Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[Mike Poole]

What on earth are folks whinging about?  The real cold interest is after day 10 at the moment, the formation of the true Greenland high, and GFS 12z is right at it!

Like the earlier runs were…

T300:

[Frostbite80]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

What on earth are folks whinging about?  The real cold interest is after day 10 at the moment, the formation of the true Greenland high, and GFS 12z is right at it!

Like the earlier runs were…

T300:

Because of inpatience, if you dont see eye candy charts every time its dead i  the water

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

What on earth are folks whinging about?  The real cold interest is after day 10 at the moment, the formation of the true Greenland high, and GFS 12z is right at it!

Like the earlier runs were…

T300:

Exactly Mike. I'm not sure what folk are expecting tbh

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

What on earth are folks whinging about?  The real cold interest is after day 10 at the moment, the formation of the true Greenland high, and GFS 12z is right at it!

Like the earlier runs were…

T300:

That’s what I think the problem is Mike, it’s always after day 10 and doesn’t seem to be counting down, it was day 12 three days ago and it’s still day 12 three days later which means any real cold delayed from the 4th/5th to the 9th/10th. It’s frustrating for sure and people are getting impatient given the perfect Synoptics.

 

I think patience is very much required here though and we will eventually hit the jackpot 

[Cold Winter Night]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

What on earth are folks whinging about?  The real cold interest is after day 10 at the moment, the formation of the true Greenland high, and GFS 12z is right at it!

Like the earlier runs were…

T300:

Exactly.
Apparently some people expect Christmas to suddenly be within the 5 day range.

I actually prefer the shape and placement of this High better than the previous runs.
And "no cold available"? I haven't seen this much cold to the Northeast in December in a very long time.

[January Snowstorm]

7 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

That’s what I think the problem is Mike, it’s always after day 10 and doesn’t seem to be counting down, it was day 12 three days ago and it’s still day 12 three days later which means any real cold delayed from the 4th/5th to the 9th/10th. It’s frustrating for sure and people are getting impatient given the perfect Synoptics.

 

I think patience is very much required here though and we will eventually hit the jackpot 

Yes you are correct Day 12 four days ago and still Day 12. It hasn't even counted down by a day.

The trend is consistently good though so you would imagine our luck will improve soon!

[Singularity]

Models usually struggle to resolve a cut-back polar jet on the eastern flank of a blocking high until it’s working at least a week’s lead time, so I’d not worry about the details of just how cold or not the air is at any given stage once the high has shifted to our N or NW. 

Also, localised cold pooling in slack areas tends to be better picked up once within 5 about days range.

No denying it will take a lot to overcome the relative warmth of the North Sea and bring snowfall to lowland areas, though. Hence I’m excited only by the unusual weather patterns at this stage, not the surface outcome which could fall within a wide range of possibilities.

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

What on earth are folks whinging about?  The real cold interest is after day 10 at the moment, the formation of the true Greenland high, and GFS 12z is right at it!

Like the earlier runs were…

T300:

The cold encompasses the whole of the UK on D14, what possibly can go wrong? 

D8-D14: 

 

[Mike Poole]

Moving on T318, seen this a few times now, we already have the omega block, coining the phrase ‘heart block’ - keeps it’s options open Greenland or Scandi, what I was saying before:

[Day 10]

Not sure why such negativity and stress over the uppers, nothing has happened yet and the interesting stuff is still out in the mid to longer term. Things still look ok to me and.................

Last time I looked Winter officially begins 21st December, anything before is a bonus.

Awful chart as we approach Winter

[feb1991blizzard]

another terrible run.

[Geordiesnow]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

What on earth are folks whinging about?  The real cold interest is after day 10 at the moment, the formation of the true Greenland high, and GFS 12z is right at it!

Like the earlier runs were…

T300:

The good ol' infamous day 10! 

I actually thought the the GFS 12Z run was an decent run in fairness, block more south and westwards and some hint of troughing in Western Russia. The lack of deep cold will always be there though in the short to medium term. 

