February 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

17 hours ago, February1978 said:

Hi Roger - how was the January EWP settled? Hadley never updated their graph - was a final value published? (I have an interest of course.....!)

TIA

Andy

I am checking EWP Hadley every day for any final value, as you say the Jan tracker froze at 28th and the tables have not been updated, which usually happens on the 5th (of Feb in this case). My scoring is based on the total of posted daily values which is 97.8 mm. If that proves incorrect eventually I will change the scoring but look for any announcement in a current thread because I don't want the January CET thread to have a very delayed last post, it makes it harder to find next year when I need to find it for tables. You can see an edited scoring table in the January thread, based on 97.8 mm. 

I don't know what caused this problem, I've been wondering if it's some sort of minor adjustment to the correct url but then Feb and early Mar data are appearing and not the January finals. It could be an oversight that will come to attention when they go to post February in the tables, they will have to notice at that point that January was never posted. Or it could be a data collection problem that happened at end of January when the tracker failed to update. 

[Roger J Smith]

Meanwhile, this is the now confirmed scoring report. February's table value is 16.5 mm and January was confirmed to be 97.8 mm as I had calculated from daily values earlier. 

======================== <> =====================

 

EWP scoring update Dec22 - Feb23

__ (Feb final value 16.5 mm, Jan confirmed at 97.8 mm) __

 

Contest _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ______________ _ _ _ _ _  (absolute errors) _ _ _ _ _

 Rank (prev) __ FORECASTER (Feb fcst) _____ Dec, Jan scores _Feb score (rank) __ TOTAL ___ Dec err _Jan err _Feb err___avg (rank) (prev)

_01 __  09 ____ cymro (48.0) ________________ 7.56 ___ 8.68 ____ 8.10 (11) ________24.34 ______ 24.0 ____ 2.2 ____ 31.5 ____ 19.23 _03 __(15)    

_02 __ 04 ____ February1978 (55.0) _________8.33 ___ 9.20 ____ 6.58 (19) ________24.11 ______ 18.0 ____ 1.8 ____ 38.5 ____ 19.43 _04 _ (T6)     

_03 __ 08 ____ Bobd29 (52.0) _______________ 9.48 ___ 6.77 ____ 7.72 (13) _______ 23.97 _______ 8.5 ____ 6.1 ____ 35.5 ____ 16.70 _02 __ ( 4)      

_04 __ 13 ____ Mulzy (40.0) _________________ 8.72 ___ 6.20 ____ 8.76 ( 7)** ______ 23.68 ______16.0 ____ 7.2 ____ 23.5 ____ 15.57 _01 __(12)     

_05 __ 17 ____ Emmett Garland (46.0) ______ 6.54 ___ 7.12 ____ 8.29 (10) ________ 21.95 ______31.0 ____ 5.2 ____ 29.5 ____ 21.90 _05 __(26)   

_06 __ 16 ____ Norrance (53.0) ______________6.33 ___ 7.66  ____ 6.96 (17) ________ 20.95 ______32.0 ____ 2.8 ____ 36.5 ____ 23.77 _09 __(22)    

_07 __ 10 ____ DR(S)NO (65.0) ______________ 8.00 ___ 8.08  ____ 4.68 (29) ________ 20.76 ______ 22.0 ____ 2.2 ____ 48.5 ____ 24.23 _10 _(T13)  

_08 __ 19 ____ seaside60 (52.0) _____________3.28 ____9.90 _____ 7.42 (16) ________20.60 ______ 51.0 ____ 0.2 ____ 35.5 ____ 28.90 _t25 __(34) 

_09 __ 03____ Feb1991Blizzard (70.0) ______ 8.20 ___ 9.36 _____ 2.97 (38) ________ 20.53 ______ 20.0 ____ 1.2 ____ 53.5 ____ 24.90 _12 __ ( 9)   

_10 __ 02____ prolongedSnowLover (74.0) _ 8.56 ___ 9.04 _____ 2.39 (41) ________ 19.99 ______ 17.0 ____ 2.1 ____ 57.5 ____ 25.53 _13 __ ( 5)    

