Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

[Skullzrulerz]

Sees the ECM this morning, looks at the massive area of snowfall that's forecast.

I'm glad that the Kernow Shield is working and in fine condition lol.

Need that low to go south!

Edited December 8, 2022 by Skullzrulerz

[Purga]

ECM Op was a mild outlier at the end with the main signal being continued cold - the south included.

[Tim Bland]

32 minutes ago, Beanz said:

Boom for what? It’s a 10 day snow depth chart, it’s bin fodder 

It’s showing the depths of snow that has fallen ion days 5 -7.  It’s not unreasonable to anticipate the worlds most powerful supercomputer / model may be able to predict at that range is it?  If you don’t like people discussing models / snow charts within a week range in December I’d suggest you are in the wrong place

[matty40s]

28 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

New NOAA outlook has dropped the chance of a tropical system forming from 50% to 30%, however the end of their outlook also suggests a possible rapid strengthening of the low over cold waters.

 

Showers and thunderstorms have increased since last evening near a large non-tropical area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic about 850 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. However, the system remains embedded within a frontal zone, which is expected to become more pronounced later today as the low begins to move east-northeastward at 20 to 25 mph toward colder waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough. Therefore, while the system could show some subtropical characteristics today, its chances to fully transition to a subtropical or tropical cyclone appear to be decreasing. Nevertheless, significant non-tropical development of this low is expected during the next couple of day

It's quite a beast.. and pulling lots of tropical air in.

 

[nick sussex]

I’ve attempted to attach pics on iPad ! 

So first one shows the shortwave to the ne and Channel low .

These phase between day 7 and 8 .

The momentum will cause a ne pull on the Channel low  You can see why the point of phasing is important . If the pattern is further west that will pull milder air north into the UK .

The next pic shows the more amplified upstream troughing at day 9.

This helps to box in the high and keep forcing in the Atlantic to suppress too much ne momentum of that low in the Mid Atlantic .

 

Edited December 8, 2022 by nick sussex

[bluearmy]

 

3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

The GFS is determined to try and build a Scandi HP once heights to the NW fade away. It's a signal we need to take seriously- the GFS is excellent at picking out trends like this

I’m sure that at some point we’ll see a rise in heights from the south which coincides with an amplified upstream ridge/trough and a scandi ridge will be the consequence.  Gfs seems keen on it week 2 and that could be a consequence of its handling of the Atlantic profile in a weeks time. 

the extended modelling late week 2 is certainly struggling to find a route forward on this side of the pond …..

[Dundeeguy]

Currently snowing here in Dundee Scotland with a good dusting on all surfaces. looking at the charts everyone has a chance of seeing snow next week especially eastern coasts, (even south coast has a chance) keep the faith guys ️ 

[TEITS]

7 minutes ago, Purga said:

ECM Op was a mild outlier at the end with the main signal being continued cold - the south included.

Which suggests to me the low pressure will be further S than the ECM operational suggests.

A word of caution for those hoping for a widespread snowfall event from this low pressure. What we are seeing in the model output is signs the low pressure will remain to our S. This isn't a big surprise because we see this pattern from the models every time in these situations. Due to this a continuation of the cold temps is most likely.

[Snowyowl9]

This is the most unusual chart maps I ve seen..

Cold vs mild but cold wins out at all times..

   

[Singularity]

Judging by EPS & other modelling ECM was at the extreme end for development of a small low between Iceland & Norway during Tue-Wed. 

That feature becoming more than an open wave made it easier for the low to advance further north while disrupting. A spurious addition or an important detail? Only further runs can really tell us.

The majority vote remains for the front to hardly even reach the UK, so I’d advise viewing the ECM 00z with some skepticism at this time.

[Beanz]

9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

It’s showing the depths of snow that has fallen ion days 5 -7.  It’s not unreasonable to anticipate the worlds most powerful supercomputer / model may be able to predict at that range is it?  If you don’t like people discussing models / snow charts within a week range in December I’d suggest you are in the wrong place

I’m afraid that, yes it’s unreasonable to assume that, but perhaps it comes down to experience

Snow depths for next Sunday, 18th cannot be predicted by ANY computer.  We can’t even work out if and where it will snow in 2 days time, let alone 10.  

 

 

 

[Paul]

Just a little heads up, if you've been wondering what the 'insightful' reaction to posts is all about, we're going to be putting a new system into action later today or tomorrow. That's going to use that reaction to create a model discussion highlights type thread. The system will copy posts automatically into that thread based on the number of insightful reactions they get. So, we should end up with a community crowdsourced thread containing the most insightful posts from here, keeping those posts out front for longer and giving those who would prefer a more concise model thread a place to read the highlights. 

So, please use those insightful reactions as if that were the case now, to prepare for the arrival of the new system soon. 

[Mike Poole]

36 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I’ve attempted to attach pics on iPad !  

