February 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

One below normal month and a decent ten-day cold spell in that month, probably places this more in the middle echelon of recent winters. Very little snowfall even so. Given the economic situation, this probably wasn't the winter for anything spectacular anyway, right? 

[Roger J Smith]

Post moved to end of month 1st March around 1530h. 

 

 

Edited March 1, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 7.3C +2.6C above normal. Rainfall 4.7mm 7.2% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

6.7c to the 25th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

A finish of 6.4 or 6.5 degrees most probable.

How are we doing on the rainfall stakes, one of the driest on record I imagine.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP was 13.5 mm after 24th, probably 13.8 mm or so now, and will finish very close to 14 mm. That would be 10th driest Feb since EWP began in 1766.

[damianslaw]

11 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP was 13.5 mm after 24th, probably 13.8 mm or so now, and will finish very close to 14 mm. That would be 10th driest Feb since EWP began in 1766.

Thanks, a Top tenner, no surprise there.

[Summer Sun]

6.6c to the 26th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 7.2C +2.4C above average. Rainfall unchanged.

Final figure looks like it will be 7.1C unless we get either a very cold night or rather cold day.

[Summer Sun]

6.5c to the 27th

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

6.5c to the 27th

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

6.4C final figure this month?

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 7.1C +2.3C above average. Rainfall 7.2mm 11% of the monthly average.

Looking to finish at 7C +2.2C above average. Still the second warmest Feb on record for us.  and there may have been enough showers today to make this the third driest on record.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield down to 7.1C +2.3C above average. Rainfall 7.2mm 11% of the monthly average.

Looking to finish at 7C +2.2C above average. Still the second warmest Feb on record for us.  and there may have been enough showers today to make this the third driest on record.

I wonder what the synoptics of this month would result in CET wise July and August, record heat? Bone dry?

[The PIT]

9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I wonder what the synoptics of this month would result in CET wise July and August, record heat? Bone dry?

Bone dry and warm .

[Roger J Smith]

Will keep this out of the March thread until the forecast entry period has expired on 3rd ...

coldest starts to March (1-10 CET)

(this list only includes 1772-2022, with daily v2.0 data used ... Mar 1674 had outcome of 1.0, wonder what its value on 10th was?)

(cutoff is 2.0 to 1947 and coldest values since 1947 added with ranks for these 1948-2022 - coldest five recent are in main list)

for outcomes (end of March CET) __ rank A is the rank overall 1659-2022, rank B is within the daily data interval 1772-2022

... these ranks are only tracked to t29 coldest (3.2)

Rank __ Year ___ CET 1-10 ___ outcome (rank A, B)

_ 01 ___ 1786 ___-1.6 ______ 2.1 (t7, t4)

_ 02 ___ 1947 ___-1.0 ______ 3.6

_t03 ___ 1886 ___-0.1 ______ 4.2 

_t03 ___ 1892 ___-0.1 ______ 2.7 (t12, t9)

_ 05 ___ 1785 ___ 0.2 ______ 1.2 (2nd, 1st) ___ lowest running mean -0.2 on 14th

_t06 ___ 1800 ___ 0.3 ______ 4.0

_t06 ___ 1909 ___ 0.3 ______ 3.7

_t06 ___ 1931 ___ 0.3 ______ 4.2

_t09 ___ 1858 ___ 0.4 ______ 4.9

_t09 ___ 1965 ___ 0.4 ______ 5.3 ___ also ranks 1st in coldest since 1947

_ 11 ___ 1845 ___ 0.5 ______ 2.0 (t5, 3rd) ___ lowest running mean -0.7 on 17th

_t12 ___ 1796 ___ 0.6 ______ 4.2

_t12 ___ 1814 ___ 0.6 ______ 2.9 (t18, t13) ___ lowest running mean 0.4 on 19th

_t12 ___ 1970 ___ 0.6 ______ 3.7 ___ also ranks 2nd in coldest since 1947

_t15 ___ 1820 ___ 0.7 ______ 4.7

_t15 ___ 1946 ___ 0.7 ______ 5.1

_t17 ___ 1783 ___ 1.2 ______ 3.3

_t17 ___ 1788 ___ 1.2 ______ 3.6

_t17 ___ 1843 ___ 1.2 ______ 5.6

_t17 ___ 1917 ___ 1.2 ______ 3.2 (t29, t18)

_ 21 ___ 1889 ___ 1.4 ______ 4.7

_ 22 ___ 1916 ___ 1.5 ______ 3.3

_t23 ___ 1839 ___ 1.6 ______ 4.2

_t23 ___ 1955 ___ 1.6 ______ 3.2 (t29, t18) ___ also ranks 3rd in coldest since 1947

