Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[minus10]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

What a NH pattern that is on the para 

Even ahead of the main course the UK is pretty frozen

All the vortex east of the meridan...incredible chart for back end of November....

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

It's not far off a 2010 event now!! Still some detail to be ironed out but the odds are quickly getting stacked!

The great thing aswell is that solar input will be minimal at this time of year which should mean if the white gold did come along it would likely hang about

It is ?  There’s a long way to go before we could begin to compare. 

3 minutes ago, Bats32 said:

Wonder when the Exeter lads will start to give tentative hints of what's to come?!

when they have a pretty good idea what’s to come ……. 
 

we’ve ridden a wave over the past two runs and pretty much ended up where we started - just another week of this to get through then …….

[The Enforcer]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Even ahead of the main course the UK is pretty frozen

A frost would be nice.

[LightningLover]

Just now, The Enforcer said:

A frost would be nice.

Or just being able to see my breath!

[Bristawl Si]

12 minutes ago, Bats32 said:

Wonder when the Exeter lads will start to give tentative hints of what's to come?!

When it becomes more certain, if it ever does

[Snowy L]

14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

What a NH pattern that is on the para 

Even ahead of the main course the UK is pretty frozen

Refrigerated maybe, but it's a start!

[markw2680]

Must admit it’s hard not to get a little excited atm. I’m even enjoying sheiky with the running commentary lol. Keep up the good work!!!!!! 
it’s certainly going to be a shock to the system this

[ICE COLD]

Well a very wintry run from the 18z . Ends good to

[Mark wheeler]

Just for fun . The op ends like this

[Allseasons-Si]

Cracking model output discussion this evening/night and with that i wish you all a goodnight and we do it all again tomorrow

the anom's look great and we are in a good position going into winter proper

i know i cannot help with the leccy bills but crank up that log fire with a glass of half full red wine in a candle lit room whilst snow is falling out the window would be great eh!

i can invisage this this winter,crunch! crunch!.

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Refrigerated maybe, but it's a start!

In December you don't need deep cold uppers to produce frozen ground temps. Slack flow, minimal solar input etc etc should see temperatures struggling.

Compared to recently it would feel Baltic!

[Allseasons-Si]

The mean is good for the initial easterly.

G'night.

Edited November 27, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

GEFS mean at day ten,...an improvement vs the 12z.

^^now that's stonking.

[Vikos]

Those massivly shifted NH patterns and the PV beeing nearly completly over Asia-Russia some could say that HAARP is involved... 

[Scandinavian High.]

Cracking charts wouldn’t be nice for it to full in to place for Christmas hope for the same tomorrow.

Edited November 28, 2022 by Scandinavian High.

[geordiekev]

0z rolling out & amazing we're less than 24h from the start of the epic High building over us. Exciting times but save some finger nails for later in the week

Edited November 28, 2022 by geordiekev

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS D6

UKMO D6

This E'ly towards the weekend seems to be trending a little colder...

GFS at 174-

[That ECM]

Gfs sending coldies to work on a Monday morning with a smile on their face.  

[Radiating Dendrite]

9 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Gfs sending coldies to work on a Monday morning with a smile on their face.  

Somebody mentioned 2010 last night and that is starting to get pretty close to that in terms of GH and very cold NE flow.

Great to see, but a looooong way to go still. 

Nice to see the 00z improve on the 18z run. It is normally like waking up with the beer goggles having been taken off, but last night we did actually pull a cracker!

Edited November 28, 2022 by Radiating Dendrite

[Cheshire Freeze]

Strongest warming of the strat yet at the end of the GFS run

[January Snowstorm]

The gfs operational is on its own this morning.

The ukmo, parallel and GEM all make more of the low to our South and put us in a southeasterly flow rather than East. Granted ukmo uppers still ok, just.The evolution remains messy but an Easterly from Russia/ Siberia is not on the cards right now (which is what 2010 was)

Over to ECM in an hour!

Edited November 28, 2022 by January Snowstorm

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

The mean grows stronger. Long way to go as you say but a great place to start.

That's the 18z...slightly less impressive 0z as the troughing to the NE isn't as pronounced and takes longer to spread SW. Here's the 0z

Edited November 28, 2022 by CreweCold

[Mucka]

Yes the first time it has modelled the start of a potential SSW event so it will be interesting to see if future runs maintain it.

GFS 10 day mean not quite as good as the 18z with the high not as far N and W but people would bite your hand off most Winters if offered it.

It would be good to see a more straightforward progression from ECM this morning and for it to maintain its excellent 12z 10 day mean.

There are still plenty of moving parts, too many to make confident predictions longer range, but we have come a long way in the last 2 days in favouring a Greenland high.

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yes the first time it has modelled the start of a potential SSW event so it will be interesting to see if future runs maintain it.

GFS 10 day mean not quite as good as the 18z with the high not as far N and W but people would bite your hand off most Winters if offered it.

It would be good to see a more straightforward progression from ECM this morning and for it to maintain its excellent 12z 10 day mean.

There are still plenty of moving parts, too many to make confident predictions longer range, but we have come a long way in the last 2 days in favouring a Greenland high.

By D11 we've got decent agreement on some kind of warming. We'll have to see whether it remains a displacement or becomes a full split SSW

[CanadaAl]

21 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The gfs operational is on its own this morning.

The ukmo, parallel and GEM all make more of the low to our South and put us in a southeasterly flow rather than East. Granted ukmo uppers still ok, just.The evolution remains messy but an Easterly from Russia/ Siberia is not on the cards right now (which is what 2010 was)

Over to ECM in an hour!

Agreed. This is what stuck out to me too. Flow coming from Italy rather than Scandi. But impressive charts all the same. Especially this early on in the season.