December 2022 C.E.T. and EWP contests _ start of a new contest year

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 3.1C -3.3C below average. Rainfall 13.3mm 15.2% of the monthly average.

[Optimus Prime]

Certainly a very cold first half to December based on the current ECM 2m temperatures (in Celsius). 

9th 2.8 

10th 2.4

11th 2.0

12th 1.7

13th 1.6

14th 1.3

15th 1.0

A selection of other December's with a very cold first half.

2012 2.3 

2010 -0.2

2008 2.3

1991 2.1

1987 2.4

1981 0.9

1976 1.9

1950 1.7

1933 1.1

1890 0.1

Perhaps 3rd or 4th coldest since 1890 having done a rough scan over the data. (There might be colder ones in there)

[damianslaw]

14 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Certainly a very cold first half to December based on the current ECM 2m temperatures (in Celsius). 

9th 2.8 

10th 2.4

11th 2.0

12th 1.7

13th 1.6

14th 1.3

15th 1.0

A selection of other December's with a very cold first half.

2012 2.3 

2010 -0.2

2008 2.3

1991 2.1

1987 2.4

1981 0.9

1976 1.9

1950 1.7

1933 1.1

1890 0.1

Perhaps 3rd or 4th coldest since 1890 having done a rough scan over the data. (There might be colder ones in there)

Thanks for these stats, yes could be about to see a notably cold first half to December, despite was was a fairly average start. 1981 probably the one to compare to, the period 7-14th looking notably cold. No sign of the cold disappearing until at least the 17/18th and it may only be a temporary warm up back to average levels before further cold returns. This has happened in other coldish December, 2008 did this, and 2010 notably so. 

Could be about to see a logn run of sub zero mean CET. Not something often see in Dec, more likely Jan and Feb.

This December showing strong echos of 1976 , and 2022 has been very similiar to 1976.

[Don]

6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Thanks for these stats, yes could be about to see a notably cold first half to December, despite was was a fairly average start. 1981 probably the one to compare to, the period 7-14th looking notably cold. No sign of the cold disappearing until at least the 17/18th and it may only be a temporary warm up back to average levels before further cold returns. This has happened in other coldish December, 2008 did this, and 2010 notably so. 

Could be about to see a logn run of sub zero mean CET. Not something often see in Dec, more likely Jan and Feb.

This December showing strong echos of 1976 , and 2022 has been very similiar to 1976.

December 2008 did go very mild for a time after mid-month before becoming much colder again after Christmas, which lasted into the first week of January.

Also, in December 1981, the cold relented around the 14th (in the south at least) with a thaw, before becoming cold again in the run up to Christmas with more snow.

Edited December 9, 2022 by Don

[damianslaw]

24 minutes ago, Don said:

December 2008 did go very mild for a time after mid-month before becoming much colder again after Christmas, which lasted into the first week of January.

Also, in December 1981, the cold relented around the 14th (in the south at least) with a thaw, before becoming cold again in the run up to Christmas with more snow.

1995 also, there was a very shorter lived milder blip before the cold came back christmas Eve.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

56 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

1995 also, there was a very shorter lived milder blip before the cold came back christmas Eve.

I remember the snow at Leeds university in 1995 having snowball fights!

[Frigid]

What I've noticed is the models and forecasts have largely underestimated the 2m temperatures and how cold it gets. Wouldn't be surprised to see the CET in the 0s by the 18th. 

[Roger J Smith]

Coldest running means (v2.0 CET) for 15th to 18th ... in order of the values for 1st-16th since that's officially the first half of a 31-day month ...

The table includes all years 1772 to 2021 that had a running mean of 1.0 or lower on any of those four days. Also shown, the coldest running mean after 18th (if it continued to warm, then from before or during this interval in brackets), and the end result by 31st. I will add 2022 actuals to this table and repost it after 18th (if the cold spell goes on longer then will extend it, current guidance shows big warming trend 18-19). (ties such as 1879, 1844 on 16th broken by second decimals)

YEAR ____ CET 1-15 __ CET 1-16 __ CET 1-17 __ CET 1-18 ____ coldest ____ end DEC

1879 _____-1.3 _____ -1.0 _____ -1.0 _____ -0.9 ______(-3.7) (7th) _______ 0.7

1844 _____-1.2 _____ -1.0 _____ -0.7 _____ -0.4 ______(-1.4) (14th) ______ 0.4

1878 _____-0.7 _____ -0.8 _____ -1.0 _____ -0.9 ______ -1.5 (25th) ______ -0.3

1796 _____-0.8 _____ -0.7 _____ -0.6 _____ -0.6 ______ -1.0 (27th) ______ -0.3

1788 _____ 0.2 _____ -0.2 _____ -0.3 _____ -0.4 ______ -0.4 (20th,23rd) __ -0.3

1846 _____ 0.1 _____ -0.0 ______ 0.0 _____ -0.1 ______(-0.1) (18th) ______ 0.5

1819 _____ 0.2 ______ 0.2 ______ 0.5 ______1.0 ______(0.2) (14th,15th) ___ 1.4

2010 _____ 0.0 ______ 0.3 ______ 0.1 _____ -0.1 ____ (-2.2) (8th), -1.5 (27th) _ -0.7

1890 _____ 0.4 ______ 0.3 ______ 0.2 ______ 0.2 ______ -0.8 (30th,31st) __ -0.8

1784 _____ 0.3 ______ 0.3 ______ 0.4 ______ 0.4 __ (0.1) (13th)  0.2 (26th-29th) _ 0.3

1981 _____ 0.6 ______ 0.4 ______ 0.2 ______ 0.0 ______-0.5 (26th) _______ 0.1

1791 _____ 0.8 ______ 0.7 ______ 0.5 ______ 0.4 ______ 0.3 (22nd) _______1.1

1782 _____ 0.9 ______ 0.9 ______ 1.0 ______ 1.4 ______ 0.1 (3rd) ________ 2.8

1882 _____ 0.8 ______ 1.0 ______ 1.3 ______ 1.6 ______ 0.3 (2nd) _______ 3.9

1916 _____ 1.2 ______ 1.0 ______ 0.8 ______ 0.7 ______ 0.7 (18th,19th,20th) _ 1.9  

1859 _____ 1.6 ______ 1.1 ______ 0.6 ______ 0.1 ______-0.2 (19th) _______ 1.6

1933 _____ 1.1 ______ 1.1 ______ 1.2 ______ 1.2 ______(1.0) (13th,14th) ___ 1.6

1807 _____ 1.4 ______ 1.3 ______ 1.2 ______ 1.1 ______ 0.7 (23rd) _______ 1.9

1801 _____ 1.7 ______ 1.5 ______ 1.2 ______ 1.0 ______ 0.5 (20th) _______ 1.5

_______________________________

for comparison, some more recent cold and the odd non-qualifying before and after cold of Dec 1870 and the later cold of Dec 1874

(any years that were colder than 1.0 before 14th and failed to qualify otherwise are not shown, for example Dec 1803, 1952)

 

1950 ______ 1.7 ______ 1.6 ______ 1.6 ______ 1.6 ____(1.2) (6th,30th,31st) _ 1.2

1962 ______ 3.1 ______ 3.2 ______ 3.4 ______ 3.5 ____ (-0.3) (6th) _______ 1.8

1976 ______ 1.7 ______ 1.6 ______ 1.6 ______ 1.6 _____(0.5) (5th) _______ 1.8

2012 ______ 2.3 ______ 2.6 ______ 2.8 ______ 2.9 _____ (1.9) (13th) ______4.7

1870 ______ 2.8 ______ 2.8 ______ 2.8 ______ 3.0 ___ 0.9 9th-10th, 0.6 (31st) _ 0.6

1874 ______ 1.9 ______ 1.7 ______ 1.5 ______ 1.4 _____ (-1.0) (2nd) ______-0.2

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 2.9C -3.4C below normal. Rainfall 13.3mm 15.2%b of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

2.7c to the 9th

1.8c below the 61 to 90 average
2.6c below the 81 to 10 average

[Midlands Ice Age]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

2.7c to the 9th

1.8c below the 61 to 90 average
2.6c below the 81 to 10 average

SS,,,

Has there been an adjustment OR should it be 3.7C?

MIA

[LetItSnow!]

2 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

SS,,,

Has there been an adjustment OR should it be 3.7C?

MIA

It's 2.7. Yesterday's update was 3.2 but was mistakenly entered on here as 3.8. Another cold day took it down to 2.7.

[Roger J Smith]

Current EWP looks to be around 8 mm, GFS suggests 35 mm grid average to 26th, for a total of 43 mm estimate with five days to go.

As to CET, estimate 2.4 after today, if we take an average of -0.5 C for 11th-17th, reaches 1.2 C at lowest, and recovers steadily, GFS temp output suggests average near 6 C for 18th-26th which brings the mean to near 3 C but the maps look potentially milder so could be into the 3s. If it all happens that way. 

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, LetItSnow! said:

It's 2.7. Yesterday's update was 3.2 but was mistakenly entered on here as 3.8. Another cold day took it down to 2.7.

Thanks for that LetitSnow...

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 2.7C -3.7C below average. Rainfall 16.6mm 19% of the monthly average.

[kold weather]

13 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Current EWP looks to be around 8 mm, GFS suggests 35 mm grid average to 26th, for a total of 43 mm estimate with five days to go.

As to CET, estimate 2.4 after today, if we take an average of -0.5 C for 11th-17th, reaches 1.2 C at lowest, and recovers steadily, GFS temp output suggests average near 6 C for 18th-26th which brings the mean to near 3 C but the maps look potentially milder so could be into the 3s. If it all happens that way. 

Gfs is way too mild mind you for this upcoming period overnight, my guess is we are well into the 0s by the 18th.

It's been about 3-5c too mild every night recently, so I think it's pretty likely going lower than the GFS estimate

[The PIT]

Just now, kold weather said:

Gfs is way too mild mind you for this upcoming period overnight, my guess is we are well into the 0s by the 18th.

It's been about 3-5c too mild every night recently, so I think it's pretty likely going lower than the GFS estimate

Depends where you live about the normal degree down here.

[kold weather]

Just now, The PIT said:

Depends where you live about the normal degree down here.

I've just scanned the entire country, there is barely a location less than 3c too mild on the GFS across England.

The other high resolution models look far more accurate. 

Daytime maxes seem OK though on the GFS based on what we've seen so far

[The PIT]

6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I've just scanned the entire country, there is barely a location less than 3c too mild on the GFS across England.

The other high resolution models look far more accurate. 

Daytime maxes seem OK though on the GFS based on what we've seen so far

0C to -1C here according to the GFS and we are at -0.4C.

[damianslaw]

Marked further drops day on day in the week ahead, looks like we will 'bottom' out so to speak next Satruday 17th, with a rise thereafter, possibly notably so, but it will be a very tall order to raise it to average levels by months end, not implausible, but would need record mild. Sustained cold of 3-4 weeks plus always hard to achieve in the UK, 2 weeks is usually the upper limit, and that looks the case again with this spell. I mentioned previous Decembers that brought cold fortnights then milder period, 2008 a good example. 2010 was a rarity. I hope any milder spell will be shortlived and gone by christmas eve.

 

Edited December 11, 2022 by damianslaw

[Frigid]

25 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Marked further drops day on day in the week ahead, looks like we will 'bottom' out so to speak next Satruday 17th, with a rise thereafter, possibly notably so, but it will be a very tall order to raise it to average levels by months end, not implausible, but would need record mild. Sustained cold of 3-4 weeks plus always hard to achieve in the UK, 2 weeks is usually the upper limit, and that looks the case again with this spell. I mentioned previous Decembers that brought cold fortnights then milder period, 2008 a good example. 2010 was a rarity. I hope any milder spell will be shortlived and gone by christmas eve.

 

Good chance we see a continuation of the cold after a few mild days. Models are coming up with many situations on how to get rid of cold. Look back to a few days ago where the breakdown was to be the 14th, but now the 18th. Latest meto update and bbc monthly outlook does go for a cooler latter period in December. Could well be the coldest December since 2010, if the cold continues

[LetItSnow!]

49 minutes ago, Frigid said:

Good chance we see a continuation of the cold after a few mild days. Models are coming up with many situations on how to get rid of cold. Look back to a few days ago where the breakdown was to be the 14th, but now the 18th. Latest meto update and bbc monthly outlook does go for a cooler latter period in December. Could well be the coldest December since 2010, if the cold continues

We only need December 2022 to come out with a CET of under 4.7 to achieve that, not much to ask for at the current guidance. 

[Derecho]

3 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

We only need December 2022 to come out with a CET of under 4.7 to achieve that, not much to ask for at the current guidance. 

I think that is almost a certainty now. Plenty of 06z GFS runs keep the cold running after next weekend, you have to wonder where the CET will end up if it keeps going.

I went far too mild with 3.9C......

[LetItSnow!]

12 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think that is almost a certainty now. Plenty of 06z GFS runs keep the cold running after next weekend, you have to wonder where the CET will end up if it keeps going.

I went far too mild with 3.9C......

I hope we can at least get into the 2s or under. There seems to be quite a lot of confidence that the cold will at least return, and until the 18th is in day 3-5 range then I don’t feel comfortable saying what will happen. But you being on board usually is a good sign.  

Now I wonder… is it too greedy to want or think about the possibilities of whether this could be a long, cold winter? Model fatigue, here we come. 

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, LetItSnow! said:

I hope we can at least get into the 2s or under. There seems to be quite a lot of confidence that the cold will at least return, and until the 18th is in day 3-5 range then I don’t feel comfortable saying what will happen. But you being on board usually is a good sign.  

Now I wonder… is it too greedy to want or think about the possibilities of whether this could be a long, cold winter? Model fatigue, here we come. 

I think I read we need a CET of 1.4C or less to prevent the warmest year on record. Haven't calculated it myself but it seems possible!