_11 __ 14 ____ Leo97t (64.0) ________________ 8.97 ___ 5.75 _____ 4.87 (28) ________19.59 ______ 12.0 ____ 7.8 ____ 47.5 ____ 22.43 _06 __(T6)   

_12 __ 12 ____ DiagonalRedLine (65.0) ______6.41 ___ 8.58 _____ 4.58 (30) ________19.57 ______ 32.0 ____ 2.2 ____ 48.5 ____ 27.57 _t20 __(21)  

_13 __ 22 ____ Roger J Smith (53.7) _________ 9.34 ____ 2.94 _____ 6.77 (18) _______19.05 ______ 10.0 ____18.6 ____ 37.2 ____ 21.93 _07 __(17)  

_14 __ 01 ____ jonboy (81.0) ________________ 8.04 ___ 9.58 _____ 1.14 (48) ________ 18.76 ______ 22.0 ____ 0.8 ____ 64.5 ____ 29.10 _27 __(11)    

_15 __ 05 ____ summer8906 (80.0) _________ 9.60 ___ 7. 76 _____ 1.26 (47) _______ 18.62 ________ 7.0 ____ 2.8 ____ 63.5 ____ 24.43 _11 __( 3)   

_16 __ 07 ____ Midlands Ice Age (76.0) ______6.84 ___10.00 _____ 1.66 (44)^ ______ 18.50 ______ 27.0 ____ 0.2 ____ 59.5 ____ 28.90 _t25 __(16)  

_17 __ 06 ____ Jeff C (78.0) __________________ 8.08 ___ 8.88 ______ 1.50 (46) _______ 18.46 ______ 22.0 ____ 2.2 ____ 61.5 ____ 28.57 _24 _(T13)  

_18 __ 35 ____ Weather Observer (38.0) ____ 2.75 ____6.94 ______ 8.75 ( 8)^_______ 18.44 ______ 53.0 ____ 5.8 ____ 21.5 ____ 26.77 _16 __(44) 

_19 __ 39 ____ snowray (37.5) ______________ 2.57 ___ 6.36 _______ 9.24 ( 4)** ______18.17 ______ 54.0 ____ 6.8 ____ 21.0 ____ 27.27 _19 _(T46)  

_20 __ 11 ____ virtualsphere (78.0) _________ 5.69 ___ 9.68  ______ 1.60 (45) ________ 16.97 ______ 36.0 ____ 0.8 ____ 61.5 ____ 32.77 _33 __(27)   

_21 __ 24 ____ Reef (58.0) ___________________9.28 ___ 1.45 _______ 6.01 (22) ________16.74 ______ 10.0 ___ 25.2 ____ 41.5 ____ 25.57 _14 __(T23)  

_22 __ 48 __Thundery Wintry Showers (32.7) _ 4.36 ___ 2.46 _______ 9.70 ( 2)^ _______16.52 ______ 45.7 ___ 19.3 ____ 16.2 ____ 27.07 _18 __(49)  

_23 __ 33 ____ Polar Gael (56.5) _____________4.88 ___ 4.94 _______ 6.39 (20) _______ 16.21 ______ 41.8  ___ 10.3 ____ 40.0 ____ 30.70 _30 __(35)  

_24 __ 21 ____ Stationary Front (68.0) ______ 7.69 ___ 5.14 ________3.34 (37) _______ 16.17 ______ 23.0 ____ 9.8 _____ 51.5 ____ 28.10 _23 __(20)  

_25 __ 20 ____  J 10 (70.0) ___________________ 8.59 ___ 4.50 _______ 2.87 (39) ________15.96 ______17.0 ___ 12.2 _____ 53.5 ____ 27.57 _t20__(18)

_26 __ 27 ____ noname_weather (60.0) _____3.56 ___ 6.60 ________ 5.53 (25) ________15.69 ______49.0 ____ 6.2 _____ 43.5 ____ 32.90 _34 __(40)   

