Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

[Stuie]

Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

There's different definitions of the NAO confusingly, there's the Azores - Reykjavik SLP gradient, Gibraltar - SLP gradient and more complicated functions. 

The Azores - Reykjavik SLP gradient I think is often used most by the US, however if we have a low over the Azores and a high over Spain it isn't a great metric. The Gibraltar - Reykjavik gradient is better due to it being more closely connected to what goes on in the UK. 

Brilliant many thanks. Any pointers towards that info?

[snowbob]

Everyone getting hung up over white Xmas don’t get me wrong it would be nice

forget the timings I still think that a lot of flip flopping is gonna take place with the models I don’t think it will be resolved by Xmas but I a lot can and I believe will change for the run up to new year 

all the major models are gonna pick up and drop back to usual Atlantic dross due to what’s happening in the states

i believe this is no way over yet

but timing wise yeah

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Brilliant many thanks. Any pointers towards that info?

There isn't any direct sources for it unfortunately, that metric may be the only one that is readily available for now, unless I created something which I could do.

[Don]

2 minutes ago, snowbob said:

Everyone getting hung up over white Xmas don’t get me wrong it would be nice

forget the timings I still think that a lot of flip flopping is gonna take place with the models I don’t think it will be resolved by Xmas but I a lot can and I believe will change for the run up to new year 

all the major models are gonna pick up and drop back to usual Atlantic dross due to what’s happening in the states

i believe this is no way over yet

but timing wise yeah

I don't really care about Christmas, it's the longer term that's concerning me ATM, but yes as you say things can change and that's what I'm hoping for!

[syed2878]

2 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

Don't focus on what you could have had focus in what you've already got . Personally, I know others may disagree but this has been my favourite Winter so far since I've joined here and the amout of negativity here is amazing because we're going to have to take from what we've got. Anyone who reads my posts know I prefer to drink from the glass that's half full rather than being negative, just my personal view. Just because we haven't seen amazing historic looking Winters in the last few Years doesn't mean we shouldn't enjoy what we've got. We've got to take the cards we've been dealt.

 To be honest, this cold still hasn’t been all that it was dry for majority of us and looking at the model. I don’t think we will return to cold soon just my opinion though, others might view it differently

[Frosty.]

I’m not too perturbed by the current model shenanigans!.. ..while there are perts like this in early Janvier!

 

[TSNWK]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

It really tickles me how some people on here are so absolute and rigid in their opinions on here at the moment. The models are all over the place - and yes... That includes the ecm (see my earlier post). However, some on here are so certain they know what's down the line. Really? When the OP runs are flip flopping like a jelly fish on a trampoline we should all remain open minded for the time being. 

I see all the runs are flip flopping within a narrowing broadscale pattern that is edging towards a traditional vortex led pattern with no northern heights. An occasional topple and a lee north westerly would introduce a chilly couple of days at random. But for anything  like sub zero days for several days at least with snowfall for the majority that ship sailed for the foreseeable when the start of December northern hemisphere pattern supporting this  starting to break this weekend. 

[SqueakheartLW]

Comparing runs like for like here with yesterday's GFS 12z vs today's GFS 12z means for Christmas Day is unfortunately a downgrade on cold prospects as the whole pattern has shifted northwards slightly so moving the main battle zone and snow risk more to southern Scotland today from northern England yesterday unfortunately.

Yesterday

 

Today

This is evident in how the mean -5 850hpa line is further north today and the blue colder anomalies are also less widespread over the UK than yesterday. Guess at present the northwards correction route looks to be the correct one but there's always hope it can correct southwards again for tomorrow.

[Chesil View]

Sadly from a coldies point of view the models appear to be coalescing around milder outcomes for the Xmas period which is disappointing. 

Those saying be thankful that the first two weeks of December were cold and in some places a bit snowy are to an extent are missing the point. Large parts of lowland uk saw very little if any snow.  As a December cold spell it was not that inspiring really. Certainly couldn't really hold a light to December2009 or2010.  Imby it was niether as cold or as snowy as March 2018.

For newbies it is worth noting that. In terms of leading us up the Garden path the Gfs specialises in Greenland Highs and Northerly based cold whilst the ECM is the master of Easterly wind ups. ( It is no accident that we have a long term poster) called That ECM) 

However I am not downhearted about the winter overall. I,m pretty certain other cold/chances will come our way (beyond the usual suspects).

