Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

Community Team

By Community Team
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul,

With winter now almost upon us, the model thread is getting ever busier, and as such it's important to keep it on topic. So, please keep your posts to discussing the model output, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter thread.  Or, head to the moans and ramps thread.

Recommended Posts

Recommended

Posted by Paul,

Please don't discuss this here (there's comments on the guide if you want to ask a question etc), but obviously in a busy thread like this, it's hard to cater for everyone's needs and wants in terms of the content they want to see. But, for those who want a more curated experience, following members and then keeping up to date with their posts through the activity feed may be a great way to get to the content you want, without having to wade through the content you don't. So, here's a guide

Curate the content you see on the model thread

Recommended by Paul

  • Thanks
  • Like

11 reactions

Go to this post
Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

GFS and UKMO at 144

Could contain: Graphics, Art, Plot, Chart  Could contain: Modern Art, Art, Outdoors, Graphics, Nature

No split vortex on the UKMO at this stage.  Both decent looking charts but I think I'd prefer the GFS

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cold Winter Night Accomplished

Cold Winter Night

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Posted

I like this trough moving in from the Northeast.
That one could provide the CAA we lacked before.

Could contain: Outdoors, Art, Nature

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted

Azores high gets reinforcements from another ridge from Canada. Would think all roads lead to Greenland from here, but it's never that simple.

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Outdoors, Diagram

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Popular Post
Posted

OMG.. what just happened on here?…. 🧐…ah, a new thread! 😱…anyhoo, I quite like the GEFS 6z mean in this timeframe! 😜…am I right in thinking it’s likely to trend colder?…shhh, don’t tell Darren Bett! 🥳 

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Rainforest, Nature, Outdoors, Vegetation, Plant, Atlas, DiagramCould contain: Plot, Chart, Sea, Nature, Outdoors, Water, Map, Atlas, DiagramCould contain: Finger, Hand, Person, Shirt, Portrait, Photography, People, Man, Adult, Male

  • Like 18
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

That’s upped the interest even more.  To add to why I think this is the position of the high to the ne. Imo this would be better than what gfs is showing. 

FF23233F-F031-4891-8998-D075CB293E06.gif

Could contain: Graphics, Art, Plot, Chart

Edited by That ECM
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
LightningLover Accomplished

LightningLover

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
Posted
Just now, January Snowstorm said:

The silence says it all really.

Scandi high heads for Greenland and yet uppers are poor and don't deliver!! Dream synoptics and we'll be lucky to get a frost out of it lol

That Iberian low isn't doing us any favors it seems... Too deep and it continually cuts off the potential Easterly. Hopefully a small scale feature that's being overdone by the GFS, and will get resolved nearer the time?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted

Just not cold enough. Scandi high uselessly sticks around far too long, no low pressure to advect cold into our region.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

Frustrating run this 12Z, though likely to be different next run, it highlights that even with a great "cold" pattern, the UK can miss the early fun. From D7-D11, the block is strong and UK caught for 4 days awaiting the pattern to change:

animczt8.gif

For eastern Europe, a stunning cold spell of uppers, but UK just average 850s.

Not in my Top 5 of recent runs and one for the bin.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted

Frustrating because there’s such depth of cold to our north and our east yet one little thing going wrong ruins the whole thing. Onto the ECM.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Yep, overall a frustrating run with very little going on for our corner of the globe.  As I mentioned earlier, the placement and orientation of the highs are going to be crucial in deciding the direction of travel.  We may well get some late run shenanigans looking at the 276, but it will be different on the next run so not to be taken seriously

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Art, Outdoors, Disk

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NewEra21 Seasoned

NewEra21

Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
Posted

Really frustrating run this from GFS, so much potential there yet just not falling into place. Feels like missing an open goal with such synoptics.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Frostbite80 said:

Whats the bets its a warm outlier and everyone relaxes until the next warm outlier....perspective peeps the overall trend is our friend.

No cold to our east has been fairly consistent though. There is such a thing as too much vortex disruption. Entire Europe and Northwest Asia being clear of it, nothing to transfer the cold to the UK.

 

Edit: The cold bearing low finally gets here on the 9th, but that's an entire week of hoping and praying nothing spoils the pattern since the block setting in on the 2nd.

Edited by Snowy L
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

I am being greedy, as I know we could, if we get that trigger low, get the cold in around D8. Instead this is a slow burner, with D12 showing the consensus of the mean for the Asian tPV to realign towards Europe and hopefully drop:

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature

Synoptics like this want to be cashed in and still plenty of time for the earlier cold uppers.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frostbite80 Contributor

Frostbite80

Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Swineshead, Lincolnshire
Posted

Looks pretty damn cold to the north and east to me, this run just doesnt tap into any of it?

Just now, Snowy L said:

No cold to our east has been fairly consistent though. There is such a thing as too much vortex disruption. Entire Europe and Northwest Asia being clear of it, nothing to transfer the cold to the UK.

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

No cold to our east has been fairly consistent though. There is such a thing as too much vortex disruption. Entire Europe and Northwest Asia being clear of it, nothing to transfer the cold to the UK.

Yep. There’s have never been anything to suggest significant cold despite the excitement on here.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...