Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[Eagle Eye]

Just before this evening's output, I told my friend who dislikes colder weather that we could see a return to mild and wet beyond mid December and look at the EC46 and long-term updates since 

A loss for her but who's ever heard of a ginger from the South East that wouldn't prefer cold anyway? She's a coldie at heart I bet.

[Tim Goffer]

1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:

Remember folks over the last few years in particular once patterns establish they tend to repeat! Of course it's usually the Euro High that was doing that over recent times.

Could it be the year that the Greenland high repeats right in the middle of Winter. What a story this is evolving into!!

Just out of interest, does anybody know the last time we had a repeating Greenie high?

BTW Great read as always you guys, keep it up, it's a nice break from the grindstone!

[Fozfoster]

1 hour ago, chionomaniac said:

especially against the background of climate change warming

Another great post Edd,“this last bit of your post I quote because with climate change warming we get increased weather extremes, and maybe this cold could be extreme . I also think someone else alluded to this earlier. 

Edited December 1, 2022 by Fozfoster

[Allseasons-Si]

55 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Totally agreed.

EC 46 just updated and is showing an almost perfect -NAO pattern compared to a -NAO Jan-March average, this is a more of a mid Winter setup we're going into, shows you how incredible it could be. There is no real reason to believe this will deviate from a normal -NAO and so cold is significantly likely and significant cold potential is most definitely in the mix.

Oh and there's such a large spread on the Stratospheric zonal winds, anything could really happen beyond this upcoming -NAO spell that we're already dipping in to.

 

And not forgeting the -AO to go with it

Tanking! tanking! tanking!

the latest ECM control follows the op again this evening,the difference here is the control goes for a runner low to our south

240

the GEM shows the retrogression of the high back towards Scandi,this was what i was on about in my earlier post

everything is all reversing nicely up there in the trop,...-AO.

 

 

[Bricriu]

41 minutes ago, MJB said:

Not sure, but even if it did it proves nothing , the 46 was dreadful throughout last Winter , currently that's all I can go on.

Well in that case all we can go on is how it has done in modelling this in advance. The fact it was bad last year does not mean we should dismiss it this year

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, Fozfoster said:

Another great post Edd,“this last bit of your post I quote because with climate warming we get increased weather extremes, and maybe this cold could be extreme . I also think someone else alluded to this earlier. 

It’s difficult to be sure, Foz. But it definitely one for another thread. 

[Methuselah]

Just now, Geordiesnow said:

Still not going to get too carried away with the details, they will still change(for better or worse) but one thing I would like too see from the GFS 18Z run is not have that Iberian low coming into play and sod off basically like the 06Z run did. Also better ridging into Greenland and hopefully all that will end up it showing the UK getting into the significant cold air quicker than the 12Z run did. 

Still mindful with what the UKMO shown also, if the main northerly flow too far east and high pressure from Greenland has not established itself correctly, we could be left with a weak northerly flow therefore a struggle to get significant cold air. That is still my concern with this, I think the northerly in some form is nailed, it's just whether it will be potant enough. 

Good thinking... Although the outlook appears to be very good, those pesky shortwaves that form south of Greenland can sometimes put the mockers on anything!

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, Fozfoster said:

Another great post Edd,“this last bit of your post I quote because with climate warming we get increased weather extremes, and maybe this cold could be extreme . I also think someone else alluded to this earlier. 

Interestingly, weather models not that long ago simultaned increasing AAM suggesting that the +VE AAM state (what led up to this) has an increased chance in Winters going into the future. Only slightly but a slight increase also suggests that significant anomalies should (but not always) slightly increase alongside it. Theoretically strong +VE AAM's lead to more negative NAO's and so the displacement of cold theoretically could be strong. Hence the more extreme events may start popping up.

I also read that planets gravitational fields may lead to a leaking essentially of some momentum from the Earth over time so it's sort of a battle between other planets and climate change.

I'm pretty sure those are theoreticals but it's an interesting field of study and I suppose in the future can be used to show just how much of an effect climate change is having upon the Earth.

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Good thinking... Although the outlook appears to be very good, those pesky shortwaves that form south of Greenland can sometimes put the mockers on anything!

Polar lows won't

[Tom Montalbano]

23 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Don’t we want it slower to prevent it going west of us?

Totally agree TSNWK.

Don't want to be a Party Pooper but if the 12z ECM comes to fruition, we are in danger of developing  a West based negative NAO, in 8 Days time:

Coldies will be wanting the 12z GFS at the same time frame, to be correct:

To maintain a colder, wintry flow, we will need those strong ""yellow" heights reaching down into the Central/North Atlantic, rather than tilting towards Canada. This will ensure the U.K. maintains an Arctic sourced flow, as against letting the Atlantic in through the back door, so to speak!!

Still a long way off of course but something to bear in mind, to avoid disappointment , if you're a Cold/Snow lover.

Regards,

Tom Q. 

Edited December 1, 2022 by Tom Quintavalle

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Polar lows won't

I've only seen a few polar lows in my time, Si... I believe they don't have associated fronts, warm sectors? Over to JH!

