Cloud 10]

Quite rare to see heights around the Svalbard region.

 

Sounds like an awesome place.

 

Svalbard is a Norwegian archipelago between mainland Norway and the North Pole. One of the world’s northernmost inhabited areas, it's known for its rugged, remote terrain of glaciers and frozen tundra sheltering polar bears, Svalbard reindeer and Arctic foxes. The Northern Lights are visible during winter, and summer brings the “midnight sun”

 

[Uncertainty]

The key takeaway from the absolute smorgasbord of solutions for mid-next week —> week 2 is that we’re going somewhere interesting but we’ve got no idea how it is we’re getting there!
 

Both gs op runs find blocking but make a faff of getting there. It might take 2 or 3 bites of the cherry.

Also, no obvious route to snow in the forecast at present…

[Eagle Eye]

I tell you what, there are quite a few members going for that -NAO.

I think the best chance for the foreseeable future is almost definitely to do with that WAA associated pattern flip, that may block out the Atlantic with a Greenland high and that's where the -NAO comes from.

Beyond that and we may keep getting more opportunities as the MJO looks to be cycling back round and eventually that could go back to phases 6 and 7 again and so we get that associated Nino AAM which brings forth the -NAO increased chances.

Even then, the increased Eddy Heat Flux associated with vertically propagating waves and a SSW is still not off the cards.

I don't think it'll be boring model watching.

 

Edited November 22, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Gfs P definitely a better run with a much bigger 528 dam pool 

12z  

18z  

1 minute ago, Josh S said:

Both gs op runs find blocking but make a faff of getting there. It might take 2 or 3 bites of the cherry.

Yeah putting the standard struggles with the way the block looks from run to run aside, that severe cold pooling really is mental might be a bit of a more premium dessert than a mere cherry 

[Mike Poole]

GFS having another go right at the end - I guess with this setup, if it is messy first time, there’s a good chance of another bite at the cherry, time seems on our side.  Oh, and the strat is showing a decent warming, it’s all happening…

Edited November 22, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

GFS having another go right at the end - I guess with this setup, if it is messy first time, there’s a good chance at another bite at the cherry, time seems on our side.  Oh, and the strat is showing a decent warming, it’s all happening…

Time is most definitely on our side, slow moving MJO phase 6/7 and it's associated lag correlations and then recycling back probably by mid December. The associated Nino AAM is probably going to be quite persistent, you would expect that at some time that pattern flip to at least a part easterly has to come and I'm all for it and I think it may be worth the coldies getting just a little bit excited. We may have to wait a while but there should be plenty of opportunities.

I think if you told coldies that we would enter a La Nina Winter like this, they would bite your hand off for it and this setup has genuine teleconnection backup.

The impacts of climate change can be discussed as the Arctic and surrounding areas (I think) is warming faster than anywhere else but for now I think the thermal gradient is enough for that WAA to occur but where and when is up to the models to decide.

[Snowy L]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Both runs have little shortwaves conjoining over the uk!!!just makes the runs unrealisitic!!!gone is the clean evolution from before!!!

Unfortunately I think shortwaves over the UK during winter is very realistic.

[Cheshire Freeze]

wow

[Allseasons-Si]

Loooong post coming up....

firstly i just wan't to commend everyone that has contributed to this thread today with some really good post's,...the thread has been very fluent and very educational and easy on the eye although it has took me quite a while to read thanks to dry eye syndrome but it doesnt stop me,...i just put more drops in to help me get by

we are so cherished to have some more knowledgable people the likes of @MattH @bluearmy @CreweCold @feb1991blizzard @MATTWOLVES and to name a few i have forgot,...where is @nick sussex?

i am overwelmed today by the 12z models today that has been posted in here but i am still sat on the fence ATM until we see some consistency in the models and at a closer time,...we know the score,but i am slightly encouraged at what i see,...lets have a gander at the latest anoms etc

firstly i present to you the EPs at 240/300 and 360 hrs

500 hp/mslp and temp anom's,...just look at the cut through the NH of +ve heights there in the ext'd with temps coming down on our side of the world,...screams NE'ly to me

gefs and geps(gem) following the same hymne sheet..

NOAA/CPC 8-14 dayer would i think be at day ten so not as ext'd as the other ^^ but the general theme looks to be coming on board wit th green lines(upper flow) opening up with surface(hatched red lines)from a NE quadrant

the 12z gem control cought my eye with this beaut

and finally,...just look at THIS,the De-built ECM ens has significantly upgraded the probabilities on the wind direction coming from the E/NE to 77% from 40% this time yesterday

now my fingers need a rest as they are smoking at the keys ha ha

Ooooh!!!!,...the 18z gefs mean temp is looking freaking good by 300 hrs vs 12z...

 

[Rain All Night]

25 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Unfortunately I think shortwaves over the UK during winter is very realistic.

Would someone mind showing a novice where these shortwaves are to be seen on the GFS 18z charts?