Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[Ali1977]

What’s grabbed me is the FI mean on the GEFS , there’s clearly a shift towards a Greeny high because at 14 days out this mean is pretty impressive.

 

With some impressive Perbs 

Edited November 23, 2022 by Ali1977

[NewEra21]

All being said, these are very nice ensembles as we start December. Just have to hope the op has gone off on one and not spotted the new trend. As we know how fickle looking at ensembles can be sometimes, especially in winter. They flip like a hat!

 

Edited November 23, 2022 by NewEra21

[TSNWK]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

What’s grabbed me is the FI mean on the GEFS , there’s clearly a shift towards a Greeny high because at 14 days out this mean is pretty impressive.

But the mean is not picking up spoilers as we get nearer.. its a blended picture of models that at that time frame are not refined enough to pick up the finer details that can scupper 

[TSNWK]

Ecm day 9.. can I defer to an expert please as I'm really not sure

 

Edited November 23, 2022 by TSNWK

[KTtom]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Ecm day 8.. disappointed 

Thats day 3?

Day 8:

 

Edited November 23, 2022 by KTtom

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, KTtom said:

Thats day 3?

Yep, day 8 itself looks ok to me

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, KTtom said:

Thats day 3?

Yep.. I corrected with day 9 now

[That ECM]

Going into December is still of interest.

[KTtom]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Going into December is still of interest.

If nothing else, its looking lovely and dry...around these parts, we'll take that!

Edited November 23, 2022 by KTtom

[Frigid]

ECM has saved it.. GFS is a horror show. Hopefully a massive outlier and not a trend setter 

Ignoring the OP, many ensembles starting to fall below the mean. 

[sheikhy]

Gfs op is as big an outlier as you get!!!over to the 06z!!

[Eagle Eye]

You don't even have to go that far to see a good setup that could lead to an eventual -NAO. There's nothing to be really negative about here and the potential is still there just being pushed back. Remember that even the 40°C got pushed back by 4 or 5 days depending on where you say that the signal was picked up.

[TSNWK]

17 minutes ago, Frigid said:

ECM has saved it.. GFS is a horror show. Hopefully a massive outlier and not a trend setter 

Ignoring the OP, many ensembles starting to fall below the mean. 

But should we ignore the op? Which is run at a higher resolution then ensembles and therefore logically should be better at picking up spoiler shortwaves that scupper things...

 

[SteveB]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

But should we ignore the op? Which is run at a higher resolution then ensembles and therefore logically should be better at picking up spoiler shortwaves that scupper things...

 

We've been here before many times when viewing charts in the Winter. You should never ignore any chart that is showing a mild solution, as it's the most likely outcome!

[Frigid]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

But should we ignore the op? Which is run at a higher resolution then ensembles and therefore logically should be better at picking up spoiler shortwaves that scupper things...

 

Yeah I don't completely disregard it, only when it throws these extreme runs with no ens support - hot or cold 

[carinthian]

21 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all, just an update regarding the above post. A major cyclonic storm now developing over Northern Italy. Plenty of warm moisture being transported from The Adriatic into the Austrian Alps and a lot of snowfall expected to be generated as the air meets the colder mass on the lee side as of the massive. Snow set in about an hour ago and expected to last 24 hours.  The fine mesh model latest prediction is showing 70cm at 2200m in the region. High winds could cause some instability in the snow mass later today.  Looking at the first week of December, the team over here keep the cold locked in Central Europe with some low night time temps forecast from next weekend.  At the same time strong WAA into NE Atlantic will develop a robust build of pressure across Central Britain.

C

Good morning from a snowy Pongau. Well the snow arrived ,albeit  a bit later than predicted. Current depth this morning in the village around 20cm and 50 cm at 2200m. So a good prediction from the fine mesh snow model. Very windy on the tops with a lot of blowing snow. Snow currently easing. Looking at the latest models, seems to start next week with some agreement as shown below  with a boost to the Azores high and troughing over Northern Britain. Thereafter, many variations going into the longer term. The view over here from our experts is for pressure to build across Central  and Western Britain as next week progresses and for a trough extension into Europe. This should aid some colder air towards the SE particularly. However, models struggle to evaluate the advection of cold across Europe but currently think the increase in 850mb temps shown on the ECM day 10 to be rather extreme. Hope to put some snow pictures on the Austrian  thread  laterfor those interested.

C

[sheikhy]

The chart below can go very wrong very easily!also just to add thats 2 gfs runs in a row now where that spoiler shortwave flattens everything out around our island at 192 hours!!the models will try everything to make this go wrong even by fluke lol!!so we must be wary of that.........

 

Edited November 23, 2022 by sheikhy

[Skullzrulerz]

7 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Def trending colder

It's a good start, however by no means it is guaranteed.

Of course the models will continue to chop and change but hopefully we remain on this cold trend.

Some exciting model watching for the next few days.

I just hope I didn't just jinx it lol

[SLEETY]

Can't believe some  people think the gfs op is correct this morning. 

The run is utter crud, looks completely wrong, and not one ensemble member  supports it by a mile. neither do the other models. 

Nobody would believe it if it was a cold outlier so why because its a mild outlier? 

[Lukesluckybunch]

the gfs control is brilliant,as is the ecm thoughts?..also the ecm mean is great again! gfs could be miles off here

Edited November 23, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192-T240:

All good blocked positions to be in for the first 3, it is the minority cluster 4 (7 members) that seems to show roughly the GFS solution this morning and on last nights 18z.  T264+ majority cluster 1 (37 members) very sound - Greenland block.

Steady as she goes, roll on the 6z!

[sheikhy]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

the gfs control is brilliant,as is the ecm thoughts?

Ecm was like the gfs at 168 hours difference is ecm managed to rescue the situation with that total mess of lows in the atlantic!it could have easily gone the gfs way!im not saying gfs is right cos i my self think its wrong but dont discount it yet!

[That ECM]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM clusters T192-T240:

All good blocked positions to be in for the first 3, it is the minority cluster 4 (7 members) that seems to show roughly the GFS solution this morning and on last nights 18z.  T264+ majority cluster 1 (37 members) very sound - Greenland block.

Steady as she goes, roll on the 6z!

Not with out interest.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm was like the gfs at 168 hours difference is ecm managed to rescue the situation with that total mess of lows in the atlantic!it could have easily gone the gfs way!im not saying gfs is right cos i my self think its wrong but dont discount it yet!

yes agree,thats also two runs in a row now from the gfs! what do you think of the ecm sheikhy?

GEM is a nice run!

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

yes agree,thats also two runs in a row now from the gfs! what do you think of the ecm sheikhy?

GEM is a nice run!

Very good ecm but very risky at 168 hours like gfs!!need the 06z to go back to what coldies wana see or this aint gona go down well!!!but then again some of us will say its only november lol!!!