Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[geordiekev]

41 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Icon flips cold

 

And the UKMO still looks like it could be good with better heights into the Arctic than the ICON , hopefully the 168 puts the UKMin the Northerly still and not West based
 

 

 

Don't think we've had breakdowns look that sexy before. If heights build towards Scandi too...

Edited December 13, 2022 by geordiekev

[Ali1977]

GFS also looking better at T174 but not quite UKMO standard, but  the chase is certainly still on to keep this cold spell going !! 

Edited December 13, 2022 by Ali1977

[geordiekev]

12 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS also looking better at T174 but not quite UKMO standard, but  the chase is certainly still on to keep this cold spell going !! 

Feels like they're all trying to get to the position touted by the longer term charts, just a couple of weeks earlier than expected 

Edited December 13, 2022 by geordiekev
Typo

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, geordiekev said:

Feels like there all trying to get to the position touted by the longer term charts, just a couple of weeks earlier than expected 

They are certainly better but the Northerly can’t push that far south with that Hp Sat over Central Europe!! That needs to weaken !! 

[geordiekev]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

They are certainly better but the Northerly can’t push that far south with that Hp Sat over Central Europe!! That needs to weaken !! 

If there's a strong enough squeeze on the trough from both directions & plenty of time still for adjustments 

[geordiekev]

Might take a while longer for a large majority to feel any warmth from UKMO. Can see my snow lasting almost 2 weeks from those temps beyond next weekend 

Edited December 13, 2022 by geordiekev

[Lukesluckybunch]

The gfs looking great from 192 onwards heights building towards Iceland again

[booferking]

Merry Christmas.

[That ECM]

Well now.

[Mike Poole]

40 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

They are certainly better but the Northerly can’t push that far south with that Hp Sat over Central Europe!! That needs to weaken !! 

I’m not sure the central Europe HP needs to weaken exactly.  I mean, it isn’t there now, is it?  The reason it materialises is due to the low that the models cannot handle earlier in the run.  UKMO T120:

It is the WAA (black arrow) from the combination of lows marked which are trying to phase that builds the high into southern Europe.  We are currently in a transition from fully phasing the lows to partially phasing them.  When the models smell the coffee and don’t phase them at all (I don’t think the models have this right yet!) the high will not form.  

Excellent model runs this morning, a step back towards cold from yesterday.  I think they will take another step this afternoon.  Current state of play at T168:

The mild incursion is practically over on all by this point, at least.  What the models show post T168 is for the birds until that low complex gets sorted out.

Edited December 13, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Lukesluckybunch]

Looking forward to the ECM now..this is cracking stuff!hopefully it can show something like gfs..the gfs doesn't relent it stays very cold all the way out till 342

Edited December 13, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
Spelling

[geordiekev]

Bit of a North/South split as expected but see if you can spot the blip on GFS

Edited December 13, 2022 by geordiekev
Typo 😉

[lassie23]

More flip flops than a beach by the GFS.

[Cheshire Freeze]

My eyebrow twitched

[geordiekev]

Just now, lassie23 said:

More flip flops than a beach by the GFS.

Unless we're in the realms where the same model has concensus through the same day, all a bit foolish pinning flag to a forecast atm

[Lukesluckybunch]

The gfs op..looks to have huge support with the mean dropping towards the -5 line around 21st

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

My eyebrow twitched

The good news is..it starts way before this crewe

[That ECM]

[Mucka]

GFS ensembles 06z,12z,18z,00z(today)

The drop gets ever more precipitous. (Nice trend)

[nick sussex]

Oh dear that GFS is going to lead to pandemonium in here !

The UKMO gives good support for the pandemonium at day 7 !

We do get some initial phasing but there’s a split in energy which separates off that shortwave allowing the eastwards movement of the main low .

The UKMO then has that shortwave running ene with the possibility of some snow on the northern flank.

The GEM not so good as it has less blocking to the ne later on.

It’s going to be difficult to avoid a warm up especially in the south and we could do with more se movement between day 6 and 7 in the overall pattern .

The timing of the initial phasing is important . So accepting that’s going to happen the hope now is we could scrape a little delay in that .

 

 

Edited December 13, 2022 by nick sussex

[John88B]

Good to wake up and see the thread busy and Crewe posting again.

Hopefully a day of the models firming up on lengthening the cold spell or at least it just being a milder blip. It's certainly a promising start to the day.

Cheers to all the knowledgeable contributors. 

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Oh dear that GFS is going to lead to pandemonium in here !

The UKMO gives good support for the pandemonium at day 7 !

We do get some initial phasing but there’s a split in energy which separates off that shortwave allowing the eastwards movement of the main low .

The UKMO then has that shortwave running ene with the possibility of some snow on the northern flank.

The GEM not so good as it has less blocking to the ne later on.

It’s going to be difficult to avoid a warm up especially in the south and we could do with more se movement between day 6 and 7 in the overall pattern .

The timing of the initial phasing is important . So accepting that’s going to happen the hope now is we could scrape a little delay in that .

 

 

There’s already pandemonium I’m my house as the front from the sw drifts in over the next 24 hours. south west moors in for a dumping?

[Weather-history]

That's a sharp temperature contrast on UKMO 0z

[supernova]

GFS Op by no means an outlier but certainly sinks amongst the coldest in its ensembles beyond the 19th. Trend setter or beyond its station….hoping for the former!

[carinthian]

On 12/12/2022 at 05:57, carinthian said:

A tease from UKMO extended. The model shows a short wave formation along the boundary of mild/cold to move across Southern Scotland and phase in with the Norwegian Sea trough. This would allow a quick return southwards of the already established colder arctic. If this scenario were to verify some significant snowfall possible , especially in Scotland  and maybe be further south into early next week. On its own at the moment.

C

Morning all. That is quite some run from GFS for next week leading up to a white Christmas and extreme cold across much of the UK and Northern Europe. In the mean while the excitement and drama on Sunday to unfold during the rest of this week. Seems the models going for the secondary low to develop and deepen. Its positioning as it crosses the Northern half of the UK is going to be crucial in the forecast. I think from past experience as we get closer to the event some form of correction southwards takes place when Arctic air mass is holding sway near close to Scotland. Let see. Good call yesterday by UKMO ( re yesterdays extended )

C

Edited December 13, 2022 by carinthian

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

What happened to the GFS 0z run ?

Was it at a Xmas party last night ?

Lets see what the ensembles show to see if there’s support.

The 18z ensembles show some colder options after the mild on Sunday/Monday!