Nick, and anyone else who may be interested, I use an iPad, to attach pics do this:

Click and hold the image you want, and the iPad will show this:

Click ‘Save to Photos’

In your post click here, select ‘Photo Library’:

Select your picture(s) from your photo library, then double click the thumbnail in ‘UPLOADED IMAGES’ to insert in post.

You can also edit and draw on the image in the Photos app.  (Same applies for iPhone.)

Edited December 8, 2022 by Mike Poole

[nick sussex]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Nick, and anyone else who may be interested, I use an iPad, to attach pics do this:

Click and hold the image you want, and the iPad will show this:

Click ‘Save to Photos’

In your post click here, select ‘Photo Library’:

Select your picture, then double click the thumbnail in ‘UPLOADED IMAGES’ to insert in post.

You can also edit and draw on the image in the Photos app.

Thanks I did finally get there !its only taken me years .

Not sure why I made such a drama over it. I used to do those infamous paint jobs and now members can suffer them again ! 

[starstream]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Nick, and anyone else who may be interested, I use an iPad, to attach pics do this:

Click and hold the image you want, and the iPad will show this:

Click ‘Save to Photos’

In your post click here, select ‘Photo Library’:

Select your picture, then double click the thumbnail in ‘UPLOADED IMAGES’ to insert in post.

You can also edit and draw on the image in the Photos app.

I hope @nick sussex can master this, no winter in this thread is complete without Sir Nicks crayons coming out and some 80’s movie references. 

[nick sussex]

Just now, starstream said:

I hope @nick sussex can master this, no winter in this thread is complete without Sir Nicks crayons coming out and some 80’s movie references. 

Bless you . I normally become more theatrical and go onto my movie references if things start going pearshaped . So take it as a positive that I haven’t wheeled out those yet .

[Eagle Eye]

24 minutes ago, matty40s said:

It's quite a beast.. and pulling lots of tropical air in.

 

The moisture feed coming up from the south has weakened a bit as the general trend and its become more stretched with no real Convective centre forecast so it may act a little more like a normal low pressure system it's just where it is that's messing with everything a lot.

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, Beanz said:

I’m afraid that, yes it’s unreasonable to assume that, but perhaps it comes down to experience

Snow depths for next Sunday, 18th cannot be predicted by ANY computer.  We can’t even work out if and where it will snow in 2 days time, let alone 10.  

 

 

 

This is the model thread where we discuss what models show. It’s of no value replying to posts dismissing them as rubbish / fodder / useless as they are u likely to be correct.  I have been viewing models for over 20yrs before the internet I was posted fax charts. As you have so much experience and knowledge to share I look forward to your insightful thoughts?

Re the low next week it looks like the envelope is central France to Leeds at the moment. My gut says at the moment it scrapes the south coast but still plenty of time for changes. In the meantime keep posting the day 5-10 snow charts / model runs and insightful analysis everyone..that’s what you do on a weather forum

 

[IanT]

NWP output this morning says “lower for longer”. A stark contrast to the global macro (financial) models that form my day job…..

Longevity is being bought this morning, over precipitation. A decent trade imho.

[Bald Eagle]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

This is the model thread where we discuss what models show. It’s of no value replying to posts dismissing them as rubbish / fodder / useless as they are u likely to be correct.  I have been viewing models for over 20yrs before the internet I was posted fax charts. As you have so much experience and knowledge to share I look forward to your insightful thoughts?

Re the low next week it looks like the envelope is central France to Leeds at the moment. My gut says at the moment it scrapes the south coast but still plenty of time for changes. In the meantime keep posting the day 5-10 snow charts / model runs and insightful analysis everyone..that’s what you do on a weather forum

 

The reverse also works, just because you post and believe them does not necessarily mean you are correct. It's an open forum

[nick sussex]

The ICON 06 hrs run by T108 hrs shows stronger blocking to the north . This will likely result further into its evolution as a more suppressed low track into the UK .

Edited December 8, 2022 by nick sussex

[Weathizard]

Icon ends at the key moment but looks a lot better, much more forcing on that low, feel like from this position we almost want the low to move east and bring in a brisk NE

[Tim Bland]

8 minutes ago, Bald Eagle said:

The reverse also works, just because you post and believe them does not necessarily mean you are correct. It's an open forum

Agreed it’s great when posts are challenged with a different point of view referring to alternate data or models..that’s what model discussion is . Replying to individual posts as “fodder” or “Rubish” isn’t, and it adds no value and it’s just trolling.. 

[chris55]

2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

Yep, looks good to me 

Absolute peach! ️ 

We have these historic snow events of years gone by where this exact set up delivers as shown above, they are a rare thing these days and in my 20 years model watching I don’t think one has come to fruition.

Hopefully we can nail this one, long way to go yet mind

[jmp223]

Intreating (ECMWF)