_ 25 ___ 1789 ___ 1.7 ______ 2.1 (t7, t4)

_t26 ___ 1807 ___ 1.8 ______ 2.9 (t18, t13)

_t26 ___ 1962 ___ 1.8 ______ 2.8 _(t14, t11) __ also ranks 4th in coldest since 1947

_t28 ___ 1866 ___ 1.9 ______ 4.8

_t28 ___ 1942 ___ 1.9 ______ 5.2

_t30 ___ 1937 ___ 2.0 ______ 3.6

_t30 ___ 1971 ___ 2.0 ______ 4.9 ___ also ranks 5th in coldest since 1947

 

Top 20 cold months not in the above list:

(1883 was 2.5 and finished 1.9) _ 4th coldest (2nd coldest in daily data)

(1837 was 3.3 and finished 2.3) _ 9th coldest (t6 coldest in daily data)

(1784 was 4.5 and finished 2.7) _ t12 coldest (t9 coldest in daily data)

(1865 was 3.8 and finished 2.9) _ t18 coldest (t13 coldest in daily data)

 

cold months of March before daily data, so the following cannot be ranked above (among coldest 25 only)

1674 finished 1.0 (coldest)

1748 finished 1.8 (3rd coldest)

1667 finished 2.0 (t5th coldest)

1747, 1770 finished 2.5 (t10 coldest)

1701, 1729 finished 2.8 (t14 coldest)

1675, 1684, 1693, 1709 finished 3.0 (t21 coldest)

 

(coldest starts 1-10 since 1947 and not below 2.0 _ five colder than 1949 are in the list above)

_ 06 ___ 1949 ___ 2.1 ______ 5.1

_t07 ___ 1951 ___ 2.7 ______ 4.1

_t07 ___ 1953 ___ 2.7 ______ 5.6

_t07 ___ 1964 ___ 2.7 ______ 4.3

_t07 ___ 1969 ___ 2.7 ______ 3.4

_ 11 ___ 1987 ___ 2.8 ______ 4.1

_ 12 ___ 2010 ___ 3.0 ______ 6.2

_ 13 ___ 2005 ___ 3.1 ______ 7.1

_ 14 ___ 2006 ___ 3.2 ______ 5.0 __ running mean 1.0 for 1-6, 3.2 by 23rd, 3.0 sev'l days between 10th and 23rd

_t15 ___ 1976 ___ 3.4 ______ 4.8

_t15 ___ 1986 ___ 3.4 ______ 5.0

_t15 ___ 2018 ___ 3.4 ______ 5.0

_ 18 ___ 1974 ___ 3.5 ______ 5.7

_ 19 ___ 1954 ___ 3.7 ______ 5.8

_t20 ___ 1958 ___ 3.9 ______ 3.7 __ lowest running mean 2.6 23rd

_t20 ___ 1968 ___ 3.9 ______ 6.3

_t20 ___ 1995 ___ 3.9 ______ 5.5

_t23 ___ 2011 ___ 4.0 ______ 6.8

_t23 ___ 2016 ___ 4.0 ______ 5.8 

(2013 was 4.7 by 10th, ended 2.8) _t14 coldest

(2021 was 4.6 by 10th, ended 7.3)

______________________________________________________________

This study shows a general warming trend in March, as most of the cold starts for March were in the era ending with 1947.

The colder more recent years are mostly in the range of 2.0 to 4.0 (only five are colder), which used to be fairly close to average in the 18th-19th centuries. 

We'll see if 2023 even cracks the recent cold list, but in any case, the outcomes are scattered over quite a wide range, a few of these cold starts flipped to very warm temperatures near the end (like 1946, 1965, 1968). Others remained cold to the end. But most warmed slightly into the 3.5 to 5.0 range. Of the coldest 31, the median outcome was 4.2 C. Of the nineteen additional cold starts above 2.0 in recent decades, the median outcome was 5.1.

__ I will move this post over to March around the 3rd when the entry period is expiring __ 

[Summer Sun]

Confirmed as 6.5c

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/cet_mean_2023.txt

[Scorcher]

17 hours ago, damianslaw said:

I wonder what the synoptics of this month would result in CET wise July and August, record heat? Bone dry?

Probably not record breaking but certainly warm/very warm and dry- we haven't had a lot of records threatened for warmth in the month.

Probably something like July 2013?

[LetItSnow!]

2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Probably not record breaking but certainly warm/very warm and dry- we haven't had a lot of records threatened for warmth in the month.

Probably something like July 2013?

