December 2022 C.E.T. and EWP contests _ start of a new contest year

[Summer Sun]

2.4c to the 10th

2.2c below the 61 to 90 average
2.8c below the 81 to 10 average

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think that is almost a certainty now. Plenty of 06z GFS runs keep the cold running after next weekend, you have to wonder where the CET will end up if it keeps going.

I went far too mild with 3.9C......

not necessarily, im still fairly confident with my 3.4c

Edited December 11, 2022 by feb1991blizzard

[Don]

10 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

not necessarily, im still fairly confident with my 3.4c

I don't think 5C plus is out of the question ATM!!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Don said:

I don't think 5C plus is out of the question ATM!!

i think it will be under 4c to be honest - unless its severely mild double digit maxs last 10 days, remember its going to be about 1 to 1.5 by about 17th.

[Don]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

i think it will be under 4c to be honest - unless its severely mild double digit maxs last 10 days, remember its going to be about 1 to 1.5 by about 17th.

I agree that 5C plus is an outside chance but possible we could lock into a very mild prolonged pattern after next weekend?  I hope not mind!!

[Summer Sun]

2.0c to the 11th

2.5c below the 61 to 90 average
3.1c below the 81 to 10 average

[Frigid]

A further 5/6 days of the CET plummeting. Can easily see this around the low to mid 0s around the 18th with severe frosts and ice days across the region. who knows what the latter third will bring. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 2.2C  -4C below average. Rainfall 19.9mm 22.7% of the monthly average.

Using the local forecast we should be near 1.5C to 1.7C by the 15th.  The everything up in the air whether we go mild 2nd half or stumble back into cold UKMO looks the more sensible evolution but then mild always wins.

[Roger J Smith]

Reposting the daily records with values to date for comparison. This table strips out the CET legacy values that were posted originally (page 6 of thread): 

Record low max CET (1878 to 2021) ___ Record low mean (1772-2021) __ Record low minima (1878 to 2021)

Date ___ CET v2.0 __ 2022 ______CET v2.0 __ 2022 ________ CET v2.0 __ 2022

08 Dec __-0.7 1967 __ 3.0 ______ -5.4 (1807) __-1.1 _______ -6.9 _ 2010 __ -5.1

09 Dec __ 0.6 1981 __ 3.5 ______ -4.0 (1803) __ -0.8 _______-5.6 _ 1967 __ -5.1

10 Dec __-1.5 1981 __ 3.2 ______ -4.5 (1784) __ -0.5 _______-7.0 _ 1981 __ -4.1

11 Dec __-1.5 1882 __ 0.7 ______ -6.7 (1784) __ -1.4 _______-6.8 _ 1882 __ -3.4

12 Dec __-4.0 1981 __ 0.1 ______ -8.7 (1981) __ -1.9 _______-13.5_ 1981 __ -3.9

13 Dec _-1.3 1878,1920 _ -0.4 ___ -6.7 (1981) __ -2.3 _______-16.1_ 1981 __ -4.1

14 Dec __-2.4 1878 __ 0.4 ______ -5.5 (1878) __ -2.5 ________-8.6 _ 1878 __ -5.5

15 Dec ___0.4 1890,1950 _ 0.5___ -5.4 (1788) __ -4.4 ________-8.3 _1878 __ -9.3

16 Dec __-0.2 1981 __ 2.8 _______ -6.4 (1859) __-2.6 ________-5.6 _1899 __ -8.0

17 Dec __-0.7 1981 __ 4.0 _______ -7.5 (1859) __-1.3 ________-7.8 _ 1878 __ -6.6

18 Dec __-1.2 1927 __ ??? _______ -7.0 (1859) __ ??? ________-7.5 _ 1981__ ???

19 Dec __-3.2 2010 __ ??? _______ -6.8 (2010) __ ??? _______-10.4 _ 2010 __ ???

20 Dec __-2.1 1938 __ ??? _______ -7.0 (2010) __ ??? ______ -12.5 _ 2010 __ ???

A majority of the daily mean records are from pre-1878 which may indicate that some of the above had lower values then

The low max for 15th and 16th are not all that low, best chances to set records. Obviously 1859 was colder than some of the days setting low max and min records 16th to 18th and would possibly have been around -3 max -10 min. 

 

Edited December 18, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[damianslaw]

I think today was the coldest CET mean value in December since 2010? Quite possibly since Christmas Day or Boxing Day 2010 - anyone confirm? Tomorrow could well be colder still.

The CET will take a nosedive over next 4 days with many places struggling to achieve means above 0 degrees, indeed minus figures for many.

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

I think today was the coldest CET mean value in December since 2010? Quite possibly since Christmas Day or Boxing Day 2010 - anyone confirm? Tomorrow could well be colder still.

The CET will take a nosedive over next 4 days with many places struggling to achieve means above 0 degrees, indeed minus figures for many.

Yep..

Looks like sub 1.0C to me by the 18th.

