Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[Met4Cast]

Much better GFS 06z so far.. less short waves, think it might have taken a dose of anti-shortwave medication. Stronger blocking around the Iceland area.

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Much better GFS 06z so far.. less short waves, think it might have taken a dose of anti-shortwave medication. Stronger blocking around the Iceland area.

Yes, much much better from the gfs 06z. At relatively short notice as well. 

Here we go. 

[blizzard81]

And para. Has gfs finally ended it's love in with the southern low?

[Met4Cast]

06z GFS is now firmly in bed with the ECM, huge changes at a very short timescale.

Here comes the northerly!

[blizzard81]

It's great that this backtrack has happened in the 4 to 5 day range. Makes it much more likely. 

[Derecho]

Big changes upstream on the GFS 06z, cold air already moving south of the Arctic at day 6. Let battle commence!

[Rayth]

Another jab and hook towards a vortex on the ropes 

 

[Derecho]

GFS parallel also on board, what a chart!

[BlueHedgehog074]

For a bit of a fun comparison, this is what the GFS was showing for later on Wednesday today from Monday 21st November,

And this is what this morning’s GFS is showing at the same time for later today:

Still showing 2 separate cores of the Vortex, although the one nearer Greenland on today’s GFS is a little further North-West and looks a bit spidery with what seem like legs extending out from it. The Azores High was more amplified and vertically stretched through the UK on the first chart, though both still have the blocking extending North-East from the UK. Could perhaps argue that the upper heights on the first chart are overall just a little stronger, especially over Western Scandinavia, on the first chart.

Overall, however, when looking at the general pattern the GFS hasn’t done too badly at all modelling today’s pattern from over a week back. 

[NewEra21]

Finally GFS moves towards ECM, now watch ECM lose the plot later

[tight isobar]

Gfs headed toward ecm solution.. and don’t be fooled by its current west based looking nao at these stages- it’ll fight tooth n nail for that sync as it by definition will try all angles of Atlantic consequence- b4 bowing down.. a big step forward this morning

[Mike Poole]

This is a complete capitulation from GFS, thankfully!  T168 on both:

[IDO]

The GFS op and para half-way house towards ECM at D7.

ECM>  GFS> 

ECM manages to get a larger payload of that Asian tPV dropping south, where as the GFS still has too much interference from the Arctic wedge. I can live with that as it a similar synoptic, and that is what matters in the long game.

[Singularity]

Well, this might be the moment that GFS caved in, depending on how the 12z and 18z runs behave.

[pad199207]

We need the ECM to stick fully with its signal throughout today and not have even a hint of the GFS 

[Met4Cast]

Perhaps more importantly as the model becomes operational later today, the GFS 16.3v also follows the det & ECM with some fairly big changes in days 4-5.

We now have cross model & cross-ensemble agreement.

[Rayth]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Perhaps more importantly as the model becomes operational later today, the GFS 16.3v also follows the det & ECM with some fairly big changes in days 4-5.

We now have cross model & cross-ensemble agreement.

and soon to be cross polar 

[Frostbite1980]

And look at that trough over the states pumping WAA up the western side of Greenland 

[tight isobar]

Lovely holding pattern!.And as again we have pac support with a pretty solid  press out east .. the coldest start to winter since 2010 is becoming steadfast... we’ll take it then look for where we go in minimal scales  

[Scott Ingham]

14 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

And para. Has gfs finally ended it's love in with the southern low?

The GFS notoriously blows up short waves and low pressures after 120hours onwards and the ECM over amplifies patterns. Taking both in to account id struggle still to see how we dont see a good cold spell from this. Tomorrow will be the day when the GFS gets the 120 hours period inside 96 hours.

[mountain shadow]

I think we can now safely say that a proper Greenland high will now occur.

It's a matter of what the depth of cold and instability there in we need to iron out.

[sheikhy]

Massive backtrack from both gfs op and para!!infact its embarrasing from both these models!iberian low kept to the south now and colder air further south as well!!wiked stuff!

[Skullzrulerz]

20 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

06z GFS is now firmly in bed with the ECM, huge changes at a very short timescale.

Here comes the northerly!

And the story this evening is that the ECM will get out of bed and have a few drinks. (Meaning that the ECM could very be showing us charts like the GFS has done recently) ?

[IDO]

The half-way house of GFS still means that we get massive differences by D9 due to too much energy going into Russia/Siberia:

GFS op:   ECM: 

At least we get a cold pool sinking south compared to the 0z runs. But access to the core cold is stopped in the medium term.

[Daniel*]

Remember old adage ECM is king! The model and its ensemble suite has been much more consistent. Quelle surprise.

London 00z EPS cold looking increasingly likely to step up with increasing risk of wintry precip…