_27 __ 28 ____ freeze (60.0) _________________5.53 ___ 4.60 ________ 5.43 (26) ________15.56 ______36.0 ___ 12.2 _____ 43.5 ____ 30.57 _29 __(33) 

_28 __ 15 ____ EdStone (85.0) _______________5.77 ___ 8.78  _______ 0.89 (50) ________15.44 ______ 36.0 ____ 2.2 _____ 68.5 ____ 35.57 _38 __(28)   

_29 __ 36 ____ SteveB (58.0) ________________ 7.18 ___ 2.26  _______ 5.91 (23) ________15.35 ______ 25.0 ___ 22.2 _____41.5 ____ 29.57 _28 _(T29)  

_30 __ 34 ____ daniel* (60.0) ________________ 4.24 ___ 5.35 _______ 5.33 (27) ________ 14.92 ______ 46.0 ____ 7.8 _____ 43.5 ____ 32.43 _32 __(36)   

_31 __ 55 ____ Godber1 (44.0) ______________ 1.68 ___ 3.60 ________ 8.48 ( 9) ________ 13.76 ______ 58.0 ___ 14.2 _____ 27.5 ____ 33.23 _35 __(55)  

_32 __ 32 ____ BlastFromThePast (67.0) ____ 1.90 ___ 7.98 ________ 3.73 (34) ________13.61 ______ 57.0 ____ 2.2 _____ 50.5 ____ 36.57 _42 __(45)  

_33 __ 18 ____ Weather26 (107.0) ___________ 9.74 ___ 3.70 _______ 0.13 (56) ________13.57 _______ 6.0 ____ 14.2 ____ 90.5 ____ 36.90 _43 __( 8.)  

_34 __ 49 ____ dancerwithwings (57.0) ______6.03 ___ 0.74 _______ 6.20 (21) ________12.97 ______ 34.0 ____ 33.8 ____ 40.5 ____ 36.10 _t39__(51)  

_35 __ 25 ____ Don (76.0) ___________________ 8.89 ___ 1.81 _______ 2.09 (43) ________12.79 ______ 12.0 ____ 23.2 ____ 59.5 ____ 31.57 _31 __(T23)  

_36 __ 67 ____ davehsug (35.0) _____________ 1.36 ___ 1.63  _______ 9.62 ( 3) ________ 12.61 ______ 58.0 ____ 24.2 ____ 18.5 ____ 33.57 _36 __(61) 

_37 __ 37 ____ Mapantz (68.0) ______________ 1.60 ___ 7.44 _______ 3.44 (36) ________12.48 _______ 58.0 _____ 3.2 ____ 51.5 ____ 37.57 _45 __(48)                  

_38 __ 23 ____ Summer 18 (88.0) ___________ 9.36 ___ 2.36 _______ 0.64 (52) ________12.36 _______ 10.0 ____ 22.2 ____ 71.5 ____ 34.57 _37 __(19)  

_39 __ 42 ____ Wold Topper (65.0) __________ 5.13 ___ 2.54 _______ 4.48 (31) _______ 12.15 _______ 39.0 ____ 21.8 ____ 48.5 ____ 36.43 _41 __(T46) 

_40 __ 40 ____ SLEETY (68.0) ________________ 4.37 ___ 4.14 _______ 3.54 (35) _______ 12.05 _______ 44.0 ____ 12.8 ____ 51.5 ____ 36.10 _t39 __(42) 

_41 __ 44 ____ shillitocettwo (66.0) __________0.27 ___ 7.27 _______ 4.11 (32) ________11.65 _______ 76.0 _____ 3.8 ____ 49.5 ____ 43.10 _52 __(59)                      

_42 __ 26 ____ John88b ( ----) _______________ 3.08 ___ 8.48 _______ --- --- (---) ________ 11.56 _______ 52.0 _____ 2.2 ____ --- --- ____ 27.10 _17 __(38)  

_43 __ 65 ____ Earthshine (50.0) ____________--- ---____3.14 _______ 7.91 (12) ________ 11.05 ______ --- --- ____ 17.8 ____ 33.5 ____ 25.65 _15  __(25) 