If you look back at the synoptics and ascertain what conditions the same pattern would have brought it probably would have been something like:

 

1st-9th: Generally dry and warm with a few cloudy weather fronts and rain for the north but fine and dry on most days with temperatures in the low to mid-twenties.

10th-14th: High pressure building from the south and long fetched southerly winds, probably a heat spike although longer than last year. Very hot, dry and sunny with temperatures ranging from the low to upper-thirties (or maybe even low-forties).

15th-20th: A cooler breakdown from the Atlantic with very few storms, generally changeable but still warm in the south with days in the mid-twenties sometimes. Cool and unsettled further north and some wet days. Dry in the south mostly.

21st-28th: High pressure returning but within cool air so dry and fine but cloudy in the east. In the west temperatures in the upper-teens and low-twenties, colder further east. Some unusually cool nights but gradually warming up by day.

 

Would have been like a dry and sunny version of July 2015 in that it would have contained very hot weather but probably some quite autumnal feeling days at the end. Probably would have had a C.E.T. in the 17s. 

@damianslaw this answers your question too hopefully!

[Roger J Smith]

Feb 2023 CET and EWP contest ranks _ from table of forecasts (6.5 CET)

(CET scoring subject to confirmation by J10 in contest scoring report)

 

Best combined shown to totals of 60 ranks, ahead of consensus (62)

 

Rank _ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (order of entry) _____ EWP rank __ best combined (rank)

_ 01 __ 6.5 __ 65.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 24 ) ____________________29 ____ 30 (seventh best combined)

_ 02 __ 6.4 _ --- --- _ Typhoon John ( 21 ) _______________ --- 

_ 03 __ 6.4 __ 64.0 _ Leo97t ( 23 ) ______________________28 ____ 31 (eighth best combined)

_ 04 __ 6.4 __ 76.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 26 ) ________________42 ____ 46 (14th best combined)

_ 05 __ 6.7 __ 53.7 _ Roger J Smith ( 20 ) _______________ 18 ____ 23 (tied second best combined) 

_ 06 __ 6.3 __ 58.0 _ Reef ( 29 ) ________________________22 ____ 28 (tied fifth best combined) 

_ 07 __ 6.3 __ 70.0 _ Feb1991Blizzard ( 32 ) ___________ 38 ____ 45 (13th best combined)

_ 08 __ 6.2 __ 80.0 _ summer8906 ( 08 ) _______________47 ____ 55 (24th best combined) 

_ 09 __ 6.2 __ 52.0 _ Weather Enthusiast91 ( 11 )  _____14 ____ 23 (tied second best combined) 

_ 10 __ 6.2 _ --- --- _ Summer Sun ( 19 ) ________________ ---

_ 11 __ 6.2 _ --- --- _ Mark Bayley ( 35 ) ________________ ---

_ 12 __ 6.1 __ 57.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 15 ) ___________21 ____ 33 (ninth best combined) 

_ 13 __ 6.9 __ 68.0 _ SLEETY ( 25 ) _____________________ 35 ____ 48 (tied 16th best combined)

_ 14 __ 6.1 __ 35.0 _ davehsug ( 34 ) ___________________ 3 _____ 17 (first best combined) 

_ 15 __ 6.0 __ 50.0 _ Earthshine ( 03 ) __________________12 ____ 27 (fourth best combined) 

_ 16 __ 7.0 __ 67.0 _ Blast From The Past ( 06 ) _________34 ____ 50 (20th best combined)

_ 17 __ 6.0 __ 66.0 _ shillitocettwo ( 22 ) _______________ 32 ____ 49 (tied 18th best combined)  

_ 18 __ 6.0 __ 65.0 _ DiagonalRedLine ( 27 ) ___________ 30 ____ 48 (tied 16th best combined) 

_ 19 __ 5.9 __ 66.0 _ rwtwm ( 30 ) ______________________ 33 ____ 52 (23rd best combined) 

_ 20 __ 5.8 __ 60.0 _ The PIT ( 14 ) ______________________ 24 ____ 44 (twelfth best combined)

_ 21 __ 7.2 __ 53.0 _ Norrance ( 28 ) ____________________17 ____ 38 (tied tenth best combined)

_ 22 __ 5.8 __ 82.0 _ Metwatch ( 33 ) ___________________ 49 

_ 23 __ 5.7 _ 129.6 _ Chilly Milly ( 05 ) __________________ 57 

_ 24 __ 5.7 __ 85.0 _ summer blizzard ( 39 ) ____________ 51

_ 26 __ 5.7 __ 32.7 _ Thundery Wintry Showers ( L1-3 ) __ 2 ____ 28 (tied fifth best combined)  

