December 2022 C.E.T. and EWP contests _ start of a new contest year

[Summer Sun]

1.9c to the 22nd

2.7c below the 61 to 90 average
2.8c below the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 2.4C -2.9C below average. Rainfall 36.2mm 41.4% of the monthly average.

The steady increase means it looks like dropping out of the top ten coldest for us.

Edited December 23, 2022 by The PIT

[damianslaw]

Easily into the 2s by tomorrow, and only upwards for the rest of the month, quite likely a finish in the low 3s. One of those switcharound months cold 2 weeks cancelled out by mild 2 weeks, and a value not at all representative of how the month panned out. Scotland though may end up with quite a cold deviation, with limited very mild air for the rest of the month looking likely.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 2.5 -2.7C below average. Rainfall 52.1mm 59.5% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

2.1c to the 23rd

2.4c below the 61 to 90 average
2.6c below the 81 to 10 average

[SummerShower]

Since the run of colder winters finished at the start of 2013, we have only had 2 other months in the 3s or below (Feb 18 and Jan 21). This will only be the 3rd such month in nearly 10 years. (I can't see it being 4 or higher now despite the mild outlook as no blowtorch expected).

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

How’s the rainfall looking for the next week and up till now ?

[February1978]

4 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

How’s the rainfall looking for the next week and up till now ?

EWP was 47.3mm to the 22nd, though it will be at least 55-60mm after yesterday's rain

Quite a bit of rain coming, the 28th & 30th could be pretty wet, so 100mm by month end?

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 2.6C -2.5C below average. Rainfall 52.9mm 60.5% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

2.3c to the 24th

2.2c below the 61 to 90 average
2.4c below the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

EWP had reached 56 mm on 24th and may be close to 60 mm now with the most likely outcome around 90-95 mm. Most likely finish for CET around 3.5 C.

[feb1991blizzard]

Got a feeling the EWP might be as high as 115mm.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 2.8C -2.2C below normal. Rainfall 53.7 61.4% of the monthly average

Some very mild days on the latest runs which bring us up to 3.5C so well out of the coldest top ten months we've recorded.  Shows how mild the current spell is really.

[Summer Sun]

2.6c to the 25th

2.0c below the 61 to 90 average
2.1c below the 81 to 10 average

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Got a feeling the EWP might be as high as 115mm.

Could I be in for a double with 3.3c and 119mm ?!

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Could I be in for a double with 3.3c and 119mm ?!

its possible because there's huge bands of rain coming in - assuming your order of entry is higher in the cet than other 3.3's

[Roger J Smith]

prolonged SnowLover is in fact the first of the two entrants at 3.3 (Man with or without Beard the other) and would need a result in the range 115.5 to 122.5 mm to claim top spot in EWP. My forecast is at 112 mm and jonboy is at 124 mm. If only I could get the amount of warmth that we are seeing in terms of rainfall but after today's stalled climb we would probably need five days at record highs to get even as high as 4.5 C. Instead the average for the last five days of December looks to be around 7 C (28th and 31st look quite mild). From around 3C, any given 7 C day will add 0.2, a 10C day would add more like 0.3. The year is saving its spot at the top of the annual temperature list with this mild finish. I think 3.3 is on the table for sure, but it could go even higher. 

As to the higher EWP finish, the guidance has added about 10 mm to what I saw when I estimated in the 90s, so I am not convinced we reach 110 mm, but it could certainly happen and at least 100-105 looks almost guaranteed. Oddly there is a big gap between forecasts at 109 (summer8906) and 98 mm (DCee, Robbie Garrett) with just the recent normals in that gap. So scoring won't be much influenced by where this finishes between 100 and 120 for most of the field. There are only three forecasts above jonboy's 124 mm (126, 135 and 173).

[Roger J Smith]

On 30/11/2022 at 05:18, Don said:

Think you've got that the wrong way round and should be 3.5C?? 

Will post my guesses later but really not sure!

 

See if I listened to you I would be much further ahead ...

[Roger J Smith]

Here's a summary of what happened before very mild Januaries in their order of finish ...