 

[johncam]

1 hour ago, LRD said:

The model output gets worse while the Met Office updates continue to sound positive (for cold)

GLOSEA must be seeing something I assume

Can see the Met changing their outlook if tonight's output is anything to go by 

[Don]

1 minute ago, johncam said:

Can see the Met changing their outlook if tonight's output is anything to go by 

Very likely.

[mulzy]

4 minutes ago, johncam said:

Can see the Met changing their outlook if tonight's output is anything to go by 

They will wait till they see tomorrow’s Euro sub seasonal.  If it continues with northern blocking then there will be no change.

[Don]

2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

They will wait till they see tomorrow’s Euro sub seasonal.  If it continues with northern blocking then there will be no change.

Are you referring to the EC46 or something else as the EC46 won't update until Thursday?

[MJB]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

EC looks cold for Christmas day  onwards with cold uppers flooding in..

the clear trend is cold air sinking south through Xmas day..

 

Which is what the BEEB are suggesting 

[johncam]

4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

They will wait till they see tomorrow’s Euro sub seasonal.  If it continues with northern blocking then there will be no change.

But where is the nothern blocking on the current output , the EC46 is usually poor to be honest , best to stick to 5-7 days and then won't be  disappointed 

[Derecho]

38 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

There isn't any direct sources for it unfortunately, that metric may be the only one that is readily available for now, unless I created something which I could do.

For anyone who is interested, NAO on the GFS ensembles according to the European gradient. Can also do this for the EC. Can just spend 10 seconds plugging in these numbers to create the graphs!

[frosty ground]

12 minutes ago, johncam said:

Can see the Met changing their outlook if tonight's output is anything to go by 

looks like a lot of scatter to me

[Mark wheeler]

Some sort of consensus on mogreps . Still some opportunities on the 26th and 27th and then we begin the hunt once more . Hopefully we can get some snow on these days .

Edited December 20, 2022 by Mark wheeler

[johncam]

Just now, Mark wheeler said:

Some sort of consensus on mogreps . Still some opportunities on the 26th and 27th and the n we begin the hunt once more .

So what are the Met looking at ?

[Don]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Some sort of consensus on mogreps . Still some opportunities on the 26th and 27th and the n we begin the hunt once more .

Surely the Met Office will change their medium range forecast tomorrow, going by that?

[tight isobar]

It is what it is.. but what Is itWell unless we can get a swing of full model agreement . But the agreement maybe not what most want (including myself)  The layers @spve/ tpv will only adjust - to the formats we have on raw output!! -?. If the overnights don’t rebound-,And find placement jonts- via possible MLB- And equatorial pump...?then mobile weather for the uk looks set for dominance ‘- bk down to reality with a bump!

Edited December 20, 2022 by tight isobar

[Mark wheeler]

7 minutes ago, johncam said:

So what are the Met looking at ?

Not sure I understand the question but from what I see from the mogreps I posted. I see colder weather moving south xmas day in to boxing day especially before a warm up after that later on the 27th onwards for all . Signs of something colder right at the end for Scotland but we can't get 4 days away right at the moment. 

Edited December 20, 2022 by Mark wheeler

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm quite bemused by the ones calling off a cold Xmas period..The signs are it will actually be pretty cold around Xmas eve too Boxing day. There is quite the cluster of cold ens for this period.

And you know what really crunches my gears? Those who not only say the output is going badly wrong and is now doomed to failure,but the ones who now reckon the met will revise there update! The model volatility is clear to see,and those nuisances around the states are the main reason..Same thing every year on here though....a few bad runs and it's Exeter to back down and give it 2 or so more weeks it will be we are running out of time,then a couple more weeks the towels will be rinsed tight and thrown at great speed right in the direction of this forum.

Teleconnections for me leave much to be desired,especially in the UK and the fact we have so many bizarre things going on with our climate in this day and age. But even so the met do mention colder conditions towards mid month as well! So Perhaps not a well rounded and formed or even coupled SPV...or perhaps even a little hint of a strat disturbance..ie...displacement or even a full on split.

So much to be decided,but the key word here is the next couple of days will not be deciding anything.

And take a tip from your truelly...if the output is freying your nerves right now and getting you down,then simply take a little break and spend it with your family and friends..it is Xmas after all..and the models will still be there when you come back!

A bad day today can become a fab day tomorrow...dont get hung up over it.

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[Lampostwatcher]

I gave up posting charts a few years a

Go but great to still see others enjoying posting them 

18z gfs coming out soon 

And Fantasy island seems to be t72 now adays 

[blizzard81]

Icon rowing back slightly from its 12z run. US storm held back.