Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[sheikhy]

Continental flow into the uk at 84 hours on gfs 18z!!!

[Skullzrulerz]

Any updates on ICON?

[sheikhy]

Just now, Skullzrulerz said:

Any updates on ICON?

Same as its 12z!!scandi high nosing in!!really good mate!!!

[Snowyowl9]

2 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Dear old dear. Why do people get hung up on the gfs .....

Are we seeing a monster to the north...

I m getting hung up on this is a GEM..

[Mike Poole]

Good start from the pub run, T144:

Similar to GEM and ECM.

// much the same:

[Allseasons-Si]

The EPS is starting to trickle out and boy,...what a strong signal for Greenland blocking at day ten,the wheels look set to fall off the tpv...

CPC likewise,Scandi to Greeny @retro

NAO/AO tanking too.

[Allseasons-Si]

Full ext'd EPS...,this is nuts

[TSNWK]

Looks like 18z is going the retro route to Greenland.  

Nice upgrade on colder uppers as well for mid to end of this week.  About 5 colder   

[Jackski4]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Looks like 18z is going the retro route to Greenland.  

Nice upgrade on colder uppers as well for mid to end of this week.  About 5 colder   

Exactly what I wanted to hear re uppers. Get the cold in earlier and then the very cold in around the 9th 

[sheikhy]

When looking at gfs 18z at 192 hours i would never ever think a greenland high would develop from there so easily!!

[tight isobar]

168 hrs- we can have a large degree of confidence of @ Dripping point!.. the lobes will fight it out yet it’s getting more assured that the north east takes the jugular!.. and thus the dripping starts ticking... and as momentum sits in sync... notability block formats start processing.... I think we - need to think of the cold getting to our shores a fair bit earlier.than present thinking-. and we’ll see this nxt 48 hrs as we gain!!!

Edited November 26, 2022 by tight isobar

[sheikhy]

Seems to be an upgrade on colder uppers in the short term!!

[swfc]

Subtle change in the Atlantic at the 200hrs mark on gfs 18z.not as much riding.

[Lloyd1]

Does anyone have the actual December 2010 chart for comparison, thanks 

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

When looking at gfs 18z at 192 hours i would never ever think a greenland high would develop from there so easily!!

Agree.. better early doors.. but not sure where we are going beyond 204

[Allseasons-Si]

The 18z gfs is like the 12z parra and vice versa with too much mess with the trough in the Atlantic not allowing ridging to build there.

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Subtle change in the Atlantic at the 200hrs mark on gfs 18z.not as much riding.

Yep.. really noticeable when flicking between runs. 

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Subtle change in the Atlantic at the 200hrs mark on gfs 18z.not as much riding.

Small tweaks will be the order of the day/ days.. no worries from me.

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

The 18z gfs is like the 12z parra and vice versa with too much mess with the trough in the Atlantic not allowing ridging to build there.

So the // better mid term?

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, Lloyd1 said:

Does anyone have the actual December 2010 chart for comparison, thanks 

Get em here pal @ meteocial click archives. Top right . then-put in ya dates desired And click to process..happy viewing

Edited November 26, 2022 by tight isobar

[swfc]

I'm not worried, just an observation on the run

[Catacol]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Need to manage expectations I think

Unless we get swiped by a meandering cold pool from the east, the action remains post day 10 and most likely day 12. The increasingly strong mean greeny ridge looks very promising indeed for coldies but it guarantees nothing re deep cold at this stage. 
 

The very good outlook for winter continues (assuming you’re a coldie) but for now, the chilly continental flow as the month turns over is about all that seems certain for now 

Agree 100%. There is a lot of excitement on here - but there is insufficient cold to our east at the moment for these "dream" synoptics to deliver and it is a longer game that needs to be played. For those who have watched models for 20+ years now we have become accustomed (I think) to seeing the direction of travel be picked up, then sometimes dropped, then picked back up again....and it is very common overall for the timeline to be extended. Evolutions to cold regularly take longer than the models initially pick up. Sometimes they are dropped altogether (December 2012 is still a raw wound) and only rarely (Feb 2018) is the evolution clear from quite a long way out.

We have potentially favourable support from the pacific mid month, and the lack of any downwards coupling from the strat. We have had some good SSW precursor patterns also. All good news. I continue to think that any significant cold potential will lie in the second half of the month and probably more the final third. If you are of a betting mindset then this year might not be a bad one to stick £5 on a white Xmas. But anything for the next 10 days? Unlikely. I'd say very unlikely. By this time next weekend it looks likely we will have a continental flow - but not a genuinely cold one. A week beyond that - Dec 10 or so - and perhaps signs of genuine snow potential will be appearing in the models. The extended EPS certainly look about as good as we can hope for. Trough positioning, angle of the block etc etc - pure conjecture for now.

[MattStoke]

Think the pub run has been on the non-alcoholic beers tonight  

[ScottSnow]

3 hours ago, Ventnor Viking said:

The overall plus for today is still no Atlantic influence and the PV is continuing to look split/disrupted. 

Its all about foundations at this stage. Its very rare to have long lasting cold modelled accurately. But all models are laying the foundations for alot of potential great set ups mid to late December. 

Overall very happy this evening.

Yes, no point in looking at small details at this stage. Let’s get the cold air in the place first then we can start looking at snow chances.

There seems to be such a strong blocking signal to our north that we would be extremely unlucky to not get anything out of this modelling. I’ve been on here for twenty years and have experienced so many let downs. Last Christmas just one example. However, sometimes the pieces do fall into place such as Feb 21, Jan 13,Feb 2018 to name some notable spells from the past decade.

Let’s try and keep calm, keep our fingers crossed and hopefully see it verify this time.

One note of caution is that the Met aren’t on board yet, which is a concern, although that may change next week.

 

[lorenzo]

18z vs 12z - Just, I don't even know at this point what is happening here..