Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[Cold Winter Night]

GFS 12 z at 144h is very similar to UKMO, and also a good match to this morning's EPS Cluster 1 (that included the control) for those timeframes.

 

[Met4Cast]

Interesting to see the falling AAM begin to increase again, largely down to the MJO cycling into phase 7. 
 

Of note is the continued easterly momentum through the mid-high latitudes, those wanting blocked conditions want to see this continue. 

So what can we be confident about?

Scandi blocking is likely

Decreased Atlantic influence with the SPV shifting away from Greenland (likely temporary) 

Beyond that broad-scale trend, the detail re: UK cold potential remains unresolved & likely will do for some time.

I’d like to see a trend towards increasing CAA moving west across Europe.

 

[Mike Poole]

GFS // very good at T204;

Think there is quite a fine margin to get that yellow finger of WAA up to the Iceland area, so it would be interesting to look through the ensemble suite to see how many go via that route.  

[Methuselah]

And here's the latest Ten-Day Trend... High pressure is coming but where will it sit?

 

[sheikhy]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Similar to GFS..

The something more has never been in the reliable timeframe.

 

Gfs trying to salvage it but the para is much better!!but yeh we defo need this to get down into the reliable!!keep an eye on the shortwaves!!

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS // very good at T204;

Think there is quite a fine margin to get that yellow finger of WAA up to the Iceland area, so it would be interesting to look through the ensemble suite to see how many go via that route.  

Yes.. para is setting up lovely from day 9.   

[NewEra21]

Let's just get the high in first, let things dry out a little and see where we go. Background signals look good, we could be in a far worse position as we enter December. Might just have to go through a boring phase to get to somewhere better.

[Metwatch]

 

Though nothing overly cold, The gfs 12z would bring in a lovely start to the winter does this exact outcome play out. Crisp winter sunshine and frosty misty mornings, who wouldn't love some of that!

 

[Captain Shortwave]

GEM day 7 

UKMO

The block to the east still looks like a good bet and I don’t think unsettled weather is going to occur for week 2. Still there is a difference between a cool/cold easterly with showers and a much milder solution if the Azores high pushes more north east than north.

[booferking]

Gem very blocked splits the Pv day 10.

[TSNWK]

So long as the high is clear and I think it will be as little atlantic muck over the top we can expect crisp winter days and increasing hard frosts if gfs and // land from around day 7

 

[Met4Cast]

4 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

The last two GFS runs highlight why following individual det runs in the extended is a frivolous process. The det on the 00z run was a mild outlier, the det on this mornings 06z run was a cold outlier. Lots of spread in the extended highlighting the uncertainty.

Overall picture moving into early December is one of blocked broad-scale patterns, but whether the UK can tap into proper cold isn't so clear cut within the signals.

Just a reminder about this post from a few hours ago re: individual det runs, lots of variations on the theme & lots of different solutions likely to be presented. 

You wouldn’t put all your eggs on ensemble member 20 each run, so why would you with the det?

[swfc]

29 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs trying to salvage it but the para is much better!!but yeh we defo need this to get down into the reliable!!keep an eye on the shortwaves!!

What's it salvaging?? Its days away

 

[Tony47]

Agreed swfc. Bearing in mind we're still in official Autumn, and after last winter's washout, I'd take what I'm seeing with everything going.

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

What's it salvaging?? Its days away

 

Basically trying to salvage what it was showing at day 10 in previous runs which it tried doing but in the end ended up a uk high instead of a cold easterly!!thats the op!the para was better!!ecm coming up...

[TSNWK]

Both GFS runs are stonkers from day 12 onwards  

[sheikhy]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Both GFS runs are stonkers from day 12 onwards  

Lol whats new my friend!!!!ecm hopefully bring the interest a bit earlier!!!

[TSNWK]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Basically trying to salvage what it was showing at day 10 in previous runs which it tried doing but in the end ended up a uk high instead of a cold easterly!!thats the op!the para was better!!ecm coming up...

The op is brilliant as well from day 12.  Actually colder than the // at 14.. 

Same ole chestnut... and as soon as we get to day 10 I'm sure a higher resolution kicks in and picks up spoilers 

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Lol whats new my friend!!!!ecm hopefully bring the interest a bit earlier!!!

Lovely easterly and dark blues from the east with our name

[Ali1977]

Very nice FI 

[Jamie M]

And the crowd goes wild

[booferking]

Op & Para singing the same hymn sheet I'd eat me hat to be in that position early December. 

[Ice Day]

Afternoon all - good to be back for another winter with the same old faces and lots of new ones.  I've been watching from a distance for a while with nothing really to excite me since the start of November.  However, the forecasted  pattern for early December certainly has some interest.  If nothing else we'll see an end to this incessant rain with some lovely early winter weather, although fog could be an issue.  I think the evolving pattern, albeit not showing the mid/long-term outcome many of us on here crave, is actually not far away given a few tweaks here and there!

Mid December is the first real point of interest for me, but given the recent winters round these parts, my expectations are at an all time low!

Maybe this is the year the bucks the trend!?

[phil nw.]

Just a reminder guys that the real move to the pattern amplifying is from around day 7.

It will take a some days to develop the pattern from there,that's why the really interesting stuff is still beyond the reliable.

So really the trend is still the same.

[Metwatch]

Considering the air sourced isn't that cold in East Europe, the residual cold in the near continent still allows the -10 isotherm to just about reach here. We can only imagine if the 850s were 5-10 degrees colder what we could have.

Unfortunately we need to remember that it's likely a different solution will come up next run.

 

 

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

The op is brilliant as well from day 12.  Actually colder than the // at 14.. 

Same ole chestnut... and as soon as we get to day 10 I'm sure a higher resolution kicks in and picks up spoilers 

Lovely easterly and dark blues from the east with our name

That doesn’t happen anymore.  Since the FV3 upgrade, the GFS maintains high resolution throughout the 16 days of its run.

Both GFS and the // end exceptionally well.  There is possibly a bit of an all roads lead to Rome about this, because, as I mentioned yesterday, we do have a reasonable window of time with favourable drivers.  Hope we can make it count.  

Strat warming looking stronger now on //: