Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[Geordiesnow]

35 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

It's like everyone supports a different football club because they win the most goals.

You have to feel sorry for those that are new here being confused as of late.

Looking at the general theme this morning while there's still a great amount of blocking around, the lack of cold is very disappointing.

Cracks are appearing too in the medium term, if it keeps up expect a unravelling.

But as usual the problem is, whether its good or bad, there is too much emphasis on it and people expect the charts to show more or less similar within every run. Also this thing about we should not expect anything until at least the 5th is also wrong, the blocking pattern which influences our weather is starting in a few days time, how cold it gets is still uncertain but the general idea is snowfall is not on the menu at the moment and we are feeding on scraps in terms of cold air avaliable. 

[johnholmes]

here is another view, ECMWF

[Geordiesnow]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It isn't silly ,why is it silly ?

Because peeps can see the potential for the wheels to fall off?

FWIW the bbc raw has trended unsettled mid to longer term this morning..

 

I don't know how the wheels are falling off, the chilly snap is still there, the UK is still getting a continental flow and there is no trend towards any Atlantic weather as of yet. 

The Iberian low will continue to be modeled differently within every run, some may favour some might not. 

Personally I'm just looking forward to a drier spell even if its not  particularly exciting weather apart from the potential threat of frost and fog midweek. 

[swfc]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It isn't silly ,why is it silly ?

Because peeps can see the potential for the wheels to fall off?

FWIW the bbc raw has trended unsettled mid to longer term this morning..

 

Wheels to fall off on what date exactly? It may well happen but if its a worry then I'd stick to the UKMO tbh

[northwestsnow]

Just now, swfc said:

Wheels to fall off on what date exactly? It may well happen but if its a worry then I'd stick to the UKMO tbh

Exact date ?

Really ?

It's about trends ..the trend to a WB neg NAO is gathering momentum.

IMO ,of course others may disagree ,all about opinions.. 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Wheels to fall off on what date exactly? It may well happen but if its a worry then I'd stick to the UKMO tbh

And it might be worth noting that the wheels haven't even been attached yet? Try and see the weather and the models as two distinct and separate entities -- at least in terms of model --> weather cause-and-effect?

[Cambrian]

The ensemble mean charts maintain much interest moving forward from day 8 to day 13. That pulse of heights up into Europe reaches its peak around day 8, the 560 gpm line up into central Poland on the 0z ECM mean.

 

The 6z GFS shows similar for the same time and actually has the heights phasing with those of the Scandinavian high. A southeasterly flow from the Mediterranean will be the first result of the arrest of the Atlantic conveyer belt.

 

These pesky southeast European heights actually do us a favour not only in helping putting a stop on the Atlantic, but more notably, giving the Scandinavian high a bit of energy and impetus to get moving west - and the southeast European heights soon get pushed out of the way. 

By day 13, the 560 line is back down over Greece. We have a beautifully formed Greenland high and low heights flooding Northern Europe from Siberia, and the cherry on top of the icing is that there is also a Genoa low on both the 0z ECM / 6z GFS means.

  

The big picture into the second week of December is outstanding, in terms of such a definite cold signal, and in terms of being so very different to what we normally get in early December. As @johnholmes says, time to enjoy this wonderful hobby we share. Have a great day. 

[swfc]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Exact date ?

Really ?

It's about trends ..the trend to a WB neg NAO is gathering momentum.

IMO ,of course others may disagree ,all about opinions.. 

OK.. I've not seen any run with a West based nao. The east is blocked with pressure pushing into Greenland. Could you post me a chart including the nooa set up. Tia

[Ali1977]

Anyway, the mean at day 10 then 13 is a pretty amazing one for coldies. You don’t often see a signal for cold northerlies at that range. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Honestly folks these ensembles are just sublime in regards to the NH,the Vortex is separated on many of them and I've only viewed a quarter of them! This looks as favourable a position I've seen for years....but I emphasise SO FAR!! Things can and do change for better or worse when it comes to all aspects of life,and more especially meteorological events!

On a positive note I've noticed the met updated temps for my location for the week ahead are coming in at low single fingers later this week...surface cold in the equation for sure with night frosts under clear skies,and with any mist and low cloud hanging around by day we would see those temps being subdued for sure.

On a more negative note its not always wise to dissect each and every frame of every model run with a fine tooth pick...its such a large Northern Hemisphere with a lot of nuisance going on and its literally nailed on that the models will struggle with accurate goings on and overall placements of certain syonotics.

Also one final concern for me is the switch over from the old GFS model to the newer para version..already we are seeing widely alternating outcomes with these models and I'm afraid the para may be leading us up the garden path more than once this Winter! I really do feel it may be a little heavy on the cold bias side of things and will very often show us a much colder version of the events that actually unfold.

But in general I'm liking the general direction of things this morning...The cold train is still on the move...How cold and for how long being far from certain.

A gr8 day to you all.

Edit...I don't think a West based negative nao is such a bad thing a such an early juncture of proceedings..not worth getting to hung up over.

Edited November 27, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[NewEra21]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Exact date ?

Really ?

It's about trends ..the trend to a WB neg NAO is gathering momentum.

IMO ,of course others may disagree ,all about opinions.. 

Completely agree with you.

Although the charts still look very decent to say the least, there are just signs that things are starting to trend the wrong way currently.

The low over Iberia is a real spoiler, but not the end of the world. Then there's the threat just showing that everything will end up with a west based -NAO.

Still time for upgrades, but we don't want to see things gain momentum the wrong way so to speak for us in the UK.

Edited November 27, 2022 by NewEra21

[Ventnor Viking]

I must be one of the only ones that see's the 6z as an upgrade from yesterday....

A stronger HP and the evolution from east to west from this run then that of yesterdays, even the 0z. I can't post as on phone, but if you compare the 240hr from the 0z to 6z its a definitely an upgrade to cold.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, swfc said:

OK.. I've not seen any run with a West based nao. The east is blocked with pressure pushing into Greenland. Could you post me a chart including the nooa set up. Tia

I haven't seen any run showing a WB Neg NAO ,who said the charts are showing one?

Trending is different  to showing.

 

 

5 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

Completely agree with you.

Although the charts still look very decent to say the least, there are just signs that things are starting to trend the wrong way currently.

The low over Iberia is a real spoiler, but not the end of the world. Then there's the threat just showing that everything will end up with a west based -NAO.

Still time for upgrades, but we don't want to see things gain momentum the wrong way so to speak for us in the UK.

Spot.on.

[GSP]

Well it’s certainly a different watch than we are used to so early on in the season.

The interest is still there for sure, and for now at least it’s compelling viewing watching how this pans out from run to run.

All eyes now for the 15.30, then 21.30, and again 09.30 in the morning.

I do like this time of year!

 

 

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I haven't seen any run showing a WB Neg NAO ,who said the charts are showing one?

Trending is different  to showing.

 

 

Spot.on.

Fair enough. Well imo the trend is dry and cool.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, swfc said:

Fair enough. Well imo the trend is dry and cool.

I'd love a seasonal spell.

Hope I'm overreacting and wrong.

 

[seabreeze86]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

I'd love a seasonal spell.

Hope I'm overreacting and wrong.

 

If a trend gains momentum run after run I will take notice . But at range and with all the blocking, shortwaves turning up here there and everywhere I really wouldn’t worry ,they probably won’t be nailed down until 96-120 hours 

As I say we have a roll of the dice and that’s good enough for me as after all it’s still November 

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'd love a seasonal spell.

Hope I'm overreacting and wrong.

 

Dont worry northwest 12zs are about to upgrade on a different level!!!fingers crossed!

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'd love a seasonal spell.

Hope I'm overreacting and wrong.

 

Dont worry northwest 12zs are about to upgrade on a different level!!!fingers crossed!

[bluearmy]

2 hours ago, IDO said:

...the further west the northern blocking, the less of a battle for the trough to drop from Asia, as per 06Z:

And the risk that if it trends that bit too far west, the trough will drop to our west - we know that of all the things the extended modelling doesn’t currently show, a rise of heights to our se is not going to be a surprise. we do need to get some caa in from somewhere - then it’s ok if the trough drops across our latitude as the cold air will be entrenched. What we don’t really want to see is the trough envelop nw europe without cold enough uppers in place.  
 

incidentally, every eps extended cluster is on the page where surface conditions will ultimately disappoint (away from the Scots and n hills ) 
 

is the Asian vortex extending southwest likely to happen,  irrespective of what nuances happen in the 6/12 day period ?  I think that’s feasible so we do want to see the cold air get in ahead of that if possible. Otherwise we have to get that dropping trough to our south to ensure white not wet. Very complex 

Edited November 27, 2022 by bluearmy

[Methuselah]

So, the GEFS 06Z temp. ensembles are not screaming 'SNOW!' at this time, but there is, I think, a substantial cluster of colder outcomes?

    

And, by way of a little 'light entertainment' here's what they show for Moscow... let's get the cold in first?

    

[phil nw.]

11 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

The ensemble mean charts maintain much interest moving forward from day 8 to day 13. That pulse of heights up into Europe reaches its peak around day 8, the 560 gpm line up into central Poland on the 0z ECM mean.

 

The 6z GFS shows similar for the same time and actually has the heights phasing with those of the Scandinavian high. A southeasterly flow from the Mediterranean will be the first result of the arrest of the Atlantic conveyer belt.

 

These pesky southeast European heights actually do us a favour not only in helping putting a stop on the Atlantic, but more notably, giving the Scandinavian high a bit of energy and impetus to get moving west - and the southeast European heights soon get pushed out of the way. 

By day 13, the 560 line is back down over Greece. We have a beautifully formed Greenland high and low heights flooding Northern Europe from Siberia, and the cherry on top of the icing is that there is also a Genoa low on both the 0z ECM / 6z GFS means.