_44 __ 58 ____ The PIT (60.0) _________________ 0.92 ___ 4.04 ______ 5.63 (24) ________10.59 _______ 62.0 ____12.8 ____ 43.5 ____ 39.43 _46 __(56)                 

_45 __ 76 ____ Let It Snow! (36.4) ____________ 1.04 ___ -- -- -- _______ 9.13 ( 5)^ ______10.17 _______ 60.3 ____ -- -- _____ 19.9 ____ 40.10 _47 __(77)             

_46 __ 29 ____ DCee ( -- --) __________________ 10.00 ___ -- -- -- ______ --- --- (---) _______ 10.00 _______ 4.0 ____ -- -- _____ --- --- ____ 4.0 -- -- (T1)

_47 __ 30 ____ Robbie Garrett ( -- --) _________ 9.92 ___ -- -- --  ______ --- --- (---) ________ 9.92________ 4.0 ____ -- -- _____ --- --- ____ 4.0 -- -- (T1) 

_48 __ 31 ____ I Remember Atlantic (112.0) _ 6.10 ___ 3.80 _______ --- --- (---) _________ 9.90 ______33.0  ____ 14.2 ____ --- --- ____ 23.60 _08 _(T29)

_49 __ 53 ____ rwtwm (66.0) _________________4.75 ___ 1.08 _______ 4.01 (33) _________ 9.84 ______ 44.0 ____ 33.2 ____ 49.5 ____ 42.23 _t50 __(58)                     

_50 __ 82 ____ Summer Shower (33.0) _____ --- --- ___ 0.00 ________ 9.81 ( 1)** _______ 9.81 ______--- --- ___  58.2 ____ 16.5 ____ 37.35 _44 __(76) 

_51 __ 38 ____ Summer Blizzard (85.0) ______3.64 ___ 5.34 ________ 0.79 (51) ________ 9.77 ______ 49.0 ____ 8.8 _____ 68.5 ____ 42.10 _49 __(43)                     

_52 __ 43 ____ Mr Maunder (76.0) __________ 1.44 ___ 6.10 _______ 2.19 (42) _________ 9.73 ______ 58.0 ____ 7.2 _____ 59.5 ____ 41.57 _48 __(50)                      

_53 __ 73 ____ syed2878 (52.0) _____________ 1.98 ___ 0.12 ________ 7.52 (15) _________ 9.62 ______ 57.0 ___ 52.8 ____ 35.5 ____ 48.43 _53 __(73)                               

_54 __ --- ____ snowblind (40.0) _____________--- --- ___ -- -- -- ______ 8.86 ( 6)** ________ 8.86 _______ -- -- ____ -- -- ____ 23.5 ____ 23.7 (-- --) (-- --) 

_55 __ 52 ____ Moorlander (72.0) ___________ 3.72 ___ 2.16 _______ 2.59 (40) __________ 8.47 ______ 49.0 ___ 22.2 ____ 55.5 ____ 42.23 _t50 _(53)                       

_56 __ 41 ____ stewfox ( --- ) ________________ 7.05 ___ 1.21 ________ --- --- (---) _________ 8.26 ______ 26.0 ___ 29.8 ____ --- --- ____ 27.90 _22 __(41) 

_57 __ --- ____ WxEnthusiast91 (52.0) ______ --- --- ___ -- -- -- ______ 7.62 (14) __________ 7.62 ______ -- -- ____ -- -- _____ 35.5 ____ 35.50 (-- --) (-- --) 

_58 __ 45 ____ snowboy111 ( --- ) ___________ 7.51 ___ --- --- ______ --- --- (---) __________ 7.51 ______ 24.0 ____ -- -- ____ --- --- ____ 24.00 (-- --) (T31) 

_59 __ 46 ____ Booferking ( --- ) _____________ 7.48 ___ --- --- ______ --- --- (---) __________ 7.48 ______ 24.0 ____ -- -- ____ --- --- ____ 24.00 (-- --) (T31) 

_60 __ 50 ____ Kirkcaldy Weather (96.2) _____ 6.67 ___ --- --- ______ 0.26 (55) __________ 6.93 ______ 27.2 ____ -- -- ____ 79.7 ____ 53.45 _54 (39) 