MIA

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep..

Looks like sub 1.0C to me by the 18th.

MIA

Could very easily drop into the point zeros category, then a rise looks probable from the 18th, the chances of a below 61-90 average finish still look very high even if the rest of the month after that was exceptionally mild, and I doubt that will happen. Hard to say how things may pan out, could be a finish in the 2s, or 3s. outside chance of 4s - but unlikely.

[Midlands Ice Age]

10 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Could very easily drop into the point zeros category, then a rise looks probable from the 18th, the chances of a below 61-90 average finish still look very high even if the rest of the month after that was exceptionally mild, and I doubt that will happen. Hard to say how things may pan out, could be a finish in the 2s, or 3s. outside chance of 4s - but unlikely.

Will need the air to clear down here for this. Too much cloud at present here in the heart of CET zone .

It gave a min last night of -1.9C,and today reached -0.2C,  But with a clear sky we could reach -7.0C easily, and probable 0,2- 2.0 max.

That's what we need for a much lower CET. Possibly would then break records for 15th and 16th.  (see above)

MIA

Edited December 12, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[Frigid]

My CET prediction of 1.8C could be hit or miss ngl. It's crazy to think that it maybe possible but I have a feeling we'd be in the 2-4C range by months end. Hopefully this mild spell of weather get's watered down and isn't protracted like 2012 for instance.

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 minute ago, Frigid said:

My CET prediction of 1.8C could be hit or miss ngl. It's crazy to think that it maybe possible but I have a feeling we'd be in the 2-4C range by months end. Hopefully this mild spell of weather get's watered down and isn't protracted like 2012 for instance.

Mine was for 1.0C!!!! Little chance unless some of the more extreme patterns produce.

[damianslaw]

57 minutes ago, Frigid said:

My CET prediction of 1.8C could be hit or miss ngl. It's crazy to think that it maybe possible but I have a feeling we'd be in the 2-4C range by months end. Hopefully this mild spell of weather get's watered down and isn't protracted like 2012 for instance.

The polar vortex looks weaker and more to the Asian side, jetstream weaker as well, unlikely to see sustained mild, but if azores/euro high sets up we may see a continuous feed from the south and south west a bit like November, but stronger heights to the NW this time so suspect not the case.

[Frigid]

Well.. it's unlikely but the GFS 00Z has us very cold throughout the run, with a one day mild blip . Can't imagine what the CET will be like if it were to happen. 

Edited December 13, 2022 by Frigid

[LetItSnow!]

Some of the output today has me favouring the lower estimates again to be honest.

[Summer Sun]

1.7c to the 12th

2.8c below the 61 to 90 average
3.3c below the 81 to 10 average

[Frigid]

17 hours ago, damianslaw said:

I think today was the coldest CET mean value in December since 2010? Quite possibly since Christmas Day or Boxing Day 2010 - anyone confirm? Tomorrow could well be colder still.

The CET will take a nosedive over next 4 days with many places struggling to achieve means above 0 degrees, indeed minus figures for many.

If I'm not mistaken. it looks like yesterday had the coldest CET max in December since 2010. 

We have to go back exactly ten years to see a similar figure..

12/12/12: 0.0C

12/12/22: -0.1C

Beat by a tenth of a degree. 

As a daily CET mean, Dec 2012 still beats us with -2.4C on the 12th. Came close to that yesterday at -2.0C

Edited December 13, 2022 by Frigid

[Midlands Ice Age]

2 hours ago, Frigid said:

If I'm not mistaken. it looks like yesterday had the coldest CET max in December since 2010. 

We have to go back exactly ten years to see a similar figure..

12/12/12: 0.0C

12/12/22: -0.1C

Beat by a tenth of a degree. 

As a daily CET mean, Dec 2012 still beats us with -2.4C on the 12th. Came close to that yesterday at -2.0C

Dec 15th and 16th all time record low max CET looks under threat at +0.2C and -0.4C.

Also our CET has dropped 1.0C in just the last 4 days figures (from 2.7C to 1.7C). The last time it did anything like that was in Nov 2010).

MIA

Please take note..

Edited December 13, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[LetItSnow!]

Pleased at colder solutions being sniffed out not just for the sake of the chance of more snow, but also wanting to keep this C.E.T. down as low as it can go! 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 2C -4.1C below average. Rainfall 19.9mm 22.7% of the monthly average.

Sunday and Monday mild days are likely to be cancelled out then GFS has temperatures heading back towards normal over xmas. Whether that happens or not remains to be seen.

[damianslaw]

Should see another notable drop tomorrow CET values, today possibly colder than yesterday, expect will be in the 0s by Thursday.

[The PIT]

Down to 1.7C -4.2C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

A shift away on the models from the really cold outlook so Saturday maybe the low point of the month.

If that's the case can see a finish in the 2.5C to 3C range as nothing really mild is shown bar Sunday and Monday.

Edited December 14, 2022 by The PIT