  

The big picture into the second week of December is outstanding, in terms of such a definite cold signal, and in terms of being so very different to what we normally get in early December. As @johnholmes says, time to enjoy this wonderful hobby we share. Have a great day. 

A nice summary Cambrian.

Looking at the EPS charts a similar picture between days 8-12 where the milder air tries to encroach around the Iberian low from the south.There may be a bit of a battle across the the UK around this period.

but the cold air wins on this one as it returns from the north east.

We are going to see ebbs and flows whilst we enter this transition as the blocking develops so beyond a few days the operationals will vary but overall the trend to northern blocking is still very much on track along with a stalling Atlantic.   

[Benny123]

Good consistency there from most members.. falling like a stone! 

[BlueHedgehog074]

I can, in a way, understand some of the worry and frustration considering all the let downs the cold weather enthusiasts have had to put up with before. While some will be after chillier and less disturbed weather which next week is likely to provide, probably more so across Northern UK areas, for those after something more (including deeper cold and the white stuff ), I think we just don’t want to feel as though the pattern will be just for nothing. 

However, there’s no definite guarantee of what will happen in the future. This includes any signs from charts and ensemble systems that seem to be promoting some kind of West Based negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation pattern). It may happen. But it may not… especially as any West Based -NAO patterns are currently stored away in the dungeons of FI. Now if it was something that gathered pace, gets increasing support and gets to within 100 hours or so, then it’s worth considering letting loose the dollies from the prams. I have known times in the past where Western Based -NAO patterns become more Eastern based to favour UK for cold weather. In fact, even some instances where it gets too Eastern based and cold takes a holiday over the nearby continent. As I think a few pointed out earlier, some of the outlooks concerning the break down of the Scandinavian High and the naughty South-Western UK Low is just one of the ideas of how things could progress from the upcoming blocked weather pattern. Variation of a theme really. Unless anyone has one of these,

it’s just too early to know for sure. It is very possible that as the Easterly/South-Easterly flow strengthens next week (unless things change still), that some cloudier periods along with some showers could blow in from the East, some of which may be wintry over high ground. Especially in heavier showers. Those towards Western UK, particularly West of high ground, seeing the best of the brighter spells.

Wintriness and intensity of showers depending though on how the models continue to handle the Easterly flow and the strength and extensiveness of the cold pools to the East/North-East of the UK. Many of the models do show the 500mb heights next week to be quite high over the UK, even when the Easterly flow tries to establish from mid next week onwards. So probably nothing particularly unstable, but a possibility of these highest UK 500mb heights lowering further into the outlook we progress. Then leading to more pronounced showers and longer spells of precipitation. More so, from any disturbances in the flow. But again too far out to be too preoccupied about at the moment. 

It’s clear many of us have a great passion with the weather and I do think it’s okay to get upset and let out a bit a steam at times. It’s just the nature I suppose for a number to feel up and down from the day to day variance the models show. Though we have to remind ourselves really that weather is something not to take too seriously. Well at least not all the time as I get, for example, the frustration of being locked into a weather pattern you absolutely despise! Not getting too drawn in by the charts constantly, either. Where the strong emotions and disappointments can then come about. Always worth taking a break, too, if the models and stuff gets a bit too much for you. More likely to come back feeling refreshed. 

One other thing will just add (apologies in advance if it has been posted), the NOAA 8 to 14 day 500mb anomaly chart continues to look inspiring for Northern blocking opportunities with a chance the core of the strongest heights getting drawn near to Greenland. Very slack and variable upper flow over the UK. No Atlantic on-slaught or the risk of negative Western Based -NAO pattern developing on that chart (for the cold weather enthusiasts, may it stay that way). Can be encouraging when these anomaly charts show these sort of outlooks. Brings some extra confidence for opportunities for cold weather. What I will perhaps say is a little shift further East of the lower than average heights around Spain would be ideal, though it could be a lot worse. 

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Thankfully, and as some others also had addressed in the thread, this is near the start of Winter. Even if this first attempt of Northern blocking for the upcoming season not deliver the snowy treats a number of us want (without totally ruling out next week may provide a small chance of the white stuff, especially high ground up North), then later into December, otherwise January, February or even March could unlock the white goods.

(Edit: PS- there’s admittedly been times myself where I’ve experienced the getting-too-hung-up-on-the-charts business, so I realise I’m not really immune to it)

4 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

eps - all aboard the west based -NAO train

From what they were showing yesterday, even though this morning’s ones will be based on the latest data, can always hope that they just caught the wrong train…

Edited November 27, 2022 by DiagonalRedLine

[swfc]

My earlier post wasn't meant to be predantic in anyway. The outlook is I guess up for change ie 7-10 days. I'm only willing to take the output as its shown and its still subject to change. If people are seeing something later than that then it's fine. The ens, nooa show pretty good output atm. Beyond that I don't have a clue. The word trend is easily used but not for me. btw the meto outlook seems to change very swiftly. Enjoy the 12z  uto. 

Edited November 27, 2022 by swfc

[Don]

It's times like this where model watching gets rather stressful!!