_61 __ 47 ____ Mark Neal ( --- ) ______________ 6.92 ___ --- --- ______ --- --- (---) __________ 6.92 ______ 27.0 ____ -- -- ____ --- --- ____ 27.00 (-- --) (37) 

_62 __ 51 ____ Tidal Wave ( --- ) _____________ 5.90 ___ --- --- _______ --- --- (---) __________ 5.90 ______ 35.0 ____ -- -- ____ --- --- ____ 35.00 (-- --) (52) 

_63 __ 54 ____ Cumbrian Ice ( --- ) ___________ 5.61 ___ --- --- _______ --- --- (---) _________ 5.61 ______ 36.0 ____ -- -- ____ --- --- ____ 36.00 (-- --) (54) 

_64 __ 56 ____ Stargazer ( --- ) ________________5.26 ___ --- --- ______ --- --- (---) __________ 5.26 ______ 38.0 ____ -- -- ____ --- --- ____ 38.00 (-- --)  (57) 

_65 __ 57 ____ SouthLondonCold ( --- ) ______ 5.00 ___ --- --- _______ --- --- (---) __________5.00 ______ 41.0 ____ -- -- ____ --- --- ____ 41.00 (-- --) (60) 

_66 __ 59 ____ catbrainz ( --- ) _______________ -- -- ____ 4.80 _______ --- --- (---) _________ 4.80 ______ --- --- ___ 11.2 ____ --- --- ____ 11.20 (-- --)  (10)

_67 __ 60 ____ Kentspur ( --- ) _______________ 4.49 ___ --- --- _______ --- --- (---) __________ 4.49  ______ 45.5 ____ -- -- ____ --- --- ____ 45.50 (-- --) (62) 

_68 __ 61 ____ Ross Andrew Hemphill (---) __ 4.11 ___ --- --- ______ --- --- (---) ___________ 4.11 ______ 47.0 ____ -- -- ____ --- --- ____ 47.00 (-- --) (T63) 

_69 __ 62 ____ Andrew Burden ( --- ) ________ 4.03 ___ --- --- ______ --- --- (---) ___________ 4.03 ______ 47.0 ____ -- -- ____ --- --- ____ 47.00 (-- --) (T63) 

_70 __ 63 ____ Fozfoster ( --- ) _______________ 3.95 ___ --- --- ______ --- --- (---) ___________ 3.95 ______ 47.0 ____ -- -- ____ --- --- ____ 47.00 (-- --) (T63) 

_71 __ 64 ____ S Bragg ( --- ) _________________ 3.36 ___ --- --- _______ --- --- (---) __________ 3.36 ______ 51.0 ____ -- -- _____ --- --- ____ 51.00 (-- --) (67) 

_72 __ 66 ____ sunny_vale ( --- ) _____________ 3.00 ___ --- --- _______ --- --- (---) __________ 3.00 ______ 52.0 ____ -- -- _____ --- --- ____ 52.00 (-- --) (68) 

_73 __ 69 ____ Frigid (90.0) __________________ 2.06 ___ 0.54 ________ 0.39 (54) _________ 2.99 ______ 57.0 ____ 42.2 _____ 73.5 ____ 57.57 _55 (66)  

_74 __ 68 ____ icykev ( --- ) ___________________2.83 ___ --- --- ________ --- --- (---) _________ 2.83 ______ 53.0 ____ -- -- ______ --- --- ____ 53.00 (-- --) (70) 

_75 __ 70 ____ vizzy2004 ( --- ) _______________ 2.49 ___ --- --- _________ --- --- (---) _________ 2.49 ______ 54.0 ____ -- -- _____ --- --- ____ 54.00 (-- --) (T71) 

_76 __ 71 ____ coldest winter ( --- ) __________ 2.41 ___ --- --- _________ --- --- (---) _________ 2.41 ______ 54.0 ____ -- -- _____ --- --- ____ 54.00 (-- --) (T71) 