_ 25 __ 5.6 _ --- --- _ damianslaw ( 37 ) __________________ ---

_ 27 __ 5.6 __ 76.0 _ Don ( 54 ) __________________________ 43

_ 29 __ 5.6 __ 76.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( L1-1 ) ___________ 44

_ 28 __ 5.5 __ 90.0 _ Frigid ( 36 ) _________________________ 54

_ 30 __ 5.5 __ 55.0 _ February1978 ( 61 ) ________________ 19 ___ 49 (tied 18th best combined) 

_ 31 __ 5.4 __ 65.0 _ Wold Topper ( 56 )__________________ 31 

_(32) __5.35 _ 65.0 _ consensus _________________________ 29

_ 32 __ 5.3 __ --- --- _ Man With Beard ( 38 ) _____________ ---

_ 33 __ 5.2 __107.0 _ Weather26 ( 02 ) __________________ 56

_ 34 __ 5.2 __ 60.0 _ noname_weather ( 47 ) ____________ 25 ___ 59 (26th best combined)

_ 35 __ 5.2 __ 72.0 _ Moorlander ( 57 ) __________________ 40

_ 36 __ 7.9 __ 85.0 _ Ed Stone ( 07 ) _____________________ 50

_ 37 __ 5.1 __ 58.0 _ SteveB ( 41 ) _______________________ 23 ___ 60 (27th best combined)

_ 38 __ 5.1 __ 37.5 _ snowray ( 59 ) ______________________ 4 ___ 42 (eleventh best combined)

_ (36)__ 5.1 __ 74.9 _ 1993-2022 average __________________ (41.5)

_ 39 __ 5.0 __ 78.0 _ virtualsphere ( 10 ) ________________ 45

_ (39) _ 5.0 __ 72.4 _ 1991-2020 average _________________(40.2)

_ 40 __ 4.9 __ 48.0 _ Cymro ( 31 ) _______________________ 11 __ 51 (tied 21st best combined) 

_ 41 __ 4.9 __ 60.0 _ freeze ( 51 ) ________________________26

_ 42 __ 4.9 __ 68.0 _ Mapantz ( 52 ) _____________________ 36

_ 44 __ 4.9 __ 38.0 _ Weather Observer ( L1-2 ) __________ 7 __ 51 (tied 21st best combined) 

_ 43 __ 8.2 __ 52.0 _ syed2878 ( 12 ) ____________________ 15 __ 58 (25th best combined)

_ 45 __ 4.8 __ 70.0 _ J 10 ( 49 ) ___________________________ 39

_ 46 __ 4.7 __ 33.0 _ Summer Shower ( 18 ) ______________ 1 __ 47 (15th best combined) 

_ 47 __ 4.7 __ 74.0 _ prolongedSnowLover ( 55 ) ________ 41

_ 48 __ 4.6 __ 52.0 _ Bobd29 ( 01 ) ______________________ 13

_ 49 __ 4.6 __ --- --- _Rob 79812010 ( 17 ) _______________ ---

_ 50 __ 4.5 __ 52.0 _ seaside60 ( 43 ) ___________________ 16

_ 51 __ 4.5 __ --- --- _ Quicksilver1989 ( 53 ) ____________ ---

_ 52 __ 4.4 __  78.0 _ Jeff C ( 40 ) _______________________ 46

_ (52) _ 4.4 __ 66.5 _ 1981-2010 average ________________(33.5)

_ 53 __ 4.1 __ 88.0 _ Summer18 ( 09 ) _________________ 52 

_ 54 __ 4.1 __ 81.0 _ jonboy ( 42 ) ______________________48

_ 55 __ 4.0 __ 40.0 _ mulzy ( 50 ) _______________________ 8

_ 56 __ 3.9 __ 88.0 _ NeilN ( 13 ) _______________________ 53

_ 57 __ 3.9 __ 68.0 _ Stationary Front ( 60 ) ____________37

_ 58 __ 3.8 __ 46.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 44 ) ____________10 

_ 60 __ 3.7 __ 36.4 _ Let It Snow! ( L1-4 ) _______________ 5

_ 59 __ 3.6 __ 44.0 _ Godber1 ( 48 ) ____________________ 9

_ 61 __ 3.5 __ 56.5 _ Polar Gael ( 45 ) __________________ 20

_ 62 __ 3.3 __ --- --- _ Walsall Wood Snow ( 46 ) ________---

_ 63 __ 2.9 __ --- --- _ Kentish Man ( 62 ) _______________ ---

_ 64 __ 2.7 __ 96.2 _ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 04 ) __________55

_ 65 __ 2.7 __ 60.0 _ daniel* ( 58 ) _____________________ 27 

_ 66 __ 2.1 __ 40.0 _ snowblind ( 16 ) ___________________ 6

 ============================================

(scoring jogs by one rank at late entries, for the sole purpose of determining best combined, as an approximation of what happens inside the more complicated CET scoring system, when late entries are in top ten they would appear one rank higher, later the scoring in the file will push them down by at least rank, but that has not occurred this month anyway ... EWP scoring ranks have a late penalty factored in as shown, effectively it moves late forecasts down by one rank.)

