Northwest Weather Discussion

[Iceaxecrampon]

Low Newton visiting in laws  

Bit Slippy 

Isolated Moderate fall all clear J36

 

[damianslaw]

Just now, Iceaxecrampon said:

Low Newton visiting in laws  

Bit Slippy 

Isolated Moderate fall all clear J36

 

Thanks for that, Low Newton seems to have been under a constant band for about 2 hours, but doesn't look much. The radar as i said is very deceptive.

[damianslaw]

Last post from me this eve, its going to be one of those mornings when I slowly draw the curtains and hope for a lovely white scene with a fair cover at least, at least I know it will be white from the frost and dusting we've had. 

[Kasim Awan]

14 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:

Morning guys.

The issue with these so called surprise events is that they can disappear just as quick as they popup. Not saying this is likely with the main low but the streamer areas themselves can be extremely tricky to narrow down in terms of their development. 

Analysing the hi res output this AM tho and its clear that there are two main time episodes of streamer activity likely. The first commences today with a more NW 800mb steering flow pushing showers through the Wirral Flintshire Wrexham etc. Likely turn marginal near the coast once the showers kick in early afternoon. Locally 2-4cm inland in this risk area.

The second phase overnight pushes the streamer risk slightly more N into the central Mersey bay, potentially uo towards North Manchester/ Blackburn & maybe as far N as Moreacombe / forest of Bowland area as the flow veers more SW. Again marginality possible on the coast but inland somewhere may get lucky between Mcr and the coastal strip. - Marginal <5 miles from coast but if a streamer sets up snow possible here.

As the steering flow sinks more NW again on Saturday this might push the streamer SE potentially producing some reasonable accumulations along the Mersey into Cheshire, again rain on the immediate coast & potentially <10 miles on the coast outside of the main streamers. Big if is with this one.

These potentials could all be flops I don't challenge that, however if all aligns tonight and early Sat I'd imply localized accumulations over 10cm in low level areas aren't out of the question. Less wind than some of the classic events mentioned so may struggle to reach the Pennines which is why I've mentioned more west placed towns.

 

Slowly more SW from now @damianslaw, this was always suppost to be time for developments over your way! Think my prognosis is holding o.k. re areas and timings but maybe an underestimation of marginality - the wonders of excitement! So Swrly until rough 5am when im hoping a switch WNW pulls instability my way!

[Scuba steve]

And temperature has gone back below zero now showers have passed 

[Geordiesnow]

19 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

There aren't any observing sites at Lancaster on the Met Office Weather Observations Website but there are a few on Weather Underground.  Most sites in the region are recording temperatures within a degree of freezing, generally slightly above freezing at Morecambe and slightly below at Lancaster.  I have a suspicion that Lancaster is probably getting ice pellets and maybe the odd flake while a couple of miles to the east is seeing falling and lying snow.

Definately could describe it like that after cycling back from Lancaster to Morecambe, some flakes mixed in and the ice pellets(?)/snizzle did leave white surfaces on the ground. Was interesting to observe albeit at the back end of the shower how it was gradually getting more and more sleety and eventually rain as entering Morecambe, still evidence of a white ground but it was getting more patchy nearer to home. 

If only those uppers were a touch colder...

[Kasim Awan]

We need some reporters in manchester to tell us what this shower will fall as!

[ksnow]

Bolton just outside of Manchester all fluffy snow covering pavements and cars straight away 

[jimben]

56 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:

There was a member in coniston  Jeff C if i remember correctly 

No snow up here close to Blencathra. Temp was -4.7c at 9pm and now at midnight temp has risen to -1.2c

[jimben]

Heavy snow forecast for my area between 1am and 2am and then light snow after that as per Met Office

[Kasim Awan]

4 minutes ago, ksnow said:

Bolton just outside of Manchester all fluffy snow covering pavements and cars straight away 

Looks slow moving and heavy

[gregior]

That shower has just reached me here in worsley and it's all snow so far.

[Dark Horse]

Just looked at some traffic cams and it's raining in Wigan and no snow but snowing in Westhoughton and white. Looks like Kasim has got this bang on. Snow east of Wigan it would seem.

[Kasim Awan]

Lets see if we can get a couple cm on the ground. Those who have any sign of marginality need to be very wary of surface warming from sea undercutting the precip.

Midnight start was always planned for Manchester!

[raul_sbd]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Lets see if we can get a couple cm on the ground. Those who have any sign of marginality need to be very wary of surface warming from sea undercutting the precip.

Midnight start was always planned for Manchester!

I think we may even get lucky this on the skirts of the penines also  hope keeps going east @Kasim Awan

Edited December 10, 2022 by raul_sbd

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, raul_sbd said:

I think we may even get lucky this on the skirts of the penines also  hope keeps going east @Kasim Awan

im praying for you mate i know how much this means to you

im getting disruptive streamer vibes for the morning!

[ksnow]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Looks slow moving and heavy

Yep got a cm or two already and hopefully more to come overnight

[raul_sbd]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

im praying for you mate i know how much this means to you

im getting disruptive streamer vibes for the morning!

Reason of moving up here lol

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, ksnow said:

Yep got a cm or two already and hopefully more to come overnight

In Flash we call that a distant cumulus cloud

2 minutes ago, ksnow said:

Yep got a cm or two already and hopefully more to come overnight

Has it stopped already? looking at the shower it has around a 40min duration! you must be on it's outer edge.

[ksnow]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

In Flash we call that a distant cumulus cloud

Has it stopped already? looking at the shower it has around a 40min duration! you must be on it's outer edge.

Yes it’s easing off now sky got a lot lighter though. fingers crossed for more overnight,iPhone has me down for snow until 9pm tomorrow night (wishful thinking)

[Kasim Awan]

4 minutes ago, ksnow said:

Yes it’s easing off now sky got a lot lighter though. fingers crossed for more overnight,iPhone has me down for snow until 9pm tomorrow night (wishful thinking)

I think it may have started as rain for you and turned to snow because that shower dumped 4mm of precip over you and that pic looks like 0.5cm i.e. 0.5mm of precip! areas to your east will be starting as snow, so they might get the full 2-4mm as snow!

Excites me more to monitor low level snow!

Edited December 10, 2022 by Kasim Awan

[ksnow]

Still a good few big size flakes passing though,bedtime now will be interesting to see what i wake upto tomorrow

[Slidergate '17]

Light snow just started.. looked a bit sleety at first

[Miamay]

6 hours ago, alr1970 said:

Reminds me of a Christmas do where they renteed one of the party boats out of Manchester. It was supposed to go down the Bridgewater and through the lock to the Ship Canal, thence to Salford Quays. But it was dead cold and snowing, and once we reached the lock they discovered the gates were frozen shut, so they just took us back to Castlefield. One workmate slipped on ice when drunk and gashed his head, turned up on Monday with stitches, and I was too ill with some virus to drink any of the free booze. What a night!

Was a boozey night lol

When I went into Liverpool earlier I cudnt believe the snow that had fallen. Now it just rain and has washed it all away

[Kasim Awan]

2cm just south of Bolton