Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[Frostbite80]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im totally bewildered by Exeter again today.

Where on earth are they getting unsettled from the NW from ?

UKMO - nope

GFS - nope

EC- nope

Its the weekend no decent forecasters about lol

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Anyone else feeling it?

Ngl my reaction to the modelling for the past week+ and as we go forward is like this 

 

[Methuselah]

Well then, isn't today's GFS 12Z spiffing... Okay, so it's a tad squiffy, early doors, but by gad gets there in the end!

    

    

    

 

[ITSY]

For goodness sake, I'm now remembering why I've not been in here for the best part of 6 months. You can't expect scenarios at T+300 to jump to T+192 without time. Allow the evolution to develop. I kind of wish there were a function that would prevent us all from posting until operational runs were finished! As I said earlier - patience is a virtue in this game. Anyway, the setup is perfectly poised for a cold incursion on that run from the GFS Op. Eyes towards the Para, the GEFS and then the GEM and ECM to see what they've got in store. 

[northwestsnow]

GEM follows UKMO..

168

 

Then..

Edited November 26, 2022 by northwestsnow

[Mike Poole]

OK, let’s pick up the GFS //, it’s late on parade this afternoon, but here T222, the block is strong, but which way will it go, west or east?

Potential vortex split too.

Footnote to the epic GFS 12z run, is continued pressure on the vortex in the strat:

No sign of the GEM…

Edit @northwestsnow ^ that’s the GEM 0z.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Mike Poole

[claret047]

20 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Yes please , That will do nicely thanks  

Mark, I trust you and your family are well. What are you doing posting GFS charts? BTW when does the mighty Navgem come out?

Lind Regards

Dave 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

OK, let’s pick up the GFS //, it’s late on parade this afternoon, but here T222, the block is strong, but which way will it go, west or east?

Potential vortex split too.

Footnote to the epic GFS 12z run, is continued pressure on the vortex in the strat:

No sign of the GEM…

Edit @northwestsnow ^ that’s the GEM 0z.

Thanks mate 

Sorry peeps

[Ice Day]

That's a cracking GEFS mean considering it's out at 252 - and an improvement vs the 6z.  That'll do for me.

[Allseasons-Si]

The control just after day ten(252) ready to drop the tpv lobe into Scandi as well as quite a few others...

and the mean  is spiffing with aslo that Asian tpv lobe heading south into Scandi,...block more evident into Greenland too.

252 and 264 vs 06z 276

Edit: i see @Ice Day posted it ^^

Edited November 26, 2022 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Mark wheeler]

8 minutes ago, claret047 said:

Mark, I trust you and your family are well. What are you doing posting GFS charts? BTW when does the mighty Navgem come out?

Lind Regards

Dave 

Fine Thanks Dave , Hope you and the family are well too . The GFS was to good to resist . Navgem comes out just after the ECM , hopefully some opportunities to post some juice charts from the Mighty Navgem soon .

[Skullzrulerz]

56 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Yep. There’s have never been anything to suggest significant cold despite the excitement on here.

It's such a shame considering the Synoptics.

We can all look at Day 10 charts all we want, we need these charts to get into the reliable time frame for a chance for it to happen.

Betting that in a week's time we still be looking at Day 10 charts 

[swfc]

27 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im totally bewildered by Exeter again today.

Where on earth are they getting unsettled from the NW from ?

UKMO - nope

GFS - nope

EC- nope

Its says if it becomes unsettled pal. Second part low conftdence

[Allseasons-Si]

OH MY!!!

P4.

[Mike Poole]

I had a double take when viewing this.  

GEFS mean - I repeat mean - T276 (I mean(!) that’s day 11 and a half away).

Edited November 26, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I had a double take when viewing this.  

GEFS mean - I repeat mean - T276:

Looks gorgeous doesn't it

that would give winds from a NE quadrant.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

I had a double take when viewing this.  

GEFS mean - I repeat mean - T276:

following the ECM ens - hinting at dropping the trough, just after nick sussex suggested we needed it!

[Allseasons-Si]

Nearly every single member of the gefs ens has a block to our NW bar a couple by 288.

[Mike Poole]

Here we go on the GEM!  T144:

Can’t wait to see how this one ends…!

Edit, actually it has come out real quick because it was late - it goes like this:

Woo Hoo!

Edited November 26, 2022 by Mike Poole

[I remember Atlantic 252]

15 minutes ago, swfc said:

Its says if it becomes unsettled pal. Second part low conftdence

12Z EC to turn unsettled from the NW? could start to see signals at least

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Ukmo 168

Better not be more rain although I can't see the precip charts we need that low to do one .

Surely the blocking will force the low south

If you looked at the run to get there, the Lp has moved SSE on each panel.  So where’s the issue? It hasn’t moved NE to meet the block.

It actually moves on really in sync with it’s 0z run.  Superb run again and no panic NWS

 

BFTP

Edited November 26, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Mark wheeler]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Here we go on the GEM!  T144:

Can’t wait to see how this one ends…!

Really enjoying the chase again , it seems like ages since the last proper one . 

[ITSY]

I'm not sure I've ever seen such an extensive area of blocking, as the GEM is now showing for +198 

[Allseasons-Si]

And the mean is still impressive out to 324

and a 1070 high over Greenland,...WOW.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

12Z EC to turn unsettled from the NW? could start to see signals at least

I was replying to nws in regard to his post fro exeter