_77 __ 72 ____ Matt Tarrant ( --- ) ___________ 2.19 ___ --- --- _________ --- --- (---) __________ 2.19 ______ 56.0 ____ -- -- _____ --- --- ____ 56.00 (-- --) (74) 

_78 __ 78 ____ Metwatch (82.0) ______________0.66 ____ --- --- ________ 1.01 (49) __________ 1.67 ______ 68.0 ____ -- -- _____ 65.5 _____ 66.75 _57 (80) 

_79 __ 74 ____ pegg24 ( --- ) _________________ 1.52 ____ --- --- ________ --- --- (---) __________ 1.52 ______ 58.0 ____ -- -- _____ --- --- ____ 58.00 (-- --) (75) 

_80 __ 75 ____ chilly milly (129.6) ____________ 0.47 ___ 0.84 _________ 0.00 (57) __________ 1.31 ______ 71.1 ____ 33.8 ____ 113.1 ____ 72.67 _58 (69)  

_81 __ 80 ____ Neil N (88.0) _________________ 0.00 ___ 0.30 _________ 0.54 (53) ___________0.84 ______ 80.0 ____ 42.8 ____ 71.5 _____ 64.77 _56 (78) 

_82 __ 77 ____ Captain Shortwave ( --- ) _____ 0.79 ____ --- --- ________ --- --- (---) __________0.79 ______ 66.0 ____ -- -- _____ --- --- _____ 66.00 (-- --) (79) 

_83 __ 79 ____ Connor Bailey Degnan ( --- ) _ 0.40 ___ --- --- ________ --- --- (---) ____________0.40 ______ 75.0 ____ -- -- _____--- --- _____ 75.00 (-- --) (81) 

_84 __ 81 ____ Warwickshire Lad ____________0.14 ___ --- --- _________ --- --- (---) ___________ 0.14 ______ 78.0 ____ -- -- ____ --- --- _____ 78.00 (-- --) (82) 

 _________________________________________

^ late one day, 0.3 penalty

** rank moves up one due to other forecasters' late penalties (but these are scored from a lower scoring level)

NOTE regarding average error ranks. These were awarded to 58 entrants who were in two or three contests, and going forward, 2/4, 3/5, 3/6 then three or fewer missed up to 9/12 will be the minimum standard. 

-------------------------------------------------------------------- // ---------------------------------------------------

RANK (prev) __ NORMAL (or Consensus) _________ Dec, Jan Pts __ Feb Pts ___ Total ___ Dec err_Jan err,Feb err __ avg err (rank) (prev)

 8.1 _(6.0) ____1981-2010 average 66.5 mm_______ 9.81 __ 7.16 ___ 3.82 ___ 20.59 _____ 4.6 ____ 4.8 ____ 50.0 ____ 19.80 (rank 4.2, prev 2.8)

 9.9 _(0.8) ___ 1993-2022 average 74.9 mm_______ 9.85 __ 7.88 ___ 2.31 ___ 20.04 _____ 3.5 ____ 2.4 ____ 58.4 ____ 21.43 (rank 4.8 prev 0.74)

10.2_(5.4) ___ 1991-2020 average 72.4 mm_______10.00 _ 7.32 ___ 2.55 ___ 19.87 _____ 1.6 ____ 3.6 ____ 55.9 ____ 20.37 (rank 4.4, prev 0.65)

13.0_(17.4)___ consensus 65.0 mm _______________ 5.13 __ 9.23 ___ 4.68 ___ 19.04 _____39.0 ____ 1.7____ 48.5 ____ 29.73 (rank 28.2 prev 28.3)

===================================================

February was a better month for consensus which has narrowed the large gap that existed after Dec-Jan, with normals ahead of most forecasters. The normals have dropped back a few ranks this month. 

Edited March 5, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

Normal service finally resumed with EWP posted for both Jan (97.8 mm) and Feb (16.5 mm). No changes required in scoring tables for JAN and very minor changes to FEB errors, no changes to scores as already posted. Have edited in a confirmation for JAN scoring and removed the version 1 (95.1 mm) scoring table.