 

 

 

Edited March 1, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[damianslaw]

Surprised we held on 6.5 degrees, despite some cold nights in the CET zone, the persistant mild maxima has had a marked impact on the final figure. A forgettable month overall though, the dryness the main feature but that won't be remembered much. Also completely snowless.

[Don]

3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Surprised we held on 6.5 degrees, despite some cold nights in the CET zone, the persistant mild maxima has had a marked impact on the final figure. A forgettable month overall though, the dryness the main feature but that won't be remembered much. Also completely snowless.

I've pretty much forgotten it already!!

[J10]

Files

Winter Final Result (PDF) -> Feb 2023 Winter.pdf

Overall (PDF) -> Feb 2023 Summary Overall.pdf

Summary (PDF) -> Feb 2023 Summary.pdf

Excel full details -> Feb 23 CET.xlsx

Monthly

One player DR(S)NO got 6.5c spot on with 3 other players only 0.1c out. Typhoon John, Leo97t and Mr Maunder.

In total 18 were within 0.5c.

Seasonal

The result of winter 2022/23 shows 

feb1991blizzard was 1st (from 5th)
Leo97t was 2nd (from 8th)
DR(S)NO was 3rd (from 17th)

Overall

The overall scores very closely match the seasonal scores.

 

 

 

Edited March 1, 2023 by J10

[Roger J Smith]

Report on Normals and Consensus scoring in CET and EWP

So, after the first quarter, how are the recent normals and our consensus (based on median forecast values) doing? 

Better than me, how about ye? 

(and ye and ye ...)

EWP Rankings are decimal, based on where the scores fall relative to forecasters with integer-based ranks. As an example, Dec 1981-2010 rank is 2.3, meaning that the error was about 30% of the way between 2nd and 3rd ranked forecasters. A ranking less than 1.0 indicates a forecast better than our top ranked forecast (the decimal being the distance between zero error and that forecast's error). CET ranks are always tied with earliest forecaster to post a similar value (by error, it might be the reflection as for example if 4.9 has an error of 1.5 for Dec, so does 1.9, so the robot rank is the same as the rank of the earliest of 1.9 or 4.9). 

 

_________________________________ Forecasts _______________ Errors ___________ Rank _______ 

"Robot" Forecaster _________ CET ___ EWP ___________ CET __ EWP ____ CET __ EWP 

1981-2010 average DEC ___ 4.5 ____ 97.4 ____________ +1.1 __-4.6 _____ 55 ___ 2.3

1981-2010 average JAN ___ 4.4 _____ 93.0 ____________ -0.8 __ -4.8 _____ 40 ___ 18.5

1981-2010 average FEB ___ 4.4 _____ 66.5 ___________ -2.1 __ +52.5 ____ 40 ___ 7.0

----------------

1991-2020 average DEC ___ 4.8 ____103.6 ____________ +1.4 __+1.6 _____ 63 ___ 0.4

1991-2020 average JAN ___ 4.7 _____ 94.2 _____________ -0.5 __ -3.6 _____ 28 ___ 17.8

1991-2020 average FEB ___ 5.0 _____ 72.4 _____________ -1.5 __ 58.4 ____ 39 ___ 40.3

---------------

1992-2021 average DEC ___ 4.9 ____105.5 _____________ +1.5 __+3.5 _____ 65 ___ 0.9

1993-2022 average JAN ___ 4.7 _____ 95.4 _____________ -0.5 __ -2.4 _____ 28 ___ 13.5

1993-2022 average FEB ___ 5.1 _____ 74.9 _____________-1.4 __ +60.5 ____ 36 ___ 41.4

-----------------

consensus DEC ____________ 3.5 ____ 63.0 ______________ +0.1 __-39.0 _____ 04 __ 39.0

consensus JAN _____________5.1 ____ 99.5 _______________-0.1 __ +1.7 _____ 1.5 __ 5.9

consensus FEB ____________ 5.4 ____ 65.0 _______________-1.1 __ +51.0 ___ 29 ___ 31.0

 

1981-2010 mean of 3 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________1.33 __20.63 ___ 66 ___ 8.9

1991-2020 mean of 3 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________1.13 __21.20 ___ 51 ___10.9

1993-2022 mean of 3 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________1.13 __22.13 ___ 51 ___11.7

consensus mean of 3 mo __ ___ ___ _____ ________________ 0.43 _ 30.57 ___ 16 __ 42.5

(note mean of errors is mean of absolute errors, not actual errors)

-----------------------------------------------------------------

ANALYSIS: Our consensus is doing better in CET than EWP, and normals are doing well in EWP but not very well in CET. 

The comparisons will be more valid perhaps after 4-6 months when infrequent entrants are no longer ranked for CET average errors. I added four ranks to the EWP to include now-excluded 1/3-contest forecasters so that the comparisons are similar (four excluded average errors are lower than the robotics and all the other 1/3 are higher). A larger number of them have a lower error than the consensus average resulting in the addition of 11 rather than 4 to that stat. 

(also note 3 month rank is rank for average errors only, not scores, which are not calculated for CET)

So far there is no particular optimal strategy which is good because it makes the contest more of a test of actual skills rather than feeding into a preferred strategy. You're welcome. 

[Roger J Smith]

Combined CET and EWP ranks _ Winter Season 2022-23

CET and EWP scoring methods have converged with changes that I made to EWP scoring. And since you cannot drop out of the CET scoring table until March (if you make any forecast you can not miss more than two), then that aspect is also comparable since EWP scores are always blended into one table regardless of participation. I think the average error aspect is still a bit unbalanced but to add another layer of similarity, I will rate EWP ranks as 3/4 points total and 1/4 average error rank, more of a 50-50 balance in reality since points are basically a reflection of error within each month. For those (1 of 3 contests entered) who are unranked for average error, I take a value which would apply to the lone error. 

So that being said, here's the current calculation of average CET and EWP "complex" ranks for the winter season. The CET rankings are directly derived from J10's PDF for overall scoring.

Non-EWP (CET only) entrants are listed in a separate column at an equal pace for average rank and their CET rank only.

A number of one-time entrants (mostly Dec) who have not yet entered March will lose ranking status for CET if they do not enter March; these forecasters are tagged with .. ONE CONTEST WILL EXIT FIRST DIV CET IF NO MARCH ENTRY. 

 

Rank__CET rank_ EWP rank_EWP adj rank__FORECASTER _____avg rank_________ CET only 

f01 ___ 01 ____ 09 ____ 9.75 _______ Feb1991Blizzard ___ 5.38

f01 ___ 03 ____ 07 ____ 7.75 _______ DR(S)NO ___________ 5.38 __________ 04 __ Summer Sun

03 ____ 02 ____ 11 ____ 9.75 _______ Leo97t _____________5.88 __________ 06 __ Man with Beard

04 ____ 07 ____ 06 ____ 6.75 _______ Norrance __________ 6.88

05 ____ 20 ____ 02 _____ 2.5 ________ February1978_____11.25 _________ 09 __ Mark Bayley

06 ____ 08 ____ 22 ____ 21.0 __ Thundery Wintry Showers _ 13.50 _________ 12 __ damianslaw   

07 ____ 21 ____ 08 _____ 12.0 ______ seaside60 _________ 16.50 _________ 16 __ Typhoon John   

