Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[Day 10]

1 hour ago, Snow Queen one said:

Does anybody think the low could be dragged a bit further south in the next few runs like the normally do?

 

 

 

No, further north

[Mike Poole]

The change in the strat charts which changed on yesterday’s GFS 0z from run-of-the-mill warmings to something rather more organised, and then went on to the next level on the 6z this morning to a split, had me running for the archives to see what things were like in 2018.  Here’s the charts for the day of the SSW:

Well the trop chart is very similar on a NH scale re the location of bits of vortex to where we are headed right now, choosing GFS T240 as representative of the likely way forward after our cold snap:

So this is what to look for on the strat charts - vortex to be split wide apart in two roughly equal parts, here’s where we were at from the 6z T360:

So, work in progress at the moment, after the first hint on an op run - on future evolution of this potential warming event.

Edited January 13, 2023 by Mike Poole

[Battleground Snow]

Heading for a split again?

 

[tight isobar]

We will be wise to await all 12z outs for close proximity!!@ Sunday/ Monday!.. and even better to enable the output variation for moving forward... there’s a whole lot of mass- micro dynamics to shell out atm..edit- Sunday/ Monday areof mass interest- And the final construction of probable.. is/ will change- but we are in the nearing shot of 24 hr- likelihood...!my money is in my pocket.. but will be on the table shortly!!

Edited January 13, 2023 by tight isobar

[Ali1977]

A split is close then it heats up again

[MJB]

Snowy from the Control

[Purga]

Looks good for central & southern England Sun/Mon

[I remember Atlantic 252]

looking decent for Cheshire Gap setup Mon night to early Wed! full agreement of milder from the west Thurs night, but hope for snow this time, unlike the Dec spell

[Ali1977]

The ENS have upgraded the blocking even by day 9 to our NE, shown here with the better mean compared to earlier !! A few examples too !!

Coukd we be lucky and go cold from the north direct into cold from the NE - or at least a cold high 

The ENS have upgraded the blocking even by day 9 to our NE, shown here with the better mean compared to earlier !! A few examples too !!

Coukd we be lucky and go cold from the north direct into cold from the NE - or at least a cold high 

[Derecho]

Easily missed given the output early next week however the GFS ens are a lot more reluctant to bring milder Atlantic air back.

A substantial number have high pressure ridging over us, some even leave us in cold continental air with colder uppers failing to be displaced from eastern areas. This would open up the potential for further snow.

If we get a widespread covering of deep snow on Monday (huge dose of caution here - it may fall as cold rain still), then we could get some very cold minimums of winds slacken under a ridge.

Lets see what happens but maybe January won't be a write off after all. Still the risk of mild air coming in next weekend nonetheless.

[johncam]

4 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Easily missed given the output early next week however the GFS ens are a lot more reluctant to bring milder Atlantic air back.

A substantial number have high pressure ridging over us, some even leave us in cold continental air with colder uppers failing to be displaced from eastern areas. This would open up the potential for further snow.

If we get a widespread covering of deep snow on Monday (huge dose of caution here - it may fall as cold rain still), then we could get some very cold minimums of winds slacken under a ridge.

Lets see what happens but maybe January won't be a write off after all. Still the risk of mild air coming in next weekend nonetheless.

Unless the met are onboard then no chance of eeking this cold few days by Thursday Friday tops 

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, johncam said:

Unless the met are onboard then no chance of eeking this cold few days by Thursday Friday tops 

The UKMO has been wrong before.... 

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, johncam said:

Unless the met are onboard then no chance of eeking this cold few days by Thursday Friday tops 

Things don`t work like that.

[johncam]

Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

The UKMO has been wrong before.... 

Mmmm , hope you are right as I love colder weather but they don't get it wrong as often as we lot do 

[Allseasons-Si]

Blocking becoming more evident to our NE on the latest gefs mean so far

12z 276 vs 06z 288.

[mulzy]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Blocking becoming more evident to our NE on the latest gefs mean so far

12z 276 vs 06z 288.

Can we trust the GEFS though?  The GEPS nowhere near as good - at lot more emphasis on low heights in the mid Atlantic.

[Rain All Night]

7 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Can we trust the GEFS though?  The GEPS nowhere near as good - at lot more emphasis on low heights in the mid Atlantic.

I think we can give the GEFS some credence, it sniffed out next week the earliest and didn't get "upgraded" in 2022.

Edited January 13, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Weather-history]

ECM 0z, GFS 0z and GEM 0z po runs from the start of the week, I suppose it shows how a cold snap/spell can seemingly develop quickly 

 

ECM 0z

GFS 0z

 

GEM 0z

 

 

 

[Metwatch]

Monday could potentially bring something wintry for more central/southern areas according to the GFS.

Other models aren't as keen & bring it further south, giving mainly rain to south east.

GFS I would say seems less likely as a solution, but can not be ruled out.

Snow potential definitely higher after Monday, may see showers and small features easily pop at shorter leader times, e.g the ICON 12z at around T+120 for the east.

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Can we trust the GEFS though?  The GEPS nowhere near as good - at lot more emphasis on low heights in the mid Atlantic.

OK not as good but it's still not a bad chart that with blocking in the right place and that looks like neg tilted low heights in the Atlantic signifying a undercut of sorts,besides it is all just for fun this far out so we are looking for trends at the moment,...chin up and glass half full aproach eh cos we have plenty going on to keep us interested for a while yet

[Ali1977]

UKV say no to snow for the south but has a decent fall for the borders area 

[Gizzy]

33 minutes ago, johncam said:

Mmmm , hope you are right as I love colder weather but they don't get it wrong as often as we lot do 

Long time lurker on here with the odd Post but I have to agree, I come on here to set up all the excitement within me before getting to the realistic menu that met office provides 

[blizzard81]

More going for an elongation of the cold feel compared to previous suites. This is a big positive. 

[jamesthemonkeh]

On 12/01/2023 at 18:14, s4lancia said:

9 SD ??

 

I’m sure it’s 6 but even so, that’s impressive.

Can someone kindly explain this chart for me please?

[lassie23]

3 minutes ago, jamesthemonkeh said:

Can someone kindly explain this chart for me please?

Modern Art?