Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[steveinsussex]

25 minutes ago, virtualsphere said:

I think this is a US Twitter account - I wondered if they were referring to the super Nino of 1998 given their previous tweet: 

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

11 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

 

A strong Nino would sound the death knell on next winter already. Hopefully it goes strong through summer and autumn then subsides.

I think 09/10 was a moderate Modoki El Niño so that scenario could be workable.

Edited February 28, 2023 by CreweCold

[DJ Fart]

58 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Can I order #1 please for the largest urban masses  

That or #4, please!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Nice amounts of snowfall!

[cold snap]

13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

A strong Nino would sound the death knell on next winter already. Hopefully it goes strong through summer and autumn then subsides.

I think 09/10 was a moderate Modoki El Niño so that scenario could be workable.

Winter 2023/24 is over 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Looking good gang.

Edit..anyone getting stressed over background signals for next winter must be barmy..we are getting stressed out over the next 5 days,without having to worry over 10 months time!

Edited February 28, 2023 by MATTWOLVES 3

[MJB]

All on track , quite disappointing from the 21:55 , snow for some  ( no graphics ) emphasis was on mild weather getting in next week . 

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Looking good gang.

Better, the cold air heading more south rather than filtering west here at T138 - bottom image latest run 

Edited February 28, 2023 by Ali1977

[January Snowstorm]

Not liking the early vibes here, Greeny high even further West. Let's see how it develops later....

[Ali1977]

Snow/sleet showers widespread as early as Monday

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Not liking the early vibes here, Greeny high even further West. Let's see how it develops later....

Stronger high though, at 144 you can see this run is better with the direction of the incoming cold - compared to the last GFS run anyway 

[Rain All Night]

Cold fronts incoming:

[MJB]

Cold air is actually further South than the 12z 

[MJB]

Just entered FI at 168 and this is better than the 12z cold further South , just waiting for the battle 

[DAVE_ALLEN]

We need to keep an eye on this cheeky short wave. It’s dragging some milder air around the high, potentially squeezing through a gap between the two highs.  We don’t want it developing too much or creating a significant warm sector. 

[MJB]

Eastern areas are going to do very well , my fear as per December we won't get much inland . Need some kinks in the isobars to turn up

[Mark wheeler]

Cmon Goofus 

[cold snap]

Northerly or North Easterly ?

 

[Ali1977]

Cold air still pushing south - serious cold to our NE - and although the charts look like it’s collapsing a little - it isn’t regarding the cold air

[January Snowstorm]

Cold run, colder than the 12z.

But, its fraught with danger and a new trend of weaker heights over Greenland is not a good one imo. We need yellows over Greeny not washed up Greens fading over time.

Am still hopeful of a notable event, but ain't going to be simple getting there and in my view we have backed off the more robust charts of this time yday

[MJB]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Cold run, colder than the 12z.

But, its fraught with danger and a new trend of weaker heights over Greenland is not a good one imo. We need yellows over Greeny not washed up Greens fading over time.

Am still hopeful of a notable event, but ain't going to be simple getting there and in my view we have backed off the more robust charts of this time yday

It's just the OP and will always show a variation no matter how different 

[Ali1977]

Can we draw this in

[January Snowstorm]

Indeed by Thursday the Greeny high has all but vanished similar to ECM. A 48 hour cold event looks certain tonight, but a robust week long affair is looking very fragile tonight.

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS is very slack…not sure where the snowfall is coming from in that set up, apart from windward NE coasts.

Would be cold at night but probably feel ok in any sunshine during the day, given the slack flow.

[MJB]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Indeed by Thursday the Greeny high has all but vanished similar to ECM. A 48 hour cold event looks certain tonight, but a robust week long affair is looking very fragile tonight.

After a few frames of the GFS  OP run .................what's your name Luke  

Dear o Dear 

Just now, CreweCold said:

GFS is very slack…not sure where the snowfall is coming from in that set up, apart from windward NE coasts.

Would be cold at night but probably feel ok in any sunshine during the day, given the slack flow.

Yep far too slack isn't it ? but it was in December and we had a covering of snow , so little disturbances can crop up 

Just a variation though 

[seabreeze86]

I don’t think the OPs have a clue to be honest some strange charts that’s for sure 

Pick the bones out of this