08 ____ 25 ____ 10 ____ 10.75 ____ prolongedSnowLover_17.88  

09 ____ 18 ____ 21 ____ 19.25 ______ Reef _______________ 18.63 

t10____ 05 ____ 36 _____36.0 _______ davehsug __________ 20.50

t10____ 27 ____ 15 ____ 14.0 ________ summer8906 _____ 20.50

12 ____ 13 ____ 35 ____ 34.0 ________ Don _______________ 23.50

t13____ t47 ____ 01 ____  1.5 ________ cymro _____________ 24.25

t13____t37 ____ 13 ____ 11.5 ________ Roger J Smith _____ 24.25

15 ____ 10 ____ 37 ____ 38.75 _______ Mapantz __________ 24.38

t16____ 14 ____ 43 ____ 36.0 ________ Earthshine ________ 25,00

t16____ 22 ____ 26 _____ 28.0 _______ noname_weather __25.00    

18 ____ 34 ____ 16 ____ 18.0 _________Midlands Ice Age__  26.00

19 ____ 26 ____ 29 ____ 28.75 _______ SteveB _____________ 27.38  

20 ____ 35____ 20 ____ 23.25 _______ virtualsphere ______ 29.13

21 ____ 56 ____ 03 _____2.75 ________ Bobd29 ___________ 29.38

22 ____ 15 ____ 44 ____ 44.5 ________ The PIT ____________ 29.75

23 ____ 36 ____ 25 ____ 23.75 _______ J 10 ________________ 29.88

24 ____ 46 ____ 12 ____ 14.0 ________ DiagonalRedLine ___30.00

25 ____ 11 ____ 52 ____ 51.0 ________ Mr Maunder _______ 31.00

26 ____ 45 ____ 18 ____ 17.75 _______ Weather Observer __31.38

27 ____ 61 ____ 04 ____ 3.25 ________ Mulzy ______________ 32.13 

28 ____ 17 ____ 56 ____ 48.5 ________ stewfox ____________ 32.75

29 ____t47 ____ 19 ____ 19.0 ________ snowray ___________ 33.00

30 ____ 43 ____ 27 ____ 27.5 ________ freeze ______________ 35.25  

t31____ 32 ____ 39 ____ 39.5 _________Wold Topper ______ 35.75

t31____t37 ____ 32 ____ 34.5 ________ BlastFromThePast__35.75   

33 ____ 24 ____ 49 ____ 49.25 _______ rwtwm _____________ 36,63 

34 ____ 70 ____ 05 _____ 5.0 ________ Emmett Garland ____ 37.50

35 ____ 40 ____ 34 ____ 35.25 ________dancerwithwings __ 37.63

36 ____ 41 ____ 42 ____ 35.5_________ John88b ____________ 38.25    

37 ____ 29 ____ 57 ____ 52.5 ________ WxEnthusiast91 ____ 40.75

38 ____ 67 ____ 17 ____ 18.5 ________ Jeff C ________________42.75

39 ____ 33 ____ 55 ____ 53.75 _______ Moorlander ________ 43.38                

40 ____ 23 ____ 65 ____ 64.0 _________ SouthLondonCold _ 43.50 __ __ ONE CONTEST WILL EXIT FIRST DIV CET IF NO MARCH ENTRY

41 ____ 44 ____ 41 ____ 43.75 _______ shillitocettwo _______ 43.88 

42 ____ 39 ____ 51 ____ 50.5 _________ Summer Blizzard __ 44.75                   

43 ____t53 ____ 38 ____ 37.75 ________ Summer 18 ________ 45.38

44 ____ 78____ 14 ____ 17.25 _________ jonboy _____________47.63   

45 ____ 19 ____ 78 ____ 76.5 __________Metwatch _________ 47.75

46 ____ 73 ____ 24 ____ 23.5 __________ Stationary Front ___48.25  

47 ____ 58 ____40 ____ 39.75 ________ SLEETY _____________ 48.88

48 ____ 69 ____ 28 ____ 30.5 ____ Methuselah (EdStone) __ 49.75    

49 ____ 52____ 50 ____ 48.75 _________Summer Shower ___ 50.38 

50 ____ 63 ____ 46 ____ 39.0 _________ DCee ______________ 51.00 __ __ ONE CONTEST WILL EXIT FIRST DIV CET IF NO MARCH ENTRY

51 ____ 57 ____ 45 ____ 45.5 _________ Let It Snow! ________ 51.25

52 ____ 82 ____ 31 ____ 32.0 __________ Godber1 __________ 52.00   

53 ____ 28 ____ 77 ____ 77.0 _________ Matt Tarrant _______ 52.50 __ __ ONE CONTEST WILL EXIT FIRST DIV CET IF NO MARCH ENTRY

54 ____t74 ____ 33 ____ 35.5 ________ Weather26 _________ 54.75 

55 ____ 31 ____ 79 ____ 79.0 _________ pegg24 _____________ 55.00 __________55 __ Walsall Wood Snow 

t56____ 30 ____ 82 ____ 82.0 _________ Captain Shortwave _ 56.00 __ __ ONE CONTEST WILL EXIT FIRST DIV CET IF NO MARCH ENTRY

t56____t53 ____ 62 ____ 59.0 _________ Tidal Wave _________ 56.00 __ __ ONE CONTEST WILL EXIT FIRST DIV CET IF NO MARCH ENTRY

58 ____ 88 ____ 23 ____ 24.75 ________ Polar Gael _________ 56.38

59 ____ 42 ____ 72 ____ 72.0 _________ sunny_vale _________  57.00 __ __ ONE CONTEST WILL EXIT FIRST DIV CET IF NO MARCH ENTRY

