Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

[sheikhy]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Have to say that I was a bit surprised at the excitement around a scandi ridge with no cold uppers when the alternative looks to be frigid  air dropping in from the northeast ….. I could understand if we were in a standard winter scenario ……thankfully it’s the gfs in week 2. 

So blue you know how you can view the control earlier does that mean you can view the op earlier then us aswell??!!

[offerman]

16 minutes ago, shawty1984 said:

Got to love this place. Its Wednesday and we don't know what's happening on Monday, yet we have people now getting excited about charts from Friday and Saturday next week . I get it's the model thread, but do none of you learn? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Completely agree with you as the charts flip-flopping so much even in the mid to near time let alone over a week away . Like you say Monday is still complex let alone any further out. 

[Singularity]

Purely out of scientific interest, that's perhaps the strongest inversion I've ever seen a model predict for north-western Europe.

[BlueHedgehog074]

1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup an upgrade, compare the T850s from the 06z to 12z side by side....

Certainly a bit of a shift South-West of the cold. Same with the Atlantic Low. 

[Mucka]

GFS ensembles now much firmer on cold spell locking in to mid month and beyond

[danm]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

GFS ensembles now much firmer on cold spell locking in to mid month and beyond

Brilliant, that’s a pretty substantial shift to cold from recent days.

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS ensembles now much firmer on cold spell locking in to mid month and beyond

Hey @Muckagood to see you for another season:) to keep on topic can you share london please?

[Frosty.]

I don’t know much! .. but I do know this is a decent GEFS 12z mean in the mid term!!..see, I’ve learned something since I joined in 2005!   ..and I say again, I love narnia.. the movie was cool…I mean cold!   

 

Edited December 7, 2022 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Think models trending away from significant snow next week! bit disappointing as a snow fan, not really a fan of just ice days and severe frost, need snow to make the setup worthwhile, where as if we get snow, then a Jan 2002 setup would be cool

could be similar to early Jan 2002, hope not though as it was snowless here

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Hey @Muckagood to see you for another season:) to keep on topic can you share london please?

You too.

Much the same

 

Edited December 7, 2022 by Mucka

[iceman1991]

5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS ensembles now much firmer on cold spell locking in to mid month and beyond

This is all well and good this cold spell but there doesn’t seem to be much snow about in these models just cold and dry oh well least it’s better than wind and rain I guess 

[MattStoke]

Just for interest, this is as far as the front gets on the UKMO before retreating.

[Mucka]

Just now, iceman1991 said:

This is all well and good this cold spell but there doesn’t seem to be much snow about in these models just cold and dry oh well least it’s better than wind and rain I guess 

It is the old adage, first get in the cold and then the snow can come.

We have not seen any consistency on what happens mid term let alone longer term and we know features that can give snow can go undetected until 48/24h or sometimes even less out.

The cold is here and we are starting to firm up on it hanging around for some time so there will be snow chances up and down the country at some point.

Fingers crossed eh?

[Weathizard]

Yet ANOTHER crucial ECM run coming up, Groundhog Day…

[chionomaniac]

1 hour ago, Scott Ingham said:

THIS.... eyes firmly peeled on this atm for me.

Hows the strat looking today Ed?

Strat is getting better and better. Not a SSW but I reckon on latest run u winds close to reversal at 1hPa. And this will take time to filter down to 10hPa. My guesstimate for SSW was late December. Now, that may be a bit too early for it. But not ruling it out. 

charts courtesy of NW extra. New addition of 1hPa by @Paul so great job

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Weathizard said:

Yet ANOTHER crucial ECM run coming up, Groundhog Day…

ECM surely won’t bin us off two nights running!  Will it?

My money is on something like the GEM, for what it is worth.

[Derecho]

Just now, Weathizard said:

Yet ANOTHER crucial ECM run coming up, Groundhog Day…

All these posts and this output being on a knifes edge makes you think of what this thread would have been like if it existed in December 1981.

[Weathizard]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM surely won’t bin us off two nights running!  Will it?

My money is on something like the GEM, for what it is worth.

My money is on ‘more runs needed’ being quoted many times in the next 2 hours  

[Anon90]

 

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Yet ANOTHER crucial ECM run coming up, Groundhog Day…

Indeed, fully expecting it to pull another Scrooge like yesterday but wouldn't be more happy if proven wrong.

[Eagle Eye]

What looks most likely at the moment is a slow move to zonal with a loss of mountain torque but we wouldn't see those effects slowly kick in till around or beyond Christmas time. It's only 1 run and goes significantly against the other GWO runs so I would suggest that it could still be quite wrong. I think we'll still see a loss initially as you would expect but that doesn't mean we cant see a quick switch to positive torque and an increasing AAM. Still a lot of possibilities in the air beyond mid month. Im not going to stress too much over it for now, the GWO varies a lot.

Not to mention the continuing possibility of a SSW with fluctuating Eddy's propagating vertically into a fairly weak Stratospheric zonal wind as we aren't seeing a rapid zonal wind increase yet especially in the lower Stratosphere.

The bottom-up split route looks to be the most likely way at the moment.

Edited December 7, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Methuselah]

Well, up until the point (thankfully, later than T+120) Old Man GFS takes our favourite storm system away on a North Atlantic mystery tour, everything seems just tickety boo...After that, I can't be bothered!

    

    

    

In years gone by, we'd have given our right legs to see charts like these!

[Metwatch]

More in the shorter range & more certain time frame.

Some higher-res models now picking up on a small feature which may bring a dusting - few cm of snow for Thursday night across more inland areas of England, moving southwards.

Uncertain on placement, coverage & intensity for now, but it does show that these can pop up at short notice, which lower resolution NWPMs don't pick up as much.

[TSNWK]

14 minutes ago, Mucka said:

You too.

Much the same

 

Thank you -  and although only out to 7 days we can if taken at face value conclude very few are bringing the low through the UK, with if that being so we can expect the flatlining to continue for several further days.

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:

What looks most likely at the moment is a slow move to zonal by the new year with a loss of mountain torque but we wouldn't see those effects properly kick in till around or beyond Christmas time. It's only 1 run and goes significantly against the other GWO runs so I would suggest that it could still be quite wrong. I think we'll still see a loss initially as you would expect but that doesn't mean we cant see a quick switch to positive torque and an increasing AAM. Still a lot of possibilities in the air beyond mid month. Im not going to stress too much over it for now, the GWO varies a lot.

Not to mention the continuing possibility of a SSW with fluctuating Eddy's propagating vertically into a fairly weak Stratospheric zonal wind as we aren't seeing a rapid zonal wind increase yet especially in the lower Stratosphere.

The bottom-up split route looks to be the most likely way at the moment.

Whereas any SSW is determined by trop wave breaks, the ‘internal upper cut’ is very unlikely to lead to a u wind reversal at 10hPa. I’ve never seen it. The way to achieve this is through the ‘riding external wave’ which leads to a tilt and baroclinic collapse from top to bottom. 

[Earthshine]

Crikey, the outlook is looking bitter