Edited December 1, 2022 by Ed Stone

[North East Blizzard]

Can't remember seeing a mean 2m temp of pretty much zero degrees, over such a long period of time in my neck of the woods, since I started model watching. Incredible really.

Some ridiculously cold members in there. GFS and GEM ensembles paint a similar picture

[chionomaniac]

I have been on here too many years to mention. I loved the thrill of comparing each model run, and will do so again when modelling comes down to within 24 hours with potential snow events. 
However, I now look at day five and see that as a base mark for what is likely going forward. If the long wave patterns are in agreement between models, then I will look at 850’s etc for fun only. Because these are likely to change considerably, with only slight broad scale changes. And changes in the 850’s and lower flow will have major impacts on surface conditions. So be patient with surface pressure and 850 temp differences on runs, but look firstly and foremost on the upper level Synoptics up to day five and don’t be concerned with surface activity. 

Also, take a break, and don’t feel the need to look at every model and every run. You will be better off for it, it’s not as if you can have any control either.  
The outlook is good, enjoy it. 

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, Mark wheeler said:

Hope this is allowed.

 

Model Tweets thread

 

 

[Duane S.]

We have to remember the fine margins involved with cold/snow and our water surrounded isle.

It’s always amusing to watch as one poster panic things are going too far NW whilst another is focusing on another chart worrying about it slipping SE .

 This is no standard toppler situation, thanks to the retrogression in play, for once we aren’t worried about the cold slipping east through the Low Countries and we’re back to mild mush. However a west based NAO is always a possibility. We can’t have it all ways, we won’t ever have that margin of error.

Anyway, bottom line, we have a great chance for a proper cold spells, reloads and a memorable winter folks

[P-M]

13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I've only seen a few polar lows in my time, Si... I don't believe they don't have associated fronts, warm sectors? Over to JH!

I recall one in the November 2010 spell that pummeled the East Coast up here for hours.  I seem to remember John H looking at a screen grab I sent him and it looked like a sea horse shape funnily enough as I tracked it across the North sea.  Was immense the snowfall from it.

Edited December 1, 2022 by P-M
Spelling

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I've only seen a few polar lows in my time, Si... I believe they don't have associated fronts, warm sectors? Over to JH!

I have read is heading to that they are of a polar origin sourced air that are fuelled by the warmer SST'S in the N atlantic,...great read.

[Day_9]

How it starts and how it ends (at D10 anyway).

 

it was like this 2 years ago if you remember.  Ridiculously synoptics but always at or beyond D10 and the breakdown in here when it all ended was  spectacular.  
 

yes it could easily go pear shaped but this one feels unflinching.

 Just be aware though that for everyone clapping their hands in glee, there will be many millions for whom this will not mean good news.  Dazzling output, terrifying consequences at the moment for many.

[summer blizzard]

Euro tonight is an upgrade in the medium term dropping the low at day 6. Mod ls tonight then generally upgrade the long run via shifting blocking back towards Scandinavia.

[LightningLover]

Currently micro-analyzing every minute detail by going on to the 3 hour increments mode on the 18z GFS... As if it somehow makes a difference lol!

[Ice Day]

GEFS from the 12z are really very very good 

The ECM ensembles are pretty much their equal, 

Let's see what the 18z has to say

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Day_9 said:

How it starts and how it ends (at D10 anyway).

 

it was like this 2 years ago if you remember.  Ridiculously synoptics but always at or beyond D10 and the breakdown in here when it all ended was  spectacular.  
 

yes it could easily go pear shaped but this one feels unflinching.

 Just be aware though that for everyone clapping their hands in glee, there will be many millions for whom this will not mean good news.  Dazzling output, terrifying consequences at the moment for many.

I know a Canadian and I know a Norwegian- they just get on with it. Temperatures of -10C is just normal fayre for them.

[sheikhy]

Just now, LightningLover said:

Currently micro-analyzing every minute detail by going on to the 3 hour increments mode on the 18z GFS... As if it somehow makes a difference lol!

It can mate!!im doing the same thing especially with its fetish with the iberian low!

[chionomaniac]

2 minutes ago, Day_9 said:

How it starts and how it ends (at D10 anyway).

 

it was like this 2 years ago if you remember.  Ridiculously synoptics but always at or beyond D10 and the breakdown in here when it all ended was  spectacular.  
 

yes it could easily go pear shaped but this one feels unflinching.

 Just be aware though that for everyone clapping their hands in glee, there will be many millions for whom this will not mean good news.  Dazzling output, terrifying consequences at the moment for many.

I can remember the opposite with significant Strat splits. Day 10 in 2009 feb showed a split vortex from the Strat downwards, but no matter what scenario evolved in between, the end result drew closer and was always the same. With this Greenland block I have a similar feeling

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I know a Canadian and I know a Norwegian- they just get on with it. Temperatures of -10C is just normal fayre for them.

Sounds like the start of a joke.

A Canadian and a Norwegian walk into a bar...

And probably take all of the UK's favourite drink of snow and cold.