60 ____ 60 ____ 60 ____ 54.75 ________ Kirkcaldy Weather__ 57.38

61 ____t47 ____ 73 ____ 68.5 _________ Frigid _______________ 57.75

62 ____ 86 ____ 30 ____ 30.5 _________ daniel* _____________ 58.25

t63____ 62 ____ 61 ____ 56.0 _________ Mark Neal ___________ 59.00 __ __ ONE CONTEST WILL EXIT FIRST DIV CET IF NO MARCH ENTRY

t63____t80____ 48 ____ 38.0 ____ I Remember Atlantic 252 _ 59.00

65 ____ 68 ____ 66 ____ 52.0 __________ catbrainz ___________ 60.00 

66 ____ 51 ____ 71 ____ 70.0 __________ S Bragg _____________60.50 __ __ ONE CONTEST WILL EXIT FIRST DIV CET IF NO MARCH ENTRY

67 ____ 50 ____ 75 ____ 75.0 __________ vizzy2004 __________ 62.50 __ __ ONE CONTEST WILL EXIT FIRST DIV CET IF NO MARCH ENTRY

t68____ 79 ____ 53 ____ 53.0 ___________ syed2878 __________ 66.00 _________ 65 _ Quicksilver1989 (CET only)                                         

t68____72 ____ 63 ____ 60.0 ___________ Cumbrian Ice _______66.00 __ __ ONE CONTEST WILL EXIT FIRST DIV CET IF NO MARCH ENTRY

70 ____ 59 ____ 80 ____ 74.5 ___________chilly milly __________ 66.75

t71____ 84 ____ 58 ____ 51.0 ___________ snowboy111 _______ 67.50 __ __ ONE CONTEST WILL EXIT FIRST DIV CET IF NO MARCH ENTRY

t71____ 95____ 47 ____ 40.0 ___________ Robbie Garrett _____ 67.50 __ __ ONE CONTEST WILL EXIT FIRST DIV CET IF NO MARCH ENTRY

73 ____76 ____ 64 ____ 62.0 ___________ Stargazer ___________ 69.00 __ __ ONE CONTEST WILL EXIT FIRST DIV CET IF NO MARCH ENTRY

74 ____ 64 ____ 81 ____ 74.75 _________ Neil N ______________ 69.38 _________ 71 _  Rob79812010 (CET only)

75 ____ 66 ____ 76 ____ 75.0 __________ coldest winter ______ 70.50 __ __ ONE CONTEST WILL EXIT FIRST DIV CET IF NO MARCH ENTRY

76 ____ 96 ____ 54 ____ 48.0 __________ snowblind __________ 72.00 __ __ ONE CONTEST WILL EXIT FIRST DIV CET IF NO MARCH ENTRY

77 ____93 ____ 59 ____ 52.0 ___________ Booferking __________72.50 __ __ ONE CONTEST WILL EXIT FIRST DIV CET IF NO MARCH ENTRY

____________________________________________________________________________t74 _ Kentish Man (CET only)

78 ____ 87____ 67 ____ 64.0 __________ Kentspur ____________ 75.50 __ __ ONE CONTEST WILL EXIT FIRST DIV CET IF NO MARCH ENTRY

79 ____t80 ____ 74 ____ 74.0 _________  icykev _______________ 77.00 __ __ ONE CONTEST WILL EXIT FIRST DIV CET IF NO MARCH ENTRY

___________________________________________________________________________ 77 Kasim Awan (one contest, will exit if no Mar entry)

t80____89 ____ 70 ____ 68.0 __________ Fozfoster_____________ 78.50 __ __ ONE CONTEST WILL EXIT FIRST DIV CET IF NO MARCH ENTRY

t80____91 ____ 68 ____ 66.0 _________Ross Andrew Hemphill_ 78.50 __ __ ONE CONTEST WILL EXIT FIRST DIV CET IF NO MARCH ENTRY

82 ____92 ____ 69 ____ 67.0 _________ Andrew Burden _______ 79.50 __ __ ONE CONTEST WILL EXIT FIRST DIV CET IF NO MARCH ENTRY

___________________________________________________________________________ 83 _ Andrew R (one contest, will exit if no Mar entry)

___________________________________________________________________________ 85 _ Froze were the Days (one contest etc)

83 ____ 90 ____ 83 ____ 83.0 ______ Connor Bailey Degnan __ 86.50 __ __ ONE CONTEST WILL EXIT FIRST DIV CET IF NO MARCH ENTRY

84 ____ 94____ 84 ____ 84.0 ______  Warwickshire Lad _______ 89.00 __ __ ONE CONTEST WILL EXIT FIRST DIV CET IF NO MARCH ENTRY

___________________________________________________________________________ 97 _ ThunderHellCat (one contest etc)

 

Edited March 2, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[February1978]

Hi Roger - how was the January EWP settled? Hadley never updated their graph - was a final value published? (I have an interest of course.....!)

TIA

Andy