Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

[Blessed Weather]

ECM looking better wrt two key areas. Griceland high stronger on the 0z and AL slightly further west/south.

This morning 0z T96

Yesterday 12z T120

[Duane S.]

Comparison with yesterday looks favourable for us…

[Cheshire Freeze]

[Ali1977]

Much better , delaying the low from the west. The GEFS look great on Wetterzentrale, they also delay the low and bring it across the south by T178 ish 

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM is an improvement, one of the reasons is the the core of the heights are further south towards Iceland, this squeezes the cold pooling spreading west from the U.K. trough.

 

It is also slower and the Azores low is interacting with the upstream cut off low.

[chris55]

UKMO

 

1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The ECM is an improvement, one of the reasons is the the core of the heights are further south towards Iceland, this squeezes the cold pooling spreading west from the U.K. trough.

 

It is also slower and the Azores low is interacting with the upstream cut off low.

If all that energy can get under then it’s a raging easterly! If not then it’s GFS.

Lots to keep us on our toes!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Never in doubt

[Ali1977]

Get in there back in the game longevity wise 

 

Snowier for many too 

Edited December 7, 2022 by Ali1977

[radiohead]

Wow that is a great ECM at 168. 

[Captain Shortwave]

4 minutes ago, chris55 said:

UKMO

 

If all that energy can get under then it’s a raging easterly! If not then it’s GFS.

Lots to keep us on our toes!

Easterly and this one isn’t even close

 

Zero to hero…. It should be cold to day 10 now with the winds veering more northerly.

Edited December 7, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[Bats32]

Wonderful ECM!

[Duane S.]

Just

[offerman]

Oh no! Gfs not looking great on the most recent run. Hopefully it will flip back to the long cold sustained charts with good snow chances! 

[Ali1977]

Just now, offerman said:

Oh no! Gfs not looking great on the most recent run. Hopefully it will flip back to the long cold sustained charts with good snow chances! 

The ENS are good, all the other models are great - the new GFS is  

Big upgrades this morning

[Chesil View]

Ecm looks to be following the ukmo channel low route at 144 to 168.

[mulzy]

ECM day 7 is awesome - only topped by UKMO day 7 in my opinion.  What a start to the day - very positive.

 

Edited December 7, 2022 by mulzy

[Cheshire Freeze]

That’s the UKMO, ICON, GEM and ECM on the same page going forward this morning. Nice.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

maybe a bit south for frontal snow? just S of M4 looks like

 

[Duane S.]

ECM stunner this morning. Another comparison with yesterday’s…

[Battleground Snow]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Never in doubt

Beauty of  a chart . 

Atlantic ridge should ensure longevity too.

Edited December 7, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[Snowmadsam]

 

BINGO!

a turn around, but does it have support, that’s the longer term question! 

[The Northern Ramper]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

maybe a bit south for frontal snow? just S of M4 looks like

 

Showers piling in from the east will do me instead

[MJB]

1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

Very cold GFS right up to +198 which is way beyond FI, little snow on the run but surprises still possible. MetO has a real 1960's southern blizzard in 7 days which may or may not verify but we haven't seen a chart like that since Storm Emma in 2018.

Let's hope ECM continues the theme but upgrades by keeping the cold in FI.

Andy

GFS at 192 , the cold has legged it 

[Ali1977]

Just awesome, so happy I’m going to put beer on my breakfast   country wide snow covering , lots of shower activity in a freezing windchill - possibly leading to historic/ noteworthy cold spell considering this is already 8 days in. Now it just needs Ens And 12z backing 

Edited December 7, 2022 by Ali1977

[Cheshire Freeze]

Stunning EC at 192…cold draining into our locale