 1. 1916 (7.6) __ Dec 5.3 __ Nov 2.8 __ Oct 9.1

 2. 1921 (7.3) __ Dec 4.2 __ Nov 6.8 __ Oct 10.4

 3. 1796 (7.3) __ Dec 6.6 __ Nov 4.5 __ Oct 11.7

 4. 1834 (7.1) __ Dec 6.9 __ Nov 6.6 __ Oct 10.1

 5. 2007 (7.0) __ Dec 6.4 __ Nov 8.0 __ Oct 12.9

 6. 1733 (6.9) __ Dec 2.2 __ Nov 6.3 __ Oct 10.9

 7. 1975 (6.8) __ Dec 7.9 __ Nov 6.6 __ Oct 7.6

 8. 1983 (6.7) __ Dec 4.1 __ Nov 7.7 __ Oct 9.9

 9. 2008 (6.6) __ Dec 4.9 __ Nov 7.2 __ Oct 10.7

10 1898 (6.6) __ Dec 4.7 __ Nov 7.6 __ Oct 9.9

11 1686 (6.5) __ Dec 6.5 __ Nov 7.0 __ Oct 11.5

12 1990 (6.5) __ Dec 4.7 __ Nov 6.0 __ Oct 11.5

13 1884 (6.4) __ Dec 4.6 __ Nov 5.8 __ Oct 9.7

14 2020 (6.4) __ Dec 5.7 __ Nov 6.2 __ Oct 9.8

15 1736 (6.4) __ Dec 5.4 __ Nov 6.3 __ Oct 10.3

16 1875 (6.4) __ Dec -0.2 _ Nov 5.6 __ Oct 10.4

17 1846 (6.3) __ Dec 4.6 __ Nov 6.7 __ Oct 9.5

18 1932 (6.3) __ Dec 5.3 __ Nov 7.8 __ Oct 8.8

19 1737 (6.2) __ Dec 6.4 __ Nov 6.9 __ Oct 10.4

20 1989 (6.1) __ Dec 7.3 __ Nov 5.0 __ Oct 10.3

avg ___ (6.7) ___ Dec 5.2 __ Nov 6.4 __ Oct 10.3

====================================

Factoring in that many of these very mild Januaries occurred long before the recent warmer climate interval, the signal coming ahead of them is generally somewhat opposite to what we have seen this year, namely, a rather mild December and a relatively cool Oct-Nov. There are of course exceptions, perhaps the last three months of 1732 appear most similar to 2022 out of this set. Not to say that analogue forecasting provides very good results, but it would be unusual for a very mild January to follow a very warm autumn or a cold December, let alone both of them. (only twice was Dec below 4 C, and only once was Nov 8.0 or Oct 12+ although the 1795 and 1685 readings are warm for their eras).

January can of course start out quite mild and turn much colder, as it did in 2012 and 1950 as two examples. Those are by the way among the warmest Januaries on record in eastern North America. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 2.9C -2.1C below average. Rainfall 55.9mm 63.9% of the monthly average

Final figure for us is looking  between 3.3C to 3.8C.

Edited December 27, 2022 by The PIT

[damianslaw]

Despite the running mean by the 18th being the coldest since 2010, not that off a sub zero value, the last 13 days are making there mark felt on the CET, and a finish in the 3s almost a dead cert, and 2008 at 3.5 degrees could be a close match, can see another 1 degree being added by month's send. Still its refreshing to note we can still acheive below average months, and had things panned out slightly different a notably cold December would have been on the cards, we have not been far off, just a couple of things went wrong last minute! - story of UK weather!

 

[SLEETY]

my sub -zero estimate had a chance at one stage until the lows pushed through and back to zonal crud,at least the jet-stream is far enough South to give snow for the Highland1s and the ski resorts.

[Frigid]

6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

my sub -zero estimate had a chance at one stage until the lows pushed through and back to zonal crud,at least the jet-stream is far enough South to give snow for the Highland1s and the ski resorts.

my thoughts exactly with my 1.8C estimate.. thought I was too high at one point 

We had a chance to get an exceptional cold month, yet it didn't happen... again

Edited December 27, 2022 by Frigid

[Summer Sun]

2.6c to the 26th

1.9c below the 61 to 90 average
2.0c below the 81 to 10 average

[snowray]

So no change for boxing day, or its rounded up but short of the 0.1c increase I expected. Certainly turned colder last 24 hours, may also not see much of a climb today.

 

Edited December 27, 2022 by snowray