It's ashame the small pools of cold air we do have are not that just bit colder over the UK as any shallow heights within the flow(as the GFS shows) increases the risk of precipation and with a continental flow may give surprising snow somewhere but the air is not cold enough sadly. 

[That ECM]

T180 mean. I’m happy to watch with interest.

[northwestsnow]

Ukmo 168

Better not be more rain although I can't see the precip charts we need that low to do one .

Surely the blocking will force the low south

Edited November 26, 2022 by northwestsnow

[That ECM]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Ukmo 168

Close to the gfs mean. 

[Mark wheeler]

Yes please , That will do nicely thanks  

Edited November 26, 2022 by Mark wheeler

[Mike Poole]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Ukmo 168

That looks such a clean solution, compared to GFS same time:

Better WAA on UKMO, might bring the toys home sooner!  Anyone else feeling it?  Best synoptics by miles modelled (not reality, I hasten to add) since 2018….Go Winter 22/23.

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ukmo 168

Better not be more rain although I can't see the precip charts we need that low to do one .

Surely the blocking will force the low south

Thats a brilliant chart mate!!!like you i think that low needs to be just ever so slightly further south and east but overall i will take it!

Infact i think ukmo at 168 hours is much better than gfs at the same time!!

[IDO]

1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

The good ol' infamous day 10! 

I actually thought the the GFS 12Z run was an decent run in fairness, block more south and westwards and some hint of troughing in Western Russia. The lack of deep cold will always be there though in the short to medium term. 

It's ashame the small pools of cold air we do have are not that just bit colder over the UK as any shallow heights within the flow(as the GFS shows) increases the risk of precipation and with a continental flow may give surprising snow somewhere but the air is not cold enough sadly. 

They are my thoughts; the static nature of our region, D8-13, would be enhanced from a cold POV if we received a cold pool earlier in the run, that sat over the UK in those shallow heights. A missed oppotunity this run, but all likely to change post D8 next run.

The control at D8 highlights that:

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

UKMO 168 excellent  lovely evolution 

12z GFS p bit less clear on wetter but there's the big cold pool (no iso charts on wetter so need to use the 850hpa) -10s and -15s in there

 

GFS 12Z 

11 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

it’s always after day 10 and doesn’t seem to be counting down, it was day 12 three days ago and it’s still day 12 three days later

If Mike's pet peeve is the west based NAO comments one of mine is this "day 10" fascination 

GFS 12z from three days ago it's not still day 12, actually decent consistency there and compare with the 12z today ^^ I'd actually call that quite a substantial upgrade in the depth of the cold available 

[Snowy L]

19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

What on earth are folks whinging about?  The real cold interest is after day 10 at the moment, the formation of the true Greenland high, and GFS 12z is right at it!

Like the earlier runs were…

T300:

I get you but I'm just tempering my own expectations really. There's a lot of eye candy but the fact is the first flakes of snow in this amazing run are probably 15 days away. There is not a quick route to snow with the coming set up so just being cautious as there will likely be a long time between the block setting up to our North and the first flakes of snow. I'm taking it one step at a time get the block in first before any excitement.

[Snowyowl9]

Lets start with the reliable timeframe..

This scandi high has been showing for the last week to 10 days as last week showed it pretty persistant..

What day did it rain all day and 6c..

So as winter aproaches after seeing mild or very mild S to SWlys most of the autumn,we are very fortunate to see a major shift..

Knowing how cold these surface cold SElys can be anyhow its a big change coming..

 

I m sure we ll see allsorts of scenarios showing up yet..

Edited November 26, 2022 by Snowyowl9

[Singularity]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ukmo 168

Better not be more rain although I can't see the precip charts we need that low to do one .

Surely the blocking will force the low south

Frontal rain reaches Ireland & fringes into the far west of Wales & Cornwall before stalling. Low would indeed slip a little south & gradually fill in (weaken) as it has no support from upstream (west or northwest).

Space for high pressure to firm up around Iceland too.

[Mike Poole]

[northwestsnow]

Im totally bewildered by Exeter again today.

Where on earth are they getting unsettled from the NW from ?

UKMO - nope